Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



Hurricane Leslie

Leslie headed for Newfoundland

Published on September 10, 2012 7:40 AM | Comments

Downgraded Tropical Storm Leslie is clear of Bermuda and headed off towards Newfoundland. Bermuda dodged one:

Tropical Storm Leslie's outer bands buffeted Bermuda with gusty winds and rain, swirling to the east of the British enclave Sunday and then heading on a path expected to take it to Canada's Newfoundland later in the week.

The government reopened the L.F. Wade International Airport in the early evening after keeping it closed for most of the day due to tropical storm winds. Major airlines already had canceled flights to the British Atlantic territory of about 65,000 inhabitants.
As Leslie moved away from Bermuda into the northern Atlantic, the Bermuda Police Service said there were no reports of any major damage or injuries. Bus services resumed.

But scattered power outages affected hundreds of customers during the day, and some roads were littered with tree branches and other debris. At least one street pole fell in central Hamilton.

Government officials were breathing a sigh of relief since Leslie had several days earlier been forecast to be a Category 2 hurricane as it passed Bermuda, possibly as a direct strike.

"Despite a few power outages and cancelled flights it will be business as usual tomorrow. I would ask the public to remain cautious as there may be loose tree limbs and debris, and the ocean is still dangerous for swimming," said National Security Minister Wayne Perinchief.

Schools will not hold classes Monday, and sea ferry services were suspended while the fleet and docks are inspected.

There is a newer system out in the Atlantic but I can not find a tracking chart yet - however the NHC does think this storm has some potential:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS DISTURBANCE IS
LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.



HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27

Published on September 6, 2012 12:22 AM | Comments

HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

RECENT TRMM AND SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LESLIE HAS NOT
FORMED A CLOSED EYEWALL...AND IN FACT...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION
HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED. THERE IS STILL SOME INDICATION OF
WESTERLY SHEAR AS WELL...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING HELD AT 65 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.7/4.3.

BASED ON RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE FIXES...THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE
010/2 KT. LESLIE SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW NORTHWARD CREEP FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE IT REMAINS TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE HURRICANE
SHOULD GAIN SOME NORTHWARD MOMENTUM BY DAY 3 ONCE A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS MODEL HAS
SHIFTED BACK TO THE EAST ON THIS CYCLE AND IS THE EASTERNMOST AND
SLOWEST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. SINCE THIS
HAS NOT YET TURNED INTO A CONSISTENT TREND...THE NHC FORECAST IS
BEING KEPT CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.

LESLIE IS PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO DRY AIR LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A CROSS SECTION BASED ON GFS MODEL DATA SHOWS AIR WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT ABUTTING AGAINST THE
CIRCULATION IN THE 250-500 MB LAYER. SINCE MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT LESLIE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE DRY
AIR COULD CONTINUE TO SEEP INTO THE CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THAT THE SEA SURFACE BENEATH LESLIE IS
COOLING DUE TO UPWELLING...AND THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE AS LONG
AS THE HURRICANE MOVES SO SLOWLY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND INDICATES GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.

LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE CYCLONE...
COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP TO GENERATE
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 26.2N 62.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 26.4N 62.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 26.8N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 27.1N 63.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 27.7N 63.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 30.5N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 35.5N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 44.0N 59.5W 75 KT 85 MPH



Tropical Storm Leslie

Published on August 30, 2012 5:19 PM | Comments

The remains of Isaac are over Louisiana, Hurricane Kirk is out in the Atlantic and spinning away back towards Europe, and Tropical Storm Leslie has now formed east of the Caribbean. Thankfully this storm is already forecast to miss the islands and head into the open Atlantic (although it may pose a problem for Bermuda down the road) - let's hope it stays that way:

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

LESLIE HAS QUICKLY ORGANIZED TODAY WITH PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES
AND INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET TO 40 KT AS A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND MICROWAVE ESTIMATES.
GLOBAL MODELS ALL BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE STORM
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO BE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LESLIE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO...AND
THERE ARE EVEN A COUPLE MODELS THAT SHOW IT NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE BELOW THE ROBUST LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WHILE THE TIMING IS IMPOSSIBLE TO
PINPOINT...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF LESLIE BECAME STRONGER
THAN FORECAST IN THE THREE-TO-FIVE DAY PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/18. LESLIE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS
EXPECTED TO DIG BETWEEN 60W-70W...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO
MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN A FEW DAYS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST THREE
DAYS...THEN SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS ON WHICH TROUGH MIGHT RECURVE
THE CYCLONE. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...SPEED DIFFERENCES BECOME
VERY IMPORTANT ON WHETHER LESLIE MOVES QUICKLY OUT TO SEA...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...OR GETS STUCK UNDER A RIDGE...AS FORECAST BY
THE ECMWF. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...STILL A BIT FASTER AND WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING RATHER LARGE...SO THE WIND
RADII FORECAST HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 14.4N 45.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 15.3N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 16.5N 50.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 17.7N 53.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 19.0N 56.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 22.0N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 26.0N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 28.5N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH