Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



Tropical Storm Nicole

Published on October 4, 2016 6:02 PM | Comments

Well just to make matters worse Tropical Storm Nicole has kicked up. This is not a Caribbean threat, but the fact that it is out there flanking Matthew means he will probably end up taking a more destructive path closer to the U.S. coast line. Even the ECMWF has moved their track further west now - and it was the major model that had previously shown Matthew heading out to east further and faster than most.

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016

Nicole's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since earlier today.
All of the deep convection is occurring over the eastern semicircle
of the circulation as the storm continues to experience fairly
strong northwesterly shear. The advisory intensity is held at 45
kt based on continuity from the earlier scatterometer data. Nicole
is likely to continue to experience strong shear over the next
several days, which should eventually result in weakening. The
official intensity forecast is close to the latest LGEM guidance.

The tropical cyclone continues moving northwestward, or 305/8 kt.
Nicole should continue moving northwestward for the next couple of
days, to the southwest of a mid-level high. Later in the forecast
period, another high builds to the northwest of the cyclone and
this would block the forward progress of Nicole in 4-5 days. The
official track forecast leans toward the latest ECMWF prediction.
This is a little faster than the previous forecast for the next few
days, and a little east of it in the latter part of the forecast
period.




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