Meteorological - FLASH FLOOD WATCH
Issued By: NWS San Juan (San Juan, Puerto Rico) Affected Jurisdictions:
St. Croix, St. John, St. Thomas Counties
Headline: Flash Flood Watch issued August 27 at 11:03AM AST until August 28
at 12:00PM AST by NWS San Juan
...Tropical Storm Erika Will Bring Flooding Rains Across Portionsof The
Local Islands Tonight Through Friday Morning......Flash Flood Watch In
Effect Through Friday Morning...The National Weather Service In San Juan Has
Issued A* Flash Flood Watch For Puerto Rico And U.S. Virgin Islands.*
Through Friday Morning* There Is A Potential For Flooding Rainfall Across
Puerto Ricoand The U.S. Virgin Islands As Tropical Storm Erika Moves
Acrossthe Eastern Caribbean. Rainfall Forecasts Over The Local Areaare
Expected To Be Between 4 And 8 Inches With Isolated Maximumsof 12 Inches
Possible. Due To Heavy Rains Across Portions Of Thewestern Interior Of
Puerto Rico Over The Past Few Weeks...Theirsoils Are Super
Saturated...Therefore Significant Flooding Mayoccur In That Region.
Regardless Of The Antecedent Soilconditions...Localized Flash Flooding And
Land Slides Arepossible In Areas Of High Intensity Tropical
Downpours...Which can Occur With Tropical Storm Erika.
A Flash Flood Watch Means That Conditions May Develop That Leadto Flash
Flooding. Flash Flooding Is A Very Dangerous Situation.You Should Monitor
Later Forecasts And Be Prepared To Take Actionshould Flash Flood Warnings Be
Virgin Islands Port Authority Executive Director Carlton Dowe provided the public with an update regarding the US Virgin Islands' airports and seaports as the agency prepares for the arrival of Tropical Storm Erika which is expected to affect the territory tomorrow.
There are no plans to close the Henry E. Rohlsen Airport on St. Croix or the Cyril E. King Airport on St. Thomas today, said Dowe. VIPA will make an assessment and determine if the airports will be open tomorrow, August 27. The Port Authority is in constant communication with the airlines and will report any flight cancellations it receives.
Reported Flight Cancellations
Aug. 27th - all flights
In the event of a storm, the US Coast Guard takes the lead in the closure and re-opening of the seaports, said Dowe. The US Coast Guard has determined that all seaports in the territory will be closed at 6 p.m. today to all inbound commercial vessels. Ferry service to Tortola, BVI will be provided by Native Son from the E. W. Blyden Marine Terminal at 2:30 p.m. and from the Urman Fredericks Marine Terminal in Red Hook at 3:30 p.m. Ferry and barge service between St. Thomas and St. John will continue through midnight today.
The seaports will be closed to all vessels on Thursday, August 27 at 6 a.m. No ferry or barge services will be allowed. The US Coast Guard will determine when the seaports can be re-opened once the storm has passed, Dowe said.
The public is reminded to call the airlines, ferry and barge services directly for accurate schedule information.
It doesn't look like Erika will achieve hurricane status as the storm approaches the Caribbean - although it still may days from now as it nears the Bahamas (if the current forecast holds).
From the NHC:
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
200 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015
...ERIKA CONTINUES WESTWARD...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS WAY TO INVESTIGATE
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Erika.
A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for a portion of the
Dominican Republic later today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 58.2 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours.
On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over
portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and be near or just north of
the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
primarily to the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions could reach portions of the Dominican Republic on
RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
Well Danny thankfully ran out of steam and produced much needed rain - but now Erika is following right behind. Erika looks to be gearing up a bit and need watching -
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
After becoming quite disorganized in appearance earlier today,
Erika has made a bit of a comeback with increased deep convection
near and to the south of the center. Data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt and
this is consistent with Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB.
Erika has limited upper-level outflow over the northern semicircle
of the circulation, and microwave data suggest that the cyclone has
been ingesting some dry mid-level air. As in the previous
forecast, there is considerable uncertainty as to the future
intensity of this tropical cyclone. The SHIPS guidance indicates
increasing west-northwesterly shear over the next few days, and the
GFS and ECMWF global models do not strengthen the system during the
forecast period. The HWRF and GFDL models do show strengthening,
however, but along a track to the right of most of the guidance.
The official intensity forecast has been reduced a bit from the
previous one and is close to the model consensus.
A center fix from the aircraft indicates that the motion continues
to be near 280/17. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of
Erika should steer the system on a west-northwestward track for the
next several days. Late in the forecast period, there is
significant spread in the models, with those models that depict a
weaker system being farther south and west and those having a
stronger cyclone farther to the north and east. The official track
forecast has been adjusted a little to the left of the previous one
and is in line with the latest dynamical model consensus.
Some of the tropical storm watches for the islands of the
northeastern Caribbean may need to be changed to warnings on the
next advisory package.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 15.6N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.1N 55.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 17.4N 61.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 18.2N 64.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 20.3N 69.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 22.5N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 25.0N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH