July 2011 | Main | September 2011
August 30, 2011
Tropical Storm Katia is out there...
Tropical Storm Katia is out in the Atlantic. Most models have it becoming a major hurricane, but tracking to the north of the Caribbean Sea. It is very far off to tell, but it could possible be something for Bermuda and/or the Bahamas to worry about. Again, this is why we constantly push Trip Insurance on this website - if you don't have insurance before a storm is named, it won't cover you - and the season is looking active as we come up to the peak hurricane month of September. If you are traveling to the region for any reason this coming month, make sure you get your insurance NOW.
Katia looks like it could be another east coast storm - but I will be gone from NJ before it gets here!
TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2011
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED OVERNIGHT...WITH
A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NOW SITUATED TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. THE 06Z DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 2.5/35 KT...AND ON
THIS BASIS THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE
STRUCTURE OF KATIA IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 15-20 KT OF
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. THIS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO...AND AFTER THAT TIME STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD COMMENCE
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD THIS CYCLE...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS AS WELL. KATIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING TO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
INCLUDES THE HFIP INTENSITY AIDS.
A TIMELY AMSR-E PASS FROM 0326Z WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH WAS A BIT NORTH
OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/15...AS
KATIA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
CONTINUATION OF THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AT
DAYS 4 AND 5...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BUT THERE ARE SOME FORWARD SPEED
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS ON THE FAST SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE AND THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE A SLOW OUTLIER. FOR THIS
CYCLE THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS...
AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE NHC FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR OR A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
Tropical Storm Katia 5 Day Track
Tropical Storm Katia Open Thread
Ask questions or leave comments about Tropical Storm Katia here.
August 27, 2011
Cat Island, Hurricane Irene
There is a little bit at the end of this video showing Cat Island in the Bahamas:
Irene is making her way up the east coast today. I am searching for more news and video about how the Bahamas and the Turks & Caicos fared.
August 25, 2011
Dangerous Irene unleashes fury on Bahamas
From Caribbean360:
"NASSAU, Bahamas, Thursday August 25, 2011 - A large and dangerous Category 3 Hurricane Irene is unleashing its fury over the northwestern Bahamas this morning after causing flooding, damaging and destroying several homes, and disrupting electricity service in the islands in the southeast of the archipelago yesterday.The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) has reported that in Acklins, around 90 percent of the settlement of Lovely Bay had been wiped out, and house roofs and several homes were blown away. Power lines and trees were downed and residents have flocked to shelters."
August 24, 2011
Raw video of Irene from the Turks & Caicos
Eye of Irene over Crooked Island, The Bahamas
August 23, 2011
Irene Visible Satellite
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A HINT OF AN EYE... WHILE
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW AN EYEWALL THAT IS OPEN TO THE SOUTH.
THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE 77
AND 90 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KT. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE IRENE THIS MORNING HAD ISSUES WITH THE ON-BOARD RADAR.
THIS REQUIRED A CHANGE IN AIRCRAFT AND THE NEW PLANE JUST PASSED
THROUGH THE CENTER...REPORTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 980 MB...ABOUT
THE SAME AS DURING THE PREVIOUS MISSION.
A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 10-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR OVER IRENE....AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT WEAKEN THIS
SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MAKE
IRENE A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE GFDL/HWRF. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT. A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IRENE TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD IRENE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE
INCREASES BY DAY THREE...RANGING FROM THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC
STATES TO WELL OFFSHORE...WITH THE UKMET ALONG THE LEFT SIDE AND
THE GFS/NOGAPS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE
UPDATED TRACK IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF AND IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE
THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE
200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.
Irene Video
Some video news:
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
This was the 5 AM update:
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
SMOOTHING THROUGH ALL OF THE AIRCRAFT FIXES SINCE IRENE MOVED OFF
THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO MORE THAN 18 HOURS AGO YIELDS A LONG TERM
MOTION OF 295/10 KT...WHICH IS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE
23/00Z G-IV JET AIRCRAFT AND AIR FORCE C-130 DROPSONDE DATA APPEAR
TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN THE MODELS...AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLY LESS
DIFFERENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW. THE OVERWHELMING
CONSENSUS IS THAT IRENE WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH A DEVELOPING BREAK IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
LIES VERY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.
AN EARLIER RECON FLIGHT INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD ONLY FALLEN BY 2
MB DOWN TO 978 MB...AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS A RESULT...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 85 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.
IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SSTS NEAR 30C. THAT COMBINATION...ALONG WITH
EXPANDING OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...SHOULD ALLOW FOR IRENE TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ONCE THE CYCLONE
CLEARS THE EFFECTS OF HISPANIOLA...AND PROBABLY MAINTAIN MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE 5-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL MODEL INTENSITY
FORECASTS...AND CONVERSION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURES DEPICTED IN THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED BASED ON A BLEND OF RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS...SFMR WINDS...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
IRENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGER THAN AVERAGE HURRICANE. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR
AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.
August 22, 2011
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
This is turning into a beast:
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011
DATA FROM THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AROUND 1700
UTC INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND THE WINDS
HAVE NOT CHANGED DURING THE DAY. SINCE THEN...HIGH RESOLUTION
SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT IRENE
COULD BE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING. HOWEVER...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.0
AND 4.5 WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 70 KNOTS.
ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE AROUND 0000 UTC TONIGHT.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DISRUPTION OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION BY
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...WHICH PROBABLY WILL SLOW DOWN THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...ALL OF THE
INGREDIENTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR IRENE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR IRENE TO BECOME A STRONG
CATEGORY 2 OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
WIND SCALE AS IRENE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS INSIST
ON MAKING IRENE A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE WITH MINIMUM PRESSURES
AROUND 945 MB AND 952 MB...RESPECTIVELY.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11
KNOTS. CURRENTLY...THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS BEING CONTROLLED
BY A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FUTURE
TRACK WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
INDUCE A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...HAVE NOW FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE
ECMWF MODEL. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TURNING
IRENE NORTHWARD ALONG 78 OR 79 DEGREES LONGITUDE. ALTHOUGH IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE GUIDANCE TREND CONTINUES TO
LESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA BUT INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE
CAROLINAS.
DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4
TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST
TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.
Hurricane Irene headed towards The Bahamas
The Turks and Caicos and The Bahamas are low lying islands, basically sand bars and coral reefs. Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes can cause serious damage to these islands. This storm is looking potentially disastrous for these islands, and possibly for somewhere on the east coast of the U.S. if and when it makes landfall there (the models have brought it further and further east as the days have passed but they seem to be in agreement now).
Puerto Rico was was much harder hit than the Virgin Islands, which are not far away at all:
Hopefully those in the path are ready.
Irene now a Hurricane
Irene is a hurricane and forecast to become a strong and dangerous one before she leaves the region. Puerto Rico is in the path at the moment, but then Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and Bahamas are in line. Anyone on or traveling to those islands needs to be prepared immediately.
August 20, 2011
TROPICAL STORM IRENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
TROPICAL STORM IRENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
700 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FOUND A SMALL LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER JUST SOUTHWEST OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST AND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1006 MB. THE PLANE ALSO MEASURED A
MAXIMUM WIND OF 53 KT AT 1400 FT AND BELIEVABLE WINDS OF ABOUT
45 KT FROM THE SFMR. THUS ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON
TROPICAL STORM IRENE WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.
A ROUGH ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/19. A LARGE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO STEER IRENE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO
OR THREE DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THAT TIME AND CAUSE
IRENE TO GRADUALLY DECELERATE. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A TRACK GENERALLY IN THE DIRECTION OF HISPANIOLA TO THE SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO. THEREAFTER...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE. THIS COULD ALLOW IRENE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS TO BRING THE STORM NORTH OF CUBA...WHILE
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN HAVE ENOUGH RIDGING IN PLACE TO KEEP THE
STORM IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NHC FORECAST WILL SPLIT THOSE TWO
IDEAS AND LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE INITIAL VORTEX IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGES AND IT WILL
PROBABLY TAKE SOME TIME TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...IRENE IS MOVING
OVER RATHER WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT SHEAR EXPECTED. MOST OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE STORM TO A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING
HISPANIOLA...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND IS RATHER
CHALLENGING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION. ALTHOUGH
THE NHC FORECAST WILL SHOW ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF
RE-INTENSIFICATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IF IRENE AVOIDS SIGNIFICANT LAND
INTERACTION.
BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR MANY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO.
NOTE...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY TAKES THE PLACE OF THE STANDARD 800 PM
AST/0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL
BE THE FULL ADVISORY PACKAGE ISSUED AT 1100 PM AST/0300 UTC.
Tropical Storm Irene Open Thread
Use this post to leave comments and questions about Irene.
Tropical Storm Irene 5 day track
Possibly Irene
What possibly could be Tropical Storm Irene is brewing up and is very close to the Caribbean - this should be watched:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROATAN
HONDURAS.
1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS
TIME. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
2. A LARGE AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE LOW IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
Here is the early model tracks of the storm, but this does not discuss what intensity it might reach:
Tropical Storm Harvey
Tropical Storm Harvey is headed towards Belize and as such we really don't cover it here as it is a Central America storm and our focus in on the Caribbean. You can get more infer on Harvey from the NHC.
August 18, 2011
Possible storm brewing in the western Caribbean
If this does turn into a storm the early models have it tracking west, so it shouldn't be a threat to the Caribbean islands:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THIS REGION
ALSO INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE FALLING. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...BELIZE...AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE WAVE THIS
AFTERNOON.
2. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 14, 2011
Tropical Storm Gert 5 Day Track
Tropical Storm Gert
Tropical Storm Gert is headed towards Bermuda:
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
500 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011
DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM GERT AND SMALL BANDING FEATURES HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP
IN THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE THIS
AFTERNOON FOUND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 43 KT IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ALONG WITH UNCONTAMINATED SFMR WINDS OF 39 AND
41 KT. THE SFMR WINDS CORRELATE WELL WITH AN EARLIER 1324Z ASCAT
PASS THAT INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 40 KT IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA OF THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE RECENT SFMR WINDS AND
EARLIER ASCAT WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.
NOW THAT GERT HAS REDEVELOPED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
HAS BECOME A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL STORM HAS
STARTED MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 335/07...TOWARD A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING EASTWARD OVER AND NORTH OF
BERMUDA WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ITS WAKE...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD BACK WESTWARD AND CREATE
SOME STAIR-STEP MOTIONS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOVING
STEADILY EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY ERODING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 32N LATITUDE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS
A RESULT... THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND
STEER GERT NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN
ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS AND LIES CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY
PACKED GLOBAL MODEL SUITE.
GERT HAS MOVED INTO A WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH HAS ALLOWED DEEP CONVECTION TO
PERSIST AND PRODUCE A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE STORM.
THIS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...ALONG WITH WARM SSTS ABOVE
28C...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OT SO. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING. AFTER
THAT...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING EVEN
THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LOW. BY 48
HOURS...GERT WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 30 KT.
THIS COMBINATION OF UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
CAUSE GERT TO MAKE THE TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.
August 11, 2011
Couple of potential storms in the works
We saw recently how unpredictable tropical storm and hurricane forecasting can be with Emily - she never really got up to speed and the track changed enormously during the life of the storm. That being said, there are a couple of systems in the Atlantic now that the computer models are crunching away, and they have the potential to impact the Caribbean region in the days ahead. Again, I always write here about how if you are traveling to to the region you need to have purchased trip insurance before a storm is named, so if you are headed to the Caribbean in the next week or so, you should think about that NOW if you have not already!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE
LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
3. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
And this is the ensemble model (all the models put together) for number two in the above image:
August 3, 2011
Tropical Storm Emily on Path Toward Haiti
August 2, 2011
Satellite image of Tropical Storm Emily
You can see the individual storm tops in this photo - and - this is a huge storm. If it was better organized it looks to be potentially disastrous.
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
Tropical Storm Emily is now in the Caribbean basin and heading towards Hispaniola. While it is not well organized it is still bringing a lot of rain to the region. The track may also change drastically, so anyone in the region that is even close to the tracking area should be paying attention:
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EMILY INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS ONLY SLIGHT
EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES...AND SINCE THE CENTER LOCATION IS
QUITE UNCERTAIN IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR THE CENTER IS
EMBEDDED INTO THE DENSE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. CONSEQUENTLY...
OBTAINING A RELIABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATE VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE IS
PROBLEMATIC. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY AROUND 1200 UTC AND SHOULD GIVE A
BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE. RADIOSONDE DATA
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN STATIONS SHOW SOME UNFAVORABLE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 300 MB JUST BELOW THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW LEVEL. MOREOVER...AS NOTED EARLIER...SOME DRY AIR IS
PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF EMILY. IN A FEW
DAYS...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THESE LARGE-SCALE FACTORS...THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN EMILY TO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING INTERRUPTED BY THE
INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA...BUT NO LONGER BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO
HURRICANE INTENSITY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR MOST RELIABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL LGEM.
SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
RATHER UNCERTAIN 280/14. THE STORM SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR A DAY OR SO. AS A TROUGH
JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WEAKENS THE RIDGE...A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST...WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF A
DEEPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A MUCH MORE WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE
SHALLOW VORTEX OR TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MAINLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THE GFS AND ECMWF. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EMILY WILL BE AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BE IN
3 TO 5 DAYS.
Tropical Storm Emily Wind Chart
Tropical Storm Emily Open Thread
Use this post to ask questions and leave comments about Emily -
