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Tropical Storm Richard

Tropical Storm Richard 5 Day Path

Published on October 22, 2010 5:06 PM | Comments



Tropical Storm Richard

Published on October 22, 2010 4:52 PM | Comments

Mostly a Central America/Mexico storm:

TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010

THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE OF RICHARD HAS SOMEWHAT
DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
SHRUNK AND BECOME DISTORTED...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRESENT IN
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...ASCAT DATA FROM
1536 UTC CONFIRMS THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION PRESENT ON THE LAST
HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FROM THE STORM. DESPITE THESE CONDITIONS...NOAA BUOY 42057 HAS
REPORTED PEAK ONE-MINUTE WINDS OF 35-37 KT DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. DVORAK VALUES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB... AND 61 KT
FROM THE CIMSS ADT. GIVEN THE ABOVE DATA...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
SET BETWEEN THE BUOY AND THE SATELLITE DATA TO 40 KT.

THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS CENTER. THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST...AT
ABOUT 4 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN
ACCELERATING MOTION TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE STRONGER
RIDGE...THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER...AND THE NHC
FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO A
TROUGH ERODING THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE.

AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONCERNED...RICHARD HAS
STRUGGLED WITH DRY AIR AND SOME WESTERLY SHEAR MUCH LONGER THAN THE
MODELS...AND FORECASTERS...EXPECTED. VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME UNDERCUTTING OF THE CIRRUS LAYER...WHICH MATCHES UP
WITH RECENT G-IV DROPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF RICHARD OF WESTERLY
WINDS FROM 250-300 MB. THESE WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO REVERSE TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITHIN 24 HOURS.
THIS CHANGE MAY HERALD AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE...WHICH COULD BE
RAPID IN NATURE GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST AND THE WARM
DEEP WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE NHC FORECAST IS
INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH AS
THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH MAKES RICHARD A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL. CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO
HOSTILE FOR MUCH REINTENSIFICATION OF RICHARD.



Tropical Drepression 19

Published on October 21, 2010 8:47 AM | Comments

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY

Looks like this will be a Yucatan Peninsula event for the most part:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH
THE SHEAR SEEMS TO BE RELAXING AS INDICATED BY MOTION OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS...THE CENTER IS STILL LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...INDICATING
THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BE A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...AN AIR
FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS...AND I WOULD RATHER
WAIT FOR THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM TO A
TROPICAL STORM. HAVING SAID THAT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR OR OVER
THE DEPRESSION IN A DAY OR SO...AND A TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE
DISTANT FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THESE CONDITIONS
AND THE PREVAILING WARM OCEAN WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL AND THE HWRF. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED BY
THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.


THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135
DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS...EMBEDDED IN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS.
LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...ALL GLOBAL MODELS LIFT OUT THE CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND REPLACE IT WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS NEW
STEERING PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH...AND IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE GFS...THE UK MODELS AND
CONTINUITY. I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS
BECAUSE THE GFDL...THE HWRF AND THE ECMWF TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD
THE NORTH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE TRACK HAS TO BE ADJUSTED
NORTHWARD LATER ON.