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June 2012 | Main | September 2012

Tropical Storm Leslie

Published on August 30, 2012 5:19 PM | Comments

The remains of Isaac are over Louisiana, Hurricane Kirk is out in the Atlantic and spinning away back towards Europe, and Tropical Storm Leslie has now formed east of the Caribbean. Thankfully this storm is already forecast to miss the islands and head into the open Atlantic (although it may pose a problem for Bermuda down the road) - let's hope it stays that way:

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

LESLIE HAS QUICKLY ORGANIZED TODAY WITH PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES
AND INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET TO 40 KT AS A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND MICROWAVE ESTIMATES.
GLOBAL MODELS ALL BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE STORM
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO BE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LESLIE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO...AND
THERE ARE EVEN A COUPLE MODELS THAT SHOW IT NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE BELOW THE ROBUST LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WHILE THE TIMING IS IMPOSSIBLE TO
PINPOINT...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF LESLIE BECAME STRONGER
THAN FORECAST IN THE THREE-TO-FIVE DAY PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/18. LESLIE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS
EXPECTED TO DIG BETWEEN 60W-70W...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO
MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN A FEW DAYS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST THREE
DAYS...THEN SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS ON WHICH TROUGH MIGHT RECURVE
THE CYCLONE. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...SPEED DIFFERENCES BECOME
VERY IMPORTANT ON WHETHER LESLIE MOVES QUICKLY OUT TO SEA...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...OR GETS STUCK UNDER A RIDGE...AS FORECAST BY
THE ECMWF. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...STILL A BIT FASTER AND WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING RATHER LARGE...SO THE WIND
RADII FORECAST HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 14.4N 45.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 15.3N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 16.5N 50.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 17.7N 53.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 19.0N 56.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 22.0N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 26.0N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 28.5N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH




Tropical Storm Isaac Update

Published on August 26, 2012 8:20 AM | Comments

This morning Isaac is off the coast of Cuba and forecast to make landfall late in the week somewhere near the end of the Florida panhandle:

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

WHILE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ISAAC REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. PEAK 850-MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 69 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ADJUST TO AN
INTENSITY OF 55 KT...WHICH IS THE VALUE FOR THIS ADVISORY. AIRCRAFT
DATA INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS ALSO DROPPED A LITTLE...
TO 995 MB. ISAAC STILL APPEARS TO BE BATTLING THE EFFECTS OF SOME
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...
AS SEEN IN UPPER-AIR DATA FROM MIAMI AND KEY WEST. ASIDE FROM
THIS...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE
VERY WARM...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS
TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SHOWS A LITTLE SLOWER RATE OF
STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...TRENDING TOWARD THE
LATEST CYCLE OF GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/16...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.
AS THE UPPER-LOW TO THE WEST OF ISAAC RETREATS WESTWARD AND THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LIFTS NORTHWARD...ISAAC
WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. MOST OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...NO
LONGER SHOW ISAAC RECURVING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ONE CAMP OF GUIDANCE...
INCLUDING THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS THE SHORTWAVE
BYPASSES ISAAC COMPLETELY. THE ECMWF AND GFDL SHOW HAVE MORE OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND SHOW ISAAC TURNING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
EASTERN GULF COAST. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT IS ALONG THE PREVIOUS
TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE TVCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF...SHOWING A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AND NORTHWARD TURN AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE
LOW...AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN ISAAC
WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE
CENTER.

GIVEN THE NEW NHC FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.




TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

Published on August 25, 2012 8:55 AM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

THE CIRCULATION OF ISAAC HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY INTACT AFTER MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THE
CENTER MOVED INLAND...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTED THAT
THE CYCLONE HAD PEAK WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT. ASSUMING THE CYCLONE
WEAKENED A LITTLE AFTER ENCOUNTERING THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12. AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ISAAC WILL MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO...AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NHC FORECAST THIS
CYCLE...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE GFS AND THE TVCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5 THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER ISAAC WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND THE GFDL OR
BE LEFT BEHIND AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND HWRF. THE NHC DAY 5 POINT
IS BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS SHOWING A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION.

GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE HAS FARED RATHER WELL AFTER MOVING ACROSS
HAITI...AND THAT THE TRACK FORECAST HAS ONLY MINIMAL INTERACTION
WITH CUBA...THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ISAAC
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WITH
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS THROUGH
72 HOURS AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM AFTERWARD.

THE NEW NHC FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF FLORIDA AT THIS TIME.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ISAAC DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE
AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.




Isaac Gains Strength

Published on August 25, 2012 8:49 AM | Comments



VI Port Authority Provides Flight Information and Port Status Updates

Published on August 23, 2012 1:06 PM | Comments

The Virgin Islands Port Authority's Interim Executive Director, Don Mills Esq., issued the following update on the status of flights and the VIPA's air and seaports as Tropical Storm Isaac passes the U.S. Virgin Islands:

American Airlines
-Canceled today's midday flight from St. Croix to Miami.
-Operating its Miami, Florida to St. Thomas flight AA505/AA672, arriving at 1:35pm and departing at 3:00pm.
-Operating its Miami, Florida to St. Thomas flight AA1819, arriving at 8:00pm. This is the scheduled daily over-nighter.

American Eagle:
-Operating its San Juan to St. Thomas flight AA4874/AA4833, arriving at 6:00pm and departing at 6:30pm.
-Thus far, American Eagle has not canceled its San Juan, Puerto Rico to St. Croix flight scheduled to arrive at 6:30 p.m today.

LIAT, Ltd.:
-Resuming operations at CEKA with its midday flight, LI553, scheduled arrival at 12:45pm, scheduled departure at 1:30pm.
-VIPA has not yet received a report on when this airline will resume operations at HERA

Jet Blue
-Operating as normal with no cancellations

Delta
-Operating its flight from Atlanta, Georgia to St. Thomas with scheduled arrival at 2:08pm, scheduled departure at 2:58pm.

Cape Air
- All flights remain cancelled until further notice

Seaborne Airlines
-All flights remain cancelled from the seaports and airports until Friday, Aug. 24th

Spirit
-No scheduled flights today

United and US Airways
-No scheduled flights through Saturday, Aug. 25th

Both the Cyril E. King Airport on St. Thomas and the Henry E. Rohlsen Airport are open, but all seaports throughout the territory remain closed until further notice from the U.S. Coast Guard.




Latest watches and warnings for Tropical Storm Isaac

Published on August 23, 2012 12:13 PM | Comments

Next advisory at 2 PM EST:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 23 2012

...ISAAC CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 65.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND HAITI.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42060 RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN
WINDS OF 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH...76 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SUBSIDING OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY FRIDAY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY LATE
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.




Tropical Storm Joyce

Published on August 23, 2012 12:08 PM | Comments

Tropical Storm Joyce is now out there behind Isaac. As this looks to be a non-Caribbean event we probably will not be covering it too closely, but there is still a chance it could impact Bermuda and we will keep an eye on it:

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER
5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
AL102012 1100 AM AST THU AUG 23 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. ANIMATION OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A FAIRLY CIRCULAR MASS OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO A CONSENSUS 2.5...AND THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A STEADY 295/14. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW JOYCE CONTINUING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN 3-4 DAYS...JOYCE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD ERODE THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ALLOWING JOYCE TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT DIFFERENCES ARISE AS A RESULT OF THE FORECAST DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RELY ON A BLEND OF THE ECWMF AND GFS SOLUTIONS...WHICH FAVOR A STRONGER REPRESENTATION OF JOYCE THAN THE GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE BEEN FORECASTING A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CHALLENGING. THE PROXIMITY OF JOYCE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH TO THE WEST IS IMPARTING SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITHIN THE TROUGH IS ALSO WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO GET CLOSER TO THE TROUGH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LITTLE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A DECREASE IN SHEAR OVER JOYCE IF IT IS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OF ISAAC. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE LGEM/SHIPS OUTPUT...SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION LATER ON.

THIS TIES THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE TENTH NAMED TROPICAL STORM OF A SEASON. IN 2005...TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORMED ON 22 AUGUST AND IN 1995 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORMED ON THIS DATE.




Tropical Storm Isaac Satellite image August 22, 2012

Published on August 23, 2012 11:44 AM | Comments

Here is a great picture of Isaac as a tropical storm before crossing in the Caribbean basin:

20120822ISAAC.jpg



Caribbean Sea Surface Temperature

Published on August 23, 2012 11:40 AM | Comments

Caribbean Sea Surface Temperature map from the NOAA.




UPDATE: US Coast Guard to Close Sea Ports in the US Virgin Islands at 8 PM Tonight; Ferry Operators Adjust Schedules

Published on August 22, 2012 5:16 PM | Comments

Alert / Warning
Transportation - Waterway Disruption or Delay

...This is an ACTUAL WATERWAY DISRUPTION OR DELAY ALERT...

Issued By: VITEMA
Affected Jurisdictions: St. Croix, St. John, St. Thomas, Water Island
Counties

Headline: UPDATE: US Coast Guard to Close Sea Ports in the US Virgin
Islands at 8 PM Tonight; Ferry Operators Adjust Schedules

The US Coast Guard will implement Port Condition ZULU at 8 PM tonight for
the all sea ports in the US VIrgin Islands, officially suspending operations
and closing ports to incoming and outgoing vessel traffic until otherwise
directed by the Captain of the Port.

As a result of the port closure, ferry operators have adjusted schedules:

Departing:

A) Cruz Bay, St. John, hourly with final service at 7 PM

B) Red Hook, St. Thomas hourly until 7 PM with final service at 7:30 PM

C) Charlotte Amalie, St. Thomas: No change in schedule

All intra-island ferries in the U.S. Virgin Islands must cease operations
and be secured at their designated mooring facility when Port Condition ZULU
is in place for their respective port.

Mariners, owners and operators of recreational vessels should follow small
craft advisories from the National Weather Service and take the necessary
measures to safeguard the safety of their vessels, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
("http://www.nhc.noaa.gov") .

Pleasure craft operators are advised to seek safe harbor. Owners of larger
boats are urged to move their boats to inland marinas where they will be
less vulnerable to breaking free of their moorings or sustaining damage.
Trailerable boats should be pulled from the water and stored in a place
that is not prone to flooding.

Those who are leaving their boats in the water are reminded to secure life
rings, lifejackets and small boats. These items, if not secured properly,
can break free and require valuable search and rescue resources to be
diverted from a real emergency.




CENTER OF ISAAC ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

Published on August 22, 2012 2:15 PM | Comments

BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
AL092012 200 PM AST WED AUG 22 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 60.2W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF DOMINICA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * DOMINICA * GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN * ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HAITI AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PASS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY...AND APPROACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.




Tropical Storm Isaac

Published on August 21, 2012 5:15 PM | Comments

Issac is not a tropical storm and forecast to become a hurricane. The Windward and Leeward islands have tropical storm warnings and watches up already. People in those areas should be making rapid preparations for this storm.

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 500 PM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION REPORTED 44-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 1000 FT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AS WELL AS BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS ESTIMATES OF 35 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ISAAC. DESPITE THE UPGRADE...THE CYCLONE REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS NUDGED NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS 275/15. ISAAC REMAINS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT FOR THE NEXT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE GUIDANCE HAS BECOME LESS CONSISTENT SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WHILE THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE...THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE LEFT OF ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NOW CALLS FOR A WESTWARD MOTION AFTER ISAAC PASSES HISPANIOLA. THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD...ALTHOUGH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN STILL LIES NEAR THE FORECAST TRACK. THE NEW TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BEFORE 72 HR...AND THEN IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT THEREAFTER. THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER 72 HR LIES NEAR THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. USERS ARE CAUTIONED THAT FIVE-DAY TRACK ERRORS AVERAGE ABOUT 225 N MI.

ISAAC CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND IT MAY NOT YET HAVE FULLY MIXED OUT THE DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING IT. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN 12-24 HR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING. THAT BEING SAID...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THEIR FORECASTS OF INTENSIFICATION...AND THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE ALSO LESS BULLISH. BASED ON THIS...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE LESS STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR HAS AGAIN BEEN REDUCED DUE TO THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWING INCREASED LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.




Caribbean Water Vapor

Published on August 21, 2012 11:11 AM | Comments



Caribbean Surface Winds

Published on August 21, 2012 11:06 AM | Comments



Tropical Depression 9 5 Day Track

Published on August 21, 2012 10:54 AM | Comments




TD 9 forms in the Atlantic, another system close behind

Published on August 21, 2012 10:42 AM | Comments

The NHC is reporting on two potential Caribbean threatening systems, TD 9 and another system behind it:

two_atl8.21.12.gif

Theses systems need to be watched. Currently TD 9 looks like it may track into the Caribbean basin and then along the southern coast of Hispaniola as a hurricane.

From the NHC:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE LOCATED ABOUT 645 MILES EAST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.

1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

2. DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND LATE TODAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.




Tropical Weather Outlook August 19, 2012

Published on August 19, 2012 3:16 PM | Comments

According to the NHC this system out in the Atlantic bears watching:

two_atl.8.19.12.gif

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 220
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
20 TO 25 MPH.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.




TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

Published on August 10, 2012 2:32 PM | Comments

The depression is weak:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 10 2012

THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE STILL 1.5 FROM TAFB
AND SAB. WITHOUT ANY ADDITIONAL DATA AVAILABLE TO US AT THIS
TIME...WE ARE KEEPING THE CYCLONE AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME MORE APPARENT IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY...AND THE UPDATED POSITION YIELDS A FASTER 12-HR MOTION OF
270/20 KT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEERING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN
OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYS 4 AND
5...BUT SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...NOT MUCH
GAIN IN LATITUDE IS EXPECTED. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION AND
CONTINUES TO LIE CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A DIFFICULT ONE. THE
ONLY ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETER THAT APPEARS IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING
IS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE DEPRESSION
IS LIKELY BEING AFFECTED BY SURROUNDING DRY AIR...WHICH COULD BE
COMPOUNDED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FAST MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION WOULD
NORMALLY FAVOR LESS STRENGTHENING AS WELL. PROBABLY DUE TO THESE
FACTORS...THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEGENERATE
THE CYCLONE INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AS
PLAUSIBLE AS THAT SCENARIO IS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL KEEPS
THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE 5-DAY PERIOD BUT AT A
SLIGHTLY LOWER INTENSITY.

GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AND THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME AN OPEN WAVE EARLIER
THAN INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ARE NOT BEING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
AT THIS TIME.




Tropical Depression Seven may be an issue for the Caribbean

Published on August 9, 2012 5:30 PM | Comments

This system, while not forecast at the moment to become a hurricane, looks to be tracking near the same line as Ernesto did, and could go through the Windward Islands as a tropical storm. It bears watching for residents of those islands, as well Jamaica and the Caymans in the days to come.

td-seven-2012.gif

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
500 PM AST THU AUG 09 2012

LOW CLOUD MOTIONS FROM ANIMATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANYING A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THERE IS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO
WARRANT THE DESIGNATION OF THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS
TIME. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KT PENDING OBSERVATIONS
FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 41041...WHICH THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS NEAR OR
OVER A FEW HOURS FROM NOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
AN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...AS THE LGEM GUIDANCE INDICATES SHEAR IN THE 15 TO 20
KT RANGE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOREOVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD OPEN UP INTO A WAVE IN A FEW
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING...AND MORE OR LESS FOLLOWS THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.

A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION
AND THE CYCLONE IS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 17 KT. AN
EVEN FASTER FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS INDICATED
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS SUGGEST A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE LATTER PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE FORECAST BY THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME.




Tropical Storm Florence

Published on August 5, 2012 12:33 PM | Comments

Tropical Storm Florence is a weak system and expected to be downgraded to a tropical depression again as it nears the Leeward Islands later in the week. We are watching it, but probably won't report more unless it threatens the islands directly.

tropical-storm-florence.gif



Topical Storm Ernesto Update

Published on August 5, 2012 12:24 PM | Comments

Ernesto is poorly organized and moving quickly through the southern Caribbean - it is currently south of Jamaica. There really doesn't seem to be much threat to Caribbean islands, but the storm in some form will have an effect on Central America:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA TODAY AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.




TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

Published on August 3, 2012 11:31 PM | Comments

Jamaica needs to be on the look out, but for now this storm seems to be tracking mostly over the open waters of the Caribbean basin:

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND AN ABBREVIATED HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SUGGEST THAT
THIS HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB IS
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA. ANALYSIS FROM
CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER ERNESTO...AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO
SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT
36-48 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD TRACK
DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES
LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A DEVELOPING MID/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM 72-120 HR...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THE GFDL...
UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS RESPOND TO THIS BY FORECASTING ERNESTO TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST ERNESTO
TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...AND THUS SHOW THE
CYCLONE MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OR
CENTRAL AMERICA. BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT ERNESTO WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND STRONG ENOUGH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...THE
LATTER PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DIVERGENT. THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...WITH THE
LGEM CALLING FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 96 HR. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS OFFER A DISSENTING VIEW...WITH THE GFDL AND
HWRF PREDICTING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL ABOUT 96 HR. IN
ADDITION...THE ECMWF FORECASTS ERNESTO TO REMAIN VERY WEAK. IT IS
UNCLEAR WHAT ARE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
SEEING...SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AFTER 24 HR AND
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER THAT...IT IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE DIVERGENT GUIDANCE.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AS A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND ON
SATURDAY.




Tropical Depression SIX forms off the coast of Africa

Published on August 3, 2012 11:24 PM | Comments

This system looked impressive coming off the African coast, but the models don't seem to think it will turn into anything big - at this point:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EMERGED FROM WEST AFRICA YESTERDAY QUICKLY
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP
CONVECTION TODAY. THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
CENTER DUE TO THE IMPINGING EFFECTS OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 2.0
FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB...AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS
PERSISTED AND IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE THAT TIME. THUS ADVISORIES
ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. IT APPEARS THAT THE
GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE WAS AIDED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING
CONVECTIVELY-COUPLED KELVIN WAVE AS DEPICTED BY ANALYSES FROM
SUNY-ALBANY.

MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT...AS THE
SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. FINDING THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
SUBSTANTIALLY AIDED BY SOME SSMI AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM
NRL. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. AFTER ABOUT TWO
DAYS...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE WEAKENING AND
THUS ADVECTED ALONG WESTWARD BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS. THE
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE TCVA CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS.

WHILE THE CYCLONE UNDERWENT GENESIS RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...IT MAY BE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER. CURRENTLY THE
CYCLONE IS BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.
WHILE THIS SHOULD DIMINISH IN ABOUT A DAY...THE COMBINATION OF ONLY
LUKEWARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A FAIRLY DRY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO PEAK ONLY AS A LOW-END TROPICAL
STORM. AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAKENING AND
IT MAY NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FOUR OR FIVE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL LGEM AND SHIPS
MODELS AND THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WITH A BIT MORE
EMPHASIS ON THE LATTER.




Tropical Storm Ernesto

Published on August 3, 2012 12:43 PM | Comments

Oh my - my apologies on being late to Tropical Storm Ernesto. This storm is inside the Caribbean basin and at the moment tracking to the Yucatan peninsula. Of course this could change at any time - so we will be keeping a close on it in the coming days:

trop-storm-ernesto-track-small-8.3.12.gif

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012


DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND RADAR FROM MARTINIQUE SHOWED
THE SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVED WESTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF OR OVER ST. LUCIA EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE
AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE
CENTER. FAST-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONES TYPICALLY DO NOT STRENGTHEN
MUCH AND IN FACT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BY THE TIME ERNESTO
REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN. THE COMBINATION OF LOW
SHEAR AND HIGH UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT
BOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS ARE FORECASTING A STRONGER
HURRICANE.

MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO
WILL BE RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...TRACK MODELS DIVERGE
CONSIDERABLY AND SOME MODELS KEEP ERNESTO ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK...WHILE ANOTHER GROUP TURN THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST...DEPENDING UPON HOW THE MODELS DEPICT THE STRENGTH OF
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ERNESTO
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 TO 5
DAYS.











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