August 2010 | Main | October 2010
September 29, 2010
Tropical Storm Nicole dissipates
From Reuters:
The storm triggered deadly floods in Jamaica, where two elderly men and a family of six were drowned.
Tropical Depression Aims at Cuba, Then Florida
September 28, 2010
TD 16 Storm Path
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
This needs to be watched - could turn into a named storm (Nicole) soon and looks to impact the Cayman Islands (now), Cuba, The Bahamas and possible Florida:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED A
SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SURFACE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CUBA AND
TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. BY 48
HOURS...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN 72 HOURS OR SOONER AS THE MODELS
DEPICT A NEW BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 020/9. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OCCURING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. IF THIS STRUCTURE PERSISTS...THE TRACK OF THE CENTER
WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT SINCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.
September 24, 2010
Lisa & Matthew
There are a couple of named storms out there:
Lisa is a non-event, it is very far out in the Atlantic and expected to stay there.
Matthew is a tropical storm but it is moving almost dead west and is really a concern for Central America and Mexico, and not the Caribbean Islands. We'll keep an eye on this one and post more about it soon.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 295 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW...LOCATED ABOUT 170 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON MATTHEW ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON MATTHEW
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5.
September 16, 2010
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IGOR INTENSIFIES AGAIN
Igor is a monster - there is a NOAA buoy report of 29 foot waves - and the buoy is far from the storm. This is still not looking good for Bermuda unfortunately:
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST THU SEP 16 2010
MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT WITH IGOR IS COMPLETE. THE NEW EYEWALL APPEARS TO BE
CONSOLIDATING AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 30-35 N MI AND IS PRODUCING
RATHER DEEP CONVECTION...SUGGESTING THE INTENSITY IS INCREASING
AGAIN. A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES GIVES AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 125 KT.
A LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER IS FAVORABLE
FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EXACT INTENSITY OF IGOR WILL BE PRIMARILY
DICTATED BY EYEWALL CYCLES...WHICH ARE WELL BEYOND OUR FORECAST
ABILITIES. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SLOW
WEAKENING IS THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION...AND THE NHC FORECAST REFLECT
THIS. HOWEVER...IT IS MORE IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE...AND THE NHC FORECAST...KEEPS IGOR AS A LARGE AND
DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNSTEADY 300/6. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WEAK TROUGHING ALONG ABOUT 70W SHOULD RECURVE
THE CYCLONE IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS
HOW QUICKLY IGOR ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE MID-LATITUDES.
SINCE THE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS RATHER FLAT...
THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE MODELS TO SHOW WEAKER FLOW NEAR
IGOR...AND CONSEQUENTLY DELAY THE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...
ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH REGARDS TO HOW CLOSE
IGOR COMES TO BERMUDA...THE ECMWF IS NOW THE MOST EASTERN MODEL
AFTER BEING THE WESTERNMOST YESTERDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO
THAT MODEL SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE TODAY...WHICH ALLOWS
IGOR TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE EARLY ON AND EVENTUALLY PASS A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST OF BERMUDA. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS
WELL CLUSTERED ON A TRACK CLOSE TO THAT ISLAND...AND LITTLE CHANGE
HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK NEAR BERMUDA. SINCE THIS IS
SUCH A LARGE HURRICANE...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON
BERMUDA...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW CLOSE THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS...WILL COME TO THAT ISLAND.
SO FAR...NOAA BUOY 41044 HAS REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 45
KT...GUSTING TO 56 KT...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 995
MB...AND A SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 29 FT. HOWEVER...THE WORST
IS YET TO COME FOR THAT STATION...AS IGOR WILL MOVE VERY CLOSE TO
THE BUOY TONIGHT.
September 14, 2010
Igor a strong Category 4 Hurricane
24 hours ago the NHC reports had Igor weakening a bit - that didn't happen:
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010
CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE COOLED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND THE EYE HAS ALSO WARMED AND BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN
BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SEVERAL DISTINCT
VORTICES INSIDE THE EYE WERE ALSO NOTED...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN
SEEN WITH PAST HURRICANES THAT WERE NEAR CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT AND IS SUPPORTED BY
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5/127 KT FROM SAB...3-HR
AVERAGE ODT VALUES OF T6.7/133 KT FROM TAFB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT
VALUES OF T6.5/127 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/07...BASED ON A 12-HR AVERAGE OF
SMOOTHING OUT THE MANY TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES IN THE TRACK. IGOR MAY
BRIEFLY WOBBLE BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
THE GENERAL MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THAT
THROUGH 72 HOURS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING QUICKLY IN
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND THE NORTH
ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BETWEEN 60W-70W LONGITUDE ABOUT EVERY 24-36 HOURS. AS A RESULT...
IGOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD IN 96-120 HOURS AS DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF IGOR STRENGTHENS BETWEEN IT AND A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH FORECAST OT BE NEAR 30N/40W BY THAT TIME.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE. BY
120 HOURS...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BERMUDA TO BRING ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THAT
ISLAND.
IGOR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 29C...AND MAINTAIN A
VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A
RESULT...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT DURING THE CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM PERIOD. HOWEVER...OWING TO THE LARGE SIZE OF IGOR...ITS
STRONG CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY...AND ITS RELATIVELY SLOW FORWARD
MOTION OF LESS THAN 10 KT...SOME COLD UPWELLING MAY OCCUR BENEATH
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE AND CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE
DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE ALSO A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. REGARDLESS...
IGOR IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS-LGEM INTENSITY MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AT FOUR AND FIVE DAYS MAY BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED
BY THE REPRESENTATION OF THE WARM CORE OF THE HURRICANE IN THE GFS
MODEL. IN ADDITION...ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A VERY
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY FIVE...AND SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS HELD A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
Hurricane Julia 5 Day Cone
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD TOPS
SURROUNDING THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAVE WARMED A LITTLE...AND
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY AND T-NUMBERS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. AS STATED
EARLIER...FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER CORE EVOLUTION ARE
PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LARGE-SCALE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 48
TO 72 HOURS. THEREFORE AT LEAST SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH
THIS REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGH DAY 3 AND IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
LGEM MODEL AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
SATELLITE FIXES OF THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF IGOR INDICATE THAT THE
MUCH-AWAITED TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST HAS OCCURRED...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/7. VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS
BEEN MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK ON THIS PACKAGE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGES AND GLOBAL MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOW A BROAD TROUGH JUST
EAST OF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THIS FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RESULTING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE U.K. MET. OFFICE TRACK...WHICH IS
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A WESTERN OUTLIER.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE 5-DAY POINT...SINCE
TRACK ERRORS COULD EASILY BE A FEW HUNDRED MILES AT THAT FORECAST
INTERVAL. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY WHETHER IGOR
WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THAT ISLAND.
Igor & Julia
The track can always change - but - it is not looking promising at the moment for Bermuda. Let's hope that Igor gets steered one way or another away from this island. We also now have Hurricane Julia tracking behind Igor. The NHC is pretty confident that both of these storms will take a northern track, and Julia at the moment looks to not to be a threat to land anywhere.
September 11, 2010
Tropical Storm Igor 5 Day Path
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 11 2010
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW A BANDING EYE PRESENTATION WITH IGOR. WHILE THE
WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN DVORAK
T-NUMBERS...IT IS PREMATURE TO LOWER THE INTENSITY AND 60 KT WILL BE
KEPT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS PRESENT...IT HAS DECREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY AND IS FORECAST TO FURTHER DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. AROUND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
WATERS WARMER THAN 28C. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTINGLY...
WHILE THE STATISTICAL MODELS MAKE IGOR A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING WITH IGOR BEFORE
RESTRENGTHENING THE CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS. AT THIS POINT...I AM
INCLINED TO LEAN ON THE STATISTICAL MODELS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD GIVEN THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...AND HAVE RAISED
THE WINDS FOR THAT TIME.
MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT AND
IS MOVING 275/17. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
WESTWARD TRACK OF IGOR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING REMAINS
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE WESTERN PART OF THE
RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD ALLOW IGOR TO GAIN A BIT MORE LATITUDE AND SLOW DOWN. WHILE
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE ARE
SOME LARGE SPEED DIFFERENCES...AS THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER
THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...ATTEMPTING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODEL TENDENCIES OF BEING
TOO SLOW AND POLEWARD WITH LOW-LATITUDE SYSTEMS.
Tropical Weather Update
Igor looks to become a major hurricane in the coming week, but the current forecast track does take it north of the Caribbean basin. Whether it impacts the Bahamas, Bermuda, or the east coast of the U.S. is still a little too far away for the NHC to predict.
Also of note is an area of storm in the southern part of the Caribbean - this is sort of a rare spot for a storm to develop from but it looks like it will become a storm eventually in the Caribbean basin - meaning the Leeward and Windward Islands will be clear of it already, but it could possibly impact Cuba, Jamaica, the Caymans, etc. Again - it is early to see where the NHC puts the path of this potential storm.
Lastly there is a vigorous wave coming off of Africa they are watching. The official take is below:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 915 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
September 8, 2010
Tropical Storm Igor...
Is in the house. It is very far off, but it is expected to become a major hurricane. Best case scenario at the moment is that is stays north of the Caribbean. We'll be posting more soon as it becomes available:
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST WED SEP 08 2010
THE LOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS PERSISTED
LONG ENOUGH FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A
1042 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE SET TO THAT VALUE. EASTERLY SHEAR IS PRESENT
OVER IGOR...BUT IS FORECAST TO LIGHTEN IN A DAY OR SO. ALL
RELIABLE MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION INTO A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BECAUSE OF THE SHEAR...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL ONLY SHOW RELATIVELY SLOW STRENGTHENING...BELOW THE GUIDANCE
INITIALLY...BUT THE FORECAST ENDS UP CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AT DAY
5. IF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE PATTERN SEEN IN MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS VERIFY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A WESTWARD MOTION AT AN INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...A TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC COULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE...FORCING THE STORM TO MOVE
MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SHORT-TERM
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IGOR WILL INTERACT WITH THE LARGE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
September 7, 2010
Looking better this morning
Gaston (or the remains of Gaston) finally appears to have blown apart, and there are a couple of other waves very far away off the coast of Africa. So things are looking clear for the Caribbean region for now.
That being said - don't forget we are in the height of hurricane season. Make sure you keep up to date if you are a resident of or traveling to the Caribbean.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE...LOCATED ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
HARLINGEN TEXAS.
1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GASTON. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY DEFINED AND THE ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
3. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
September 6, 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN...LOCATED ABOUT 205 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO
MEXICO.
1. THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON...LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BEGIN TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.
September 5, 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010
The former Gaston needs watching:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THE LOW COULD
REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS IF ADVISORIES ARE
RE-INITIATED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
September 4, 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010
September is traditionally the busiest time of hurricane season, and this season is no different. The remnants of Gaston are making noise, and unfortunately the earlier track had this heading straight into the Caribbean basin. We'll have to wait and see if it reforms into a Tropical Storm again and what the new track is, but it bears watching. There is also another potential system behind it.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 105 MILES
EAST-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.
1. THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
FORM NEAR THE CENTER...THEN ADVISORIES COULD BE RE-INITIATED ON
THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.
3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
4. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
September 1, 2010
3 Storms at once
3 tropical storms at one time is really too much to handle - and as I write this, there appears to be a large wave coming off the coast of Africa yet again. First the good news for the Caribbean - Earl is gone from the region, and Fiona is quickly pulling away.
The bad news is newly formed Gaston. Sometimes with this much activity there isn't a lot of fuel left for storms that come behind others on the same track, but the NHC is talking about this reaching hurricane status even though there is a lot of dry air around.
It is a little early for the tracking but at this point it appears to be heading toward the northern Leeward Islands. The best hope is that the ridge that steered Fiona north is still in place by the time Gaston gets close and it follows the same path. But it needs to be watched closely for now.
GOES Floater 3 Infrared Satellite
Tropical Storm Gaston 5 Day Path
Tropical Storm Gaston Open Thread
Use this thread to ask questions or leave comments on Tropical Storm Gaston.
Atlantic Water Temperature
This is a recent photo - you can see the remains of Danielle, Earl, what is to become Fiona, and the system behind. The red indicates the warmth of the water, which feeds the strength of these hurricanes.
