Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



Hurricane Nicole

Published on October 6, 2016 7:13 PM | Comments

Well Hurricane Nicole is going to go down as the Rodney Dangerfield of hurricanes. Pretty hard to pay attention to Nicole when Matthew is out there tearing up the Caribbean and possible about to inflict major damage on Florida and beyond.

But Nicole is a hurricane, and is expected to waver on and off between hurricane and tropical storm for some time as she meanders about south/southwest of Bermuda.

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016

Nicole's cloud pattern has continued to increase in organization
this afternoon. A small central dense overcast has become even more
symmetric during the last few hours, with an eye intermittently
visible. Dvorak classifications of T4.5 from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT
values support increasing the intensity to 75 kt.

Nicole is being affected by northerly shear associated with outflow
of Hurricane Matthew, but it is suspected that this shear is
confined to a narrow layer at upper levels since the cyclone has
been unexpectedly strengthening. Given the current trends,
additional intensification seems possible, at least during the short
term. However, a mid- to upper-level trough digging over the central
Atlantic should cause the shear over Nicole to greatly increase in 1
to 2 days and result in some weakening. There could also be some
interaction of Nicole with a piece of the trough that breaks off in
2 to 3 days, as shown in the global models, but it is unclear how
this could affect its intensity. The large-scale environment
is forecast to potentially become more conducive for re-
intensification by days 4 or 5, and some restrengthening is shown
around that time. The new intensity forecast is above the
multi-model consensus and higher than the previous one at the end
of the forecast period.

The initial motion estimate is 330/06. Steering currents are likely
to collapse very soon as Nicole finds itself in a col area, making
an erratic northward motion likely for the next 12 hours or so. A
blocking ridge in the wake of the aforementioned trough should then
impart a slow southerly motion for a couple of days. By 72 hours, a
turn back toward the northwest or north-northwest is forecast as a
mid-level high builds to the east of Nicole. Although there is
considerable spread in the model guidance, this general scenario is
shown except for the ECMWF, which is well to the right of the other
model solutions through the next 3 days. The new track forecast is
of low confidence, is faster than the previous one, and is between
the previous forecast and an average of the ECMWF/GFS output.

Swells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting Bermuda,
and these conditions are likely to continue for the next several
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 27.5N 65.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 27.9N 65.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 27.6N 65.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 27.0N 64.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 26.5N 64.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 26.4N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 27.4N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 29.4N 67.7W 65 KT 75 MPH



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