Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



2011 Hurricane Archive

Possible storm brewing in the western Caribbean

Published on August 18, 2011 12:55 PM | Comments

If this does turn into a storm the early models have it tracking west, so it shouldn't be a threat to the Caribbean islands:

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THIS REGION
ALSO INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE FALLING. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...BELIZE...AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE WAVE THIS
AFTERNOON.

2. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



Tropical Storms Cindy and Bret

Published on July 21, 2011 8:17 AM | Comments

There are two weak and small systems in the Atlantic, both no threat to the Caribbean region and both moving away from any landfall. These storms are basically only the concerns of ships:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 21/0900 UTC IS ABOUT
400 NM TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...NEAR 32.8N 72.6W. BRET IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD 08 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 45 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 31N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY AT 21/0900 UTC IS NEAR 36.3N
51.6W. CINDY IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 20 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON
CINDY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 39N
TO 41N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 33N
TO 35N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N
BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. ITCZ ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CUBA...TO A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 50 NM TO THE WEST OF
JAMAICA...TO 13N79W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND A 19N74W
CYCLONIC CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W TO
THE SOUTH OF 23N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG
16N...TO 18N10W 13N16W 7N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N24W
TO 6N30W 5N40W AND 6N44W...BECOMING INDISTINCT AFTER 6N44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 30W...AND FROM
3N TO 7N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...INCLUDING ACROSS PARTS OF
SURINAME AND GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR
25N101W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 85W AND 106W IN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF MEXICO. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO NEAR 20N90W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND 93W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY
FLAT AND WEAK...AS BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE
AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THIS
BASIN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N74W OFF
THE COAST OF HAITI. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THIS CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 81W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN HAITI AND
81W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N
TO THE WEST OF 72W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CUBA...AND THEN BEYOND A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 50 NM TO THE
WEST OF JAMAICA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
CLUSTERS...IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W IN COLOMBIA
AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN COAST...AND ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM BRET IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 NM TO THE WEST OF
BERMUDA. THE POSITION OF BRET IS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N39W
TO 28N47W...TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ALONG 28N. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 19N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF
27N BETWEEN 67W AND 80W...IN THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 19N74W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER.



2011 Atlantic Hurricane Names

Published on May 31, 2011 6:13 AM | Comments

Here is the list from the NHC:

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney