Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



Hurricane Ophelia

Ophelia now a hurricane!

Published on September 29, 2011 6:29 PM | Comments

It took a while - but after meandering around a bit, Ophelia is a hurricane. It is forecast to head north and away from the Caribbean - we'll see! This could be an issue for Bermuda however...

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS CONTINUED TO ACQUIRE ORGANIZATION. THERE IS A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THERE HAS BEEN
AN EYE FEATURE INTERMITTENTLY APPEARING ON VISIBLE IMAGES...BUT
THERE IS DEFINITELY A DISTINCT ONE AT THE MID-LEVELS ON EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 4.0
ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS BASIS...OPHELIA HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO HURRICANE STATUS...THE FOURTH OF THE 2011 SEASON.

OPHELIA HAS KICKED OUT THE SHEAR AND GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL
LGEM...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS FORECAST A STRONGER HURRICANE.
BEYOND 72 HOURS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...
AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN WEAKENING...AND MOST LIKELY OPHELIA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY
96 HOURS OR SOONER.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT
8 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING TO REPORT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FOR THE NEXT
2 TO 3 DAYS. OPHELIA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH BY FRIDAY
AND THEN RECURVE NEAR THE LATITUDE OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BARELY REACHES BERMUDA
AT THIS TIME.



Tropical Storm Ophelia Open Thread

Published on September 21, 2011 9:40 AM | Comments

Use this post to ask questions or leave comments about Tropical Storm Ophelia.



Tropical Storm Ophelia 5 Day Track

Published on September 21, 2011 9:34 AM | Comments



Tropical Storm Ophelia

Published on September 21, 2011 9:30 AM | Comments

Tropical Storm Ophelia has formed in the Atlantic and looks like it will be another storm that tracks through the Leeward Islands. It is not forecast to become a hurricane any time soon, but you should keep and eye on it if you are in the region:

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2011

CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LARGE CIRCULATION HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE
CYCLONE HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT...BASED ON DATA FROM A SHIP
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AHEAD OF OPHELIA DOES NOT FAVOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY
OVER THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE
IN A FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.
MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND CALLS
FOR ONLY A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER
IT APPEARS THAT OPHELIA IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC
ADVISORY. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER 72
HOURS...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A
LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST
LIES BETWEEN THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.