Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



Tropical Storm Earl forms in the western Caribbean

Published on August 2, 2016 10:21 PM | Comments

Tropical Storm Earl finally cropped up today in the western Caribbean Sea:

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

An Air Force reconnaissance plane investigated Earl a few hours
ago and measured flight-level winds of about 54 kt in the northeast
quadrant on its last leg. It also measured a minimal central
pressure of 1002 mb. Another Air Force plane will be in Earl
tonight along with the NOAA P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft. The
satellite presentation has not changed significantly during the day,
and Dvorak T-numbers, along with the plane data, yield an initial
intensity of 45 kt. Global models have consistently forecast a
little better environment, and the NHC forecast calls for some
strengthening. Earl could be near hurricane strength as it
approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Belize.

It appears that Earl has slowed down as anticipated, and is
now moving westward or 275 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is
embedded within the deep easterly flow on the south side of a ridge.
This flow pattern will continue to steer Earl on a general west to
west-northwest track with a gradual decrease in forward speed across
Belize and the Yucatan peninsula during the next 2 days or so. After
that time, Earl will likely move over the southern portion of the
Bay of Campeche where it could re-intensify some. There is good
confidence with this track scenario, and the NHC forecast very
closely follows the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 16.4N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 16.5N 83.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 17.0N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 17.5N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 18.0N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1800Z 19.0N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/1800Z 20.0N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

This storm doesn't look like it will have much more effect on the Caribbean islands we cover here, so we probably won't be doing much more reporting on it.


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