Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



Possible storm brewing in the western Caribbean

Published on August 18, 2011 12:55 PM | Comments

If this does turn into a storm the early models have it tracking west, so it shouldn't be a threat to the Caribbean islands:

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THIS REGION
ALSO INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE FALLING. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...BELIZE...AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE WAVE THIS
AFTERNOON.

2. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



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