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Tropical Storm Bret

TROPICAL STORM BRET

Published on July 19, 2011 2:11 PM | Comments

Sorry we are a little late to this storm (family issues!) but as regular readers know we really only focus on Caribbean storms:

TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER MEAGER IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRET THIS
MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT RECENTLY THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN
ON THE WANE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPOSED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SMALL
DENSE OVERCAST. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY A
GENEROUS ESTIMATE. BRET IS BEING IMPACTED BY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR AND IS ENTRAINING RATHER DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN HOSTILE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS...IF
NOT SOONER. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 030/7. VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BRET SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LATER ON. THE FORECAST
SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...ASSUMING BRET SURVIVES THAT LONG.