Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



Hurricane Sandy

Pt. Pleasant NJ, Monday morning

Published on October 29, 2012 10:46 AM | Comments



Hurricane Sandy Update

Published on October 29, 2012 9:37 AM | Comments

Sandy is obviously not a Caribbean storm but since I am based in NJ we are following it over on my forum at Virgin Islands On Line: Hurricane Sandy Official Thread



Hurricane Sandy leaves trail of destruction in Cuba

Published on October 25, 2012 5:11 PM | Comments

From Reuters:

(Reuters) - Hurricane Sandy hit Cuba with a surprising jolt on Thursday, slamming the island with winds that reached 110 miles per hour and leaving a trail of destruction, especially in the historic city of Santiago de Cuba.

Cuban television showed fallen trees, damaged buildings and debris-choked streets in the country's second largest city, which took a direct hit when the storm came ashore in the early morning hours.

"Everything is destroyed in Santiago. People are going to have to work very hard to recover," Alexis Manduley, a resident of the city, told Reuters by telephone.

I don't know how a well forecast and rather slow moving storm can hit with a "surprising jolt", but in any case the news from Cuba seems pretty bad unfortunately.



TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

Published on October 23, 2012 5:28 AM | Comments

Sandy now is named, and the forecast has intensified to at least hurricane status - tracking right over Jamaica, Cuba, and eventually the Bahamas in about 5 days. This storm needs to be watched if you are in the forecast track - it could mean a lot of rain and flooding.

TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4... CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

BANDS OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO
BE VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE DURING
THE PAST 12-18 HOURS...AS AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT
SANDY STILL HAS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE T2.5...AND THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO THE CYCLONE AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF THE STORM.

SANDY APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FASTER NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION BEGINNING TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY
WEAKENS. THE CENTER OF SANDY SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER
JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH EASTERN CUBA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 96 HOURS WITH
A TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE HWRF ALONG THE
EASTERN SIDE. THE GFS IS CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND THE NHC FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND THE FLORIDA STATE ENSEMBLE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF LOW SHEAR...WARM WATERS...
AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...FAVOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS BRING
SANDY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS AND SO DOES
THE NHC FORECAST. AFTER SANDY CROSSES EASTERN CUBA...THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...HOWEVER THE
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A DEEPENING CYCLONE...POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME
BAROCLINIC FORCING. THE NHC FORECAST STILL INDICATES THE SYSTEM
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL LATE IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT SANDY COULD BE TRANSITIONING
TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND THAT TIME.



Tropical Depression 18

Published on October 22, 2012 4:15 PM | Comments

Tropical Depression 18 is out there in the southern Caribbean Sea, and forecast to move north/northeast dead over Jamaica - albeit slowly. So it should mean that even with low Tropical Storm winds, there will be a lot of rain. Keep an eye on it:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE EXACT CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT THE
SYSTEM HAS CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
INCREASED MARKEDLY SINCE OVERNIGHT. REFINEMENTS TO THE POSITION
COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY ONCE THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE INVESTIGATES THE SYSTEM.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 230/4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD
CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AFTER 24 HOURS...A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CUBA
SHOULD PULL THE DEPRESSION NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND
EASTERN CUBA. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW VARYING SCENARIOS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...THEY ALL AGREE ON A PERSISTENT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IN
FACT...THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN
BY AT LEAST 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BASED ON THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
FAIRLY QUICK STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BE ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA. AFTER 48 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...AND NEARLY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TAKE ON MORE HYBRID
CHARACTERISTICS...SUCH AS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH AND
ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL STORM
BY DAY 5.