October 29, 2008
Tropics relatively quiet
The tropics are relatively quiet as the end of October nears. Hurricane season runs until the end of November, but the odds for a major storm this time of year greatly decrease:
October 14, 2008
The tropics are active as the season winds down
Tropical Storm Nana has petered out, but Tropical Storm Omar formed this morning and looks highly likely to affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. We also have a new tropical depression to worry about, TD 16, which is currently forecast to hug the coast of Honduras and head westward towards the Belize/Guatemala border. Keep checking the home page of the Caribbean Hurricane Blog for more information.
October 13, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008
The end of the hurricane season is in sight - but that doesn't mean we are out of the woods yet for 2008. There are a couple of areas of concern out there in the moment - one already a storm and another with the potential to become one soon:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM NANA...LOCATED ABOUT 1015 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND A PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON NANA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON NANA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.
September 25, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2008
This system (#2) is still hanging around -
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE AND HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS OCCURS...STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR STATEMENTS FROM THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES...AND ALSO HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WARNINGS.
2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
September 24, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE LOW IS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WARNINGS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
September 23, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM.
September 22, 2008
High Potential for Tropical Cyclone formation today
Another system that might affect the western Caribbean:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NEAR WESTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM PUERTO RICO INDICATE THAT 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ON PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...AND THESE RAINS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE DOMINICAN REPBULIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.
September 12, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008
Ike is the main story at the moment, but this site focusses on Caribbean weather - at the moment the NHC is watching two areas, but neither look to be that significant a threat:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE IKE...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...INCLUDING SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE...IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Hurricane policies in place for worried travelers
From CNN - some tips from the article:
- Most airlines allow one ticket change without penalty for hurricane-affected fliers
- Airlines outline specific dates and parameters for fee-free changes
- Hotels in hurricane-prone areas usually have re-booking or refund policies in place
- Cruise ships often can be re-routed to avoid major storms
September 10, 2008
Hurricane Appeal, British Red Cross
For UK residents who want to help:
September 6, 2008
Tropical update, Saturday September 7, 2008
Ike is a major hurricane on the doorstep of the Turks & Caicos - this is a dangerous storm and will be making landfall eventually on Cuba and then perhaps Louisiana (hurts just to write this):
...IKE HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH WINDS...
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
Hanna is racing up the east coast as a tropical storm with 50 MPH winds -
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...ALL OF CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC... WASHINGTON D.C...DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK HARBOR...LONG ISLAND SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Josephine is just a remnant low now -
In the path of Hurricane Ike
Hanna-Ike-Josephine storm trio isn't an anomaly
From the LA Times:
"We're in peak season in an active hurricane cycle, and this is one of the results of that," said Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and public affairs officer with the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
"We've had incidents where four or five storms have been stacked up."
September 5, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE from Carnival Cruise Lines
We are closely monitoring the progress of Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike. All of Carnival's ships will continue to operate at a safe distance from these storms. Our number one priority is the safety of our guests and crew.
We have made itinerary changes for several departures in order to provide our guests with an enjoyable shore experience, while operating the ships in the safest and most comfortable conditions:
Carnival Miracle: 8/29 departure from New York: The ship will visit Port Canaveral (Mon), Freeport (Tue) and Newport, Rhode Island (Fri).
Carnival Glory: 8/30 departure from Pt. Canaveral: The ship will visit St. Thomas (Tue) and St. Maarten (Wed)
Carnival Liberty: 8/30 departure from Miami: The ship will visit the ports of call in reverse order Ocho Rios (Mon), Grand Cayman (Tue), Cozumel (Thur).
Carnival Conquest: 8/31 departure from Galveston: The ship will visit Progreso, (Tue), Cozumel (Wed) and Grand Cayman (Thur).
Carnival Legend: 8/31 departure from Tampa: The ship will visit Key West (Mon), Cozumel (Wed), Belize (Thur) and Isla Roatan (Fri).
Carnival Triumph: 8/31 departure from Miami: The ship will cancel the calls to Half Moon Cay (Mon) and Grand Turk (Fri); and visit the scheduled ports of call of St. Thomas (Wed) and San Juan (Thur).
Carnival Sensation: 9/4 departure from Port Canaveral: The ship will replace the scheduled call in Nassau with Freeport (Sat.).
We are looking forward to welcoming our guests aboard all of the Carnival "Fun Ships." The officers, staff and crew on each of our ships are dedicated to delivering a great cruise vacation experience.
NCL Tropical Storm Update - September 5, 2008 9:00 am EST
Norwegian Cruise Line is closely monitoring the path of Hurricane Ike and Tropical Storm Hanna as the safety and security of our guests and crew is of the utmost importance.
At this time, we are not altering any of our ships' itineraries. However, we will continue to closely monitor the weather situation and depending on the projected paths of the storms, we may be required to modify some itineraries, including Norwegian Sky's itinerary for Monday, September 8, 2008.
NCL will continue to closely monitor the weather conditions and will update this information as necessary.
Tropical Weather Update from Royal Caribbean, September 4
The safety of our guests and crew members is always our foremost concern.
Given the locations and projected path of Tropical Storm Hanna, we are altering the itineraries of three ships:
Ships sailing from Port Canaveral
Sovereign of the Seas, which departed Port Canaveral Monday, September 1, will sail a revised itinerary. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday; and Key West, Florida, Wednesday, spending the night and departing Thursday morning.
The next sailing, departing Port Canaveral Friday, September 5, is expected to sail as scheduled.
Mariner of the Seas, which departed Port Canaveral Sunday, August 31, will sail a modified itinerary. The ship will not visit Coco Cay, Bahamas, Monday, but will makes its scheduled port calls in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, Wednesday; and Philipsburg, St. Maarten, Thursday.
Ships sailing from the Port of Miami
Majesty of the Seas, which departed the Port of Miami Monday, September 1, will sail a revised itinerary. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday; and visit Key West, Florida, Wednesday, spending the night and departing Thursday evening.
At this time, no other Royal Caribbean International ships are being adversely impacted by tropical weather.
September 4, 2008
In pictures: Haiti reels from storms
Some photos from Haiti here from the BBC.
After Gustav, Two More Storms Take Aim at U.S.
This piece is a little dated already - we know now that Ike is a major hurricane:
September 2, 2008
Tropical Update, Monday September 2, 2008
Here is our update on the current named storms:
Gustav is winding down over land - it will probably be a TD when the NHC comes out with their morning update:
Hanna seems to have drifted to the south a bit - it must be soaking the Turks & Caicos islands. It is also closer to Cuba and Hispaniola which can not be good news for those islands that are already drenched. Max sustained winds are 70 miles an hour. The NHC still has this heading north west at some point soon. Only time will tell.
Ike is making a brisk move westward:
AN AMSU PASS AT 0020Z PROVIDED SOME CONFIDENCE IN ESTIMATING A TRACK AT 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE MOVING BRISKLY OFF TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.
And... TD 10 (!) has formed way out in the open Atlantic:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 23.9W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
You can find all the latest NHC updates on these systems in the left hand navigation on the Hurricane blog home page.
In short - the Turks & Caicos, the Bahamas, Cuba, Hispaniola, and the US east coast from Florida to at least South Carolina need to be on alert for these next couple of storms - Hanna and Ike. TD 10 is a little too far out yet but the initial path looks to take it towards Ike's path if not a little more to the north. Again though, it is early and you never know. The NHC didn't have the jog to the south for Gustav that took it to the south coast of Jamaica, and they also had not imagine Hanna stalling around the T&C for a couple of days. The models do what they can - but every scenario is a new one. The only thing we know for sure is that the hurricane season is in full swing. Stay safe.
September 1, 2008
Tropical Weather Update from Royal Caribbean
Royal Caribbean International continues to closely monitor the path and progress of Hurricane Hanna to ensure our guests enjoy safe and comfortable cruises, and to make certain our ships steer clear of the storm.
The safety of our guests and crew members is always our foremost concern.
Given the location and projected path of Hurricane Hanna, we are altering the itinerary of four ships:
Ships sailing from Port Canaveral
Sovereign of the Seas, which departs Port Canaveral Monday, September 1, will sail a revised itinerary. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday; and Key West, Florida, Wednesday, spending the night and departing Thursday morning.
Mariner of the Seas, which departs Port Canaveral Sunday, August 31, will sail a modified itinerary. The ship will not visit Coco Cay, Bahamas, Monday, but will makes its scheduled port calls in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, Wednesday; and Philipsburg, St. Maarten, Thursday.
Ships sailing from the Port of Miami
Majesty of the Seas, which departs the Port of Miami Monday, September 1, will sail a revised itinerary. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday; be at sea Wednesday and visit Key West, Florida, Thursday.
Liberty of the Seas, which departs the Port of Miami Saturday, August 30, will sail a revised itinerary, with its ports of call simply reordered. The ship will visit Labadee, Haiti, Monday; San Juan, Puerto Rico, Tuesday; and Philipsburg, St. Maarten, Wednesday.
At this time, no other Royal Caribbean International ships are being adversely impacted by tropical weather.
We will continue to closely monitor weather conditions and will update this information Tuesday, September 2, at 10:30 a.m.
Tropical Round Up
So you got out for a couple of hours and look what happens. We have been following hurricanes since we started Caribbean-On-Line in 1995 and not much in memory comes close to this. Three named storms at once, one potential huge storm all the way across the Atlantic, and a couple of other tropical waves thrown in for good measure.
The pattern seems pretty set for September here - the tropics are hot, the water is warm, and the tropical waves keep coming off of Africa at a fairly steady clip.
Gustav is drawing to an end after making landfall today, but Hanna looks like a sleeper storm - it became better organized today and grew into a hurricane while the world was watching Gustav. Hanna could be trouble for the Bahamas and eventually the east coast of the US.
And Ike is already forecast to become a hurricane in several days and take a path somewhere across the Bahamas. We will be keeping you up to speed on it all here on the hurricane blog.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2008
September is usually the peak of the hurricane season - you are seeing why:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA...ON RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE STORM HANNA...LOCATED VERY NEAR MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND ON RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE LOCATED HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.
2. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
August 31, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
Gustav, Hanna, and two more systems out in the Atlantic - a very busy Sunday for the NHC:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Tropical Update, Sunday August 31, 2008
As of Sunday morning TS Hanna is looking somewhat disorganized. The NHC has made radical changes to the path of this storm in the last couple of days, and the atmosphere surrounding it seems very unstable - so a lot could still change, from it getting sheared apart, to it becoming better organized again. We'll just have to wait and see what mother nature is up to with this one.
Hurricane Gustav came off of Cuba looking weaker than expected. Any weakness now is good news for the US Gulf Coast:
August 30, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS FROM THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 28, 2008
Wow!
The tropics are very active at the moment. This is a heck of an image if you are a weather buff:
If you are planning any travel in the Caribbean, Central America, the Gulf Coast, Florida, etc. in the next week or two you better be paying attention to the weather. I am going to take this opportunity to plug travel insurance again also - remember - you have to be covered before a storm is named to be covered!
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV...LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 305 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
1. A CONCENTRATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS PERSISTED TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE YET OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION OVER WATER. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE MOVING VERY SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO TODAY AND FRIDAY.
2. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS SPARSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
3. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND IS ABOUT TO EMERGE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
UPDATE
Area 1 just become TD 8 - this will probably become Hanna as the day goes on -
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
Area 1 is looking very ripe at the moment. Looks like we will have two named storms at the same time soon:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY BE FORMING ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
2. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MILES PER HOUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 26, 2008
The Atlantic heats up
Lots of action popping up this afternoon across the Atlantic as the dog days of August draw to an end:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED JUST INLAND ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI...AND THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY...LOCATED NEAR THE ALABAMA/TENNESSEE BORDER.
1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST- NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THEY ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
3. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 25, 2008
New system could be a tropical storm at any time
The tropical wave that the NHC has been tracking is looking more organized this morning and it seems they expect it to become a named storm at any time:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
1. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT. WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY.
2. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 22, 2008
Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
The NHC is now watching two areas for potential tropical activity. The one closer to the islands well definitely bring wind and rain with it, even if it doesn't develop into a named storm:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FAY...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.
1. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SOME DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 20 TO 25 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 15, 2008
Tropical Development Soon?
AccuWeather thinks this current system will become Tropical Storm Fay - soon:
Once away from Hispaniola, this system will probably quickly increase in strength to become Tropical Storm Fay, going from a depression to a tropical storm in mere hours. Also, its track will turn to the northwest, and its forward speed will slow. The southeastern Bahamas will begin to feel its effects Saturday morning. Again, the center of this system may be centered over land at times Saturday, this time the Bahamas. However, the Bahamas are not as large or as mountainous as Hispaniola, so their effects on this storm will not be nearly as strong, and intensification may occur.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008
The system over Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands looks like a tropical storm - guess we will have to wait for the next update from the NHC:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND IS LOCATED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT... HOWEVER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.
2. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.