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Hurricane Jose

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 19

Published on September 9, 2017 11:10 PM | Comments

Jose went far enough north to spare Barbuda a direct hit thankfully. This storm is going to meander around the Atlantic for awhile however -

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017

Jose continues to have an impressive satellite signature, with a
nearly clear 15 to 20 n mi wide eye surrounded by a ring of deep
convection. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane just finished a
mission through Jose, with maximum flight-level winds of 122 kt and
maximum SFMR winds of 109 kt. Based on this data, the initial
intensity for this advisory is estimated to be 115 kt.

The initial motion remains a steady 310/12 kt, with Jose's motion
through the first 36 hours being driven by a deep-layer ridge
located to the north of the cyclone. As the ridge shifts to the
east of the system on day 2, a turn toward the north is expected,
with a decrease in the forward motion. By day 3, the steering
currents are expected to become quite weak, with Jose moving
north of the mid-level ridge, while a deep-layer low passes well to
the northeast. This will induce a short-lived motion to the east,
but as the ridge rebuilds west and then north of Jose, a gradual
westward turn of the cyclone is expected. The 5-day forecast
depicts Jose completing a relatively small anticyclonic loop over
the open Atlantic. The updated forecast is close to the previous
one, and closely follows the consensus guidance and operational
ECMWF/GFS/UKMET.

The shear over Jose is currently analyzed to be near 10 kt, and thus
little change in short-term intensity is expected. Although water
temperatures will be sufficiently warm to support an intense
cyclone, moderate shear - of varying directions - is expected to
lead to gradual weakening over the next couple of days as Jose
meanders over the open Atlantic. The updated intensity forecast is
close to the previous prediction, but is stronger than the SHIPS
model, due to the IVCN/ECMWF models maintaining a more intense
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 19.8N 63.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 21.1N 65.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 22.8N 67.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 24.4N 68.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 25.5N 69.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 26.3N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 25.2N 67.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 24.5N 69.0W 90 KT 105 MPH



Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 15

Published on September 8, 2017 11:50 PM | Comments

Just too cruel to contemplate - news reports are saying Barbuda is "uninhabitable" and I think the whole island has been evacuated - Barbuda could take another direct hit from Jose. St Martin/Maarten, Anguilla and St. Barts are also in real danger.

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Jose this
evening and found that the hurricane is even a little stronger than
previously estimated. An average of the aircraft's flight level
winds, SFMR values, and dropsonde data support an intensity of 135
kt, making Jose very near category 5 strength. It is surprising
that Jose is as strong as the aircraft data suggests, since the
hurricane's satellite appearance has degraded a little during the
last several hours.

Jose is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected overnight and on Saturday, taking the
core of Jose just east of the northern Leeward Islands. The
hurricane is forecast to slow down and turn northward in 3 to 4 days
when it moves around the ridge and toward a large mid- to
upper-level low over the north Atlantic. The models then indicate
that the upper low will bypass Jose causing it to drift eastward or
meander at the end of the forecast period. The track forecast is
fairly close to the previous advisory and lies nearest to the
various consensus models.

Fluctuations in strength are likely overnight and on Saturday due to
the potential for eyewall replacement cycles, but Jose is expected
to remain at category 4 strength when it is closest to the northern
Leeward Islands. After that time, the models insist that a slow
weakening trend should occur through the remainder of the forecast
period due to an increase in wind shear and drier air. The NHC
intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance in the
short term, but then falls in line with the HCCA and ICON consensus
models from 48 to 120 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 16.9N 59.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 17.8N 60.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 19.1N 62.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 20.7N 64.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 22.4N 66.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 25.3N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 26.8N 68.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 27.7N 66.3W 80 KT 90 MPH



Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 6

Published on September 6, 2017 10:33 PM | Comments

Jose's forecast track has pushed a bit further south - this would be an especially cruel double blow to places like Barbuda and the French West Indies if it actually was to come along the same path as Irma. That isn't likely to happen at the moment, but it is not impossible either.

Reports from St. Martin are of near total destruction with the death toll expected to rise, and more severe weather would just make an awful situation that much worse.

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

Jose has continued to become better organized. Banding convection
has become very symmetric around the center, and the upper-level
outflow has become well established in all quadrants, despite the
presence of Hurricane Irma to the west. An eye-like dimple has
occasionally been observed in visible imagery during the afternoon.
The initial intensity is now 65 kt, based on the latest Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB. There is no reason to believe that
the recent intensification trend will end soon. In fact, the SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index gives a 48 percent chance of
intensification of 30 kt (or more) in the next 24 h. My forecast is
just shy of that, and is close to the intensification rate shown by
the HWRF for the next 36 h. After about 48-72 h, the vertical wind
shear is forecast to increase, and all of the models forecast
weakening. Overall, the NHC forecast is a little above the model
consensus for the first 72 h, but close to IVCN by the end of the
forecast.

A pair of late-arriving ASCAT passes and recent visible imagery
indicate that Jose is a little farther north than previously
estimated. The initial motion estimate is 285/14 kt. Due to the
northward shift of the initial position, the forecast has been
adjusted in that direction for the first 48 h. However, the
reasoning behind the forecast has not changed, and Jose should
continue on a fairly steady west-northwest track, steered primarily
by the subtropical ridge. After that time, a mid-level trough should
cause the ridge to retreat eastward, allowing Jose to gain more
latitude. The global models, especially the ECMWF, are suggesting
that this turn may occur a little later than previously expected,
and have shifted westward a little bit. The new NHC forecast at 96
and 120 h is very close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and
is about a degree west of the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 13.9N 45.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 14.5N 48.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 15.1N 51.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 15.8N 54.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 16.4N 56.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 18.5N 60.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 21.5N 63.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 25.0N 67.5W 70 KT 80 MPH



Tropical Storm Jose

Published on September 5, 2017 11:39 PM | Comments

Something to worry about after Irma - this storm hopefully stays out in the Atlantic!

Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...JOSE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 41.7W
ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the future progress
of Jose.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 41.7 West. Jose is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slightly faster
west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Jose is
expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.