June 2011 | Main | August 2011
July 31, 2011
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
455 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES.
1. UPDATED...COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS HAVE LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF DATA
RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT
...ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED
TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...AND WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR MONDAY
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY
SHORT NOTICE...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
July 30, 2011
Composite model track not looking good
This is the composite track this morning - if this storm does become a hurricane and stays anywhere near this course, several islands could be severely affected obviously:
Tropical depression looking more ominous this morning
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON FORMER
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DON...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN LOW
IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO ITS
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
July 29, 2011
Tropical wave could bring heavy rain to Puerto Rico, Hispaniola
Sun-Sentinel (blog)
With Tropical Storm Cindy and ex-Tropical Storm Bret nonfactors, the wave is worth watching because its moving west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph - and it's to the southeast of the US coast. For now, the hurricane center gives it a 30 percent chance of... more here.
Tropical Wave
This could be something that the Caribbean may have to worry about -
1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH.
Tropical Storm Don is a non-event for the Caribbean as it approaches landfall in Texas.
July 21, 2011
Tropical Storms Cindy and Bret
There are two weak and small systems in the Atlantic, both no threat to the Caribbean region and both moving away from any landfall. These storms are basically only the concerns of ships:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 21/0900 UTC IS ABOUT
400 NM TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...NEAR 32.8N 72.6W. BRET IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD 08 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 45 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 31N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY AT 21/0900 UTC IS NEAR 36.3N
51.6W. CINDY IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 20 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON
CINDY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 39N
TO 41N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 33N
TO 35N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N
BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. ITCZ ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CUBA...TO A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 50 NM TO THE WEST OF
JAMAICA...TO 13N79W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND A 19N74W
CYCLONIC CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.
A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W TO
THE SOUTH OF 23N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.
...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG
16N...TO 18N10W 13N16W 7N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N24W
TO 6N30W 5N40W AND 6N44W...BECOMING INDISTINCT AFTER 6N44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 30W...AND FROM
3N TO 7N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...INCLUDING ACROSS PARTS OF
SURINAME AND GUYANA.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR
25N101W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 85W AND 106W IN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF MEXICO. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO NEAR 20N90W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND 93W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY
FLAT AND WEAK...AS BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE
AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THIS
BASIN.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N74W OFF
THE COAST OF HAITI. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THIS CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 81W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN HAITI AND
81W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N
TO THE WEST OF 72W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CUBA...AND THEN BEYOND A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 50 NM TO THE
WEST OF JAMAICA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
CLUSTERS...IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W IN COLOMBIA
AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN COAST...AND ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 80W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM BRET IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 NM TO THE WEST OF
BERMUDA. THE POSITION OF BRET IS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N39W
TO 28N47W...TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ALONG 28N. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 19N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF
27N BETWEEN 67W AND 80W...IN THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 19N74W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER.
July 19, 2011
TROPICAL STORM BRET
Sorry we are a little late to this storm (family issues!) but as regular readers know we really only focus on Caribbean storms:
TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER MEAGER IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRET THIS
MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT RECENTLY THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN
ON THE WANE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPOSED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SMALL
DENSE OVERCAST. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY A
GENEROUS ESTIMATE. BRET IS BEING IMPACTED BY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR AND IS ENTRAINING RATHER DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN HOSTILE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS...IF
NOT SOONER. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE.
INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 030/7. VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BRET SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LATER ON. THE FORECAST
SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...ASSUMING BRET SURVIVES THAT LONG.
