Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



Caribbean Weather News

Commentary, links and stories about Caribbean weather, especially tropical weather and hurricanes. Most weather stories are archived here unless the storm system has a name (i.e. becomes a hurricane or tropical storm).

Maria hanging on

Published on September 24, 2017 9:50 PM | Comments

From Tropical Tidbits:



Tuesday Evening Update on Hurricanes Maria and Jose

Published on September 19, 2017 9:41 PM | Comments

Tropical Tidbits:



Monday Evening Update on Hurricanes Maria and Jose

Published on September 18, 2017 8:48 PM | Comments

Dominica taking a direct hit from a very powerful hurricane this evening. This video, just a couple of hours old, had the track a bit further north than the actual.



Tropical Tidbits, September 17th, 2017

Published on September 17, 2017 8:15 PM | Comments

These reports are just excellent:



Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, September 16th, 2017

Published on September 16, 2017 10:03 PM | Comments

TD 15 has in fact become Maria.



Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 1

Published on September 16, 2017 11:17 AM | Comments

Have to hope this forecast is just dead wrong:

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located
several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become better
organized with curved banding features now better established.
Since there is still no indication of a well-defined center and
because tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of
the Leeward Islands, NHC has initiated advisories on this system as
a potential tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed is estimated
to be 30 kt based on a blend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is 280/19, but this is uncertain due to
the lack of a clear center. A slower west-northwestward motion is
expected during the next several days as a mid-level ridge to the
north of the system weakens but remains nearly stationary. The NHC
track forecast takes the system across the Leeward Islands in a few
days and then near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by the end of
the forecast period. It should be noted that confidence in the
track and forward speed of this system is low due to the spread in
the models and the current lack of a well-defined center.

The disturbance is expected to be in environmental conditions
conducive for strengthening during the next several days as the
shear is expected to be 10 kt or less while the cyclone moves over
warm 29 deg C SSTs. These conditions should allow for at least
steady strengthening, and the models unanimously show that trend.
The NHC intensity forecast is conservative for now, but does show
the system becoming a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by
the time it reaches the Leeward Islands.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The disturbance is expected to intensify and will likely bring
tropical storm and hurricane conditions as well as flooding
rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles early next week. These
conditions could also spread into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
by mid week. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress
of this system and follow any advice given by local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 12.2N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/0000Z 12.8N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 17/1200Z 13.6N 55.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 14.3N 56.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 15.0N 58.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 16.3N 61.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 17.6N 64.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 18.7N 67.3W 80 KT 90 MPH



TD Fifteen, A Tropical Storm Watch in effect for St. Lucia, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Dominica

Published on September 16, 2017 11:02 AM | Comments

Hurricane Jose, Tropical Storm Lee, and Tropical Depression 15 are currently active in the Atlantic. Jose is no longer a threat the Caribbean at all, and Lee is forecast to remain a tropical storm and head northwest, but TD 15 could become a named storm this weekend and if so would be a threat to the Lesser Antilles. The NHC is currently forecasting a 90% chance of this - so people should be paying attention and be ready to make preparations quickly if need be.

This storm could - and again could - this is only a long range forecast, become a hurricane and impact several of the same islands that bore the brunt of Irma.

145528_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 50.5W
ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Lucia.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Martinique and Guadeloupe.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane
Watches will likely be issued later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 12.2 North, longitude 50.5 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A slower west-northwest
motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the system is expected to approach the Leeward Islands on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. The
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and
could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Leeward
Islands.

Satellite images indicate that the disturbance has become better
organized, and it is expected to become a tropical cyclone later
today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within portions of Leeward
Islands by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Monday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches across portions of the central and southern Leeward Islands
through Tuesday night. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to begin
affecting the Lesser Antilles by Sunday night. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.




Tropical Tidbits, September 15, 2017

Published on September 16, 2017 10:50 AM | Comments



Tropical Tidbits for Friday, September 8th, 2017

Published on September 8, 2017 11:48 PM | Comments



Meteo St. Barth

Published on September 7, 2017 7:18 PM | Comments

This is an amazing image, the eyes of two huge hurricanes with St. Barth right in the middle:

1.jpg




Multiple Hurricane Update

Published on September 7, 2017 6:48 PM | Comments

Hurricanes Irma and Jose continue to threaten the Caribbean region.

Tonight Irma is due north of Hispaniola and looks to blow through the Turks and Caicos overnight and tomorrow.

215356_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Jose, dangerously and cruelly looks like it may impact the northern leeward islands, the islands hardest hit by Irma, on the weekend.

204128_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

The forecast advisories:

HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY... CIEGO DE AVILA... SANCTI SPIRITUS
AND VILLA CLARA. THIS INCLUDES THE CUBAN KEYS ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE OF THESE PROVINCES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA
BEACH
* FLORIDA KEYS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH
HAITI
* HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE
MOLE ST. NICHOLAS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY... CIEGO DE AVILA... SANCTI SPIRITUS
AND VILLA CLARA.
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA
BEACH
* FLORIDA KEYS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO... HOLGUIN... LAS TUNAS AND
MATANZAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI FROM SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO PORT-AU-PRINCE
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO... HOLGUIN... LAS TUNAS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...AS WELL
AS CUBA AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 71.1W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 922 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 210SE 60SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 71.1W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 70.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.6N 73.1W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.2N 75.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.7N 77.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.4N 79.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.2N 80.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 31.5N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 36.0N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 71.1W

And for Jose:

HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST KITTS... AND NEVIS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ST. MARTIN AND SINT
MAARTEN BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 52.4W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..195NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 52.4W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 51.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.0N 54.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.6N 57.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.3N 59.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 15SE 15SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.4N 61.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.9N 65.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 25.5N 67.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.3N 67.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 52.4W



Tropical Storms Ian and Julia

Published on September 13, 2016 11:19 PM | Comments

A couple of storms formed in the last 48 hours - Ian is an Atlantic storm that is way out to sea and not forecast to become a hurricane - this storm looks to be a shipping concern only.

Julia popped up late today in the very northeastern corner of Florida and is heading almost due north - forecast to fall apart to a tropical depression by Thursday.

So things are active but the Caribbean region is in good shape.

There is one more active tropical wave way out across the Atlantic:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.

We'll be keeping an eye on it!



Disturbance to Watch

Published on September 10, 2016 9:27 PM | Comments

There is some messy weather in and around the Caribbean basin that is not anything major, but the National Hurricane Center is tracking a system (number 1 in the image - 90% chance of tropical formation within the next 5 days) that is still about 1,000 east of the Lesser Antilles that should be monitored:



Atlantic 2 Day Forecast September 10, 2016



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving slowly northwestward. Satellite imagery
indicates that the circulation has become better defined today, but
the associated thunderstorm has not become any better organized in
the past few hours. Conditions are still favorable for a tropical
depression to form by during the next day or two while this
disturbance moves toward the northwest over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located north of Hispaniola
remains disorganized. There are no signs of a surface circulation,
and conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant
development of this system while it moves generally west-
northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

3. A weak area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern
Gulf of Mexico remains devoid of thunderstorm activity. Upper-level
winds are not favorable for development, and the low is forecast to
weaken while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph
into the central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent



Another disturbance in the region

Published on September 4, 2016 6:18 PM | Comments

There is a tropical wave oving across the Lesser Antilles - development chances are slim, so hopefully it just brings the always much needed rain for cisterns (along with some windy conditions):

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Hermine, located off of the mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States.

1. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
moving across the Lesser Antilles. This wave continues to produce
a large area of showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds.
Significant development of this system appears unlikely while it
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the Caribbean Sea during the
next several days. Regardless of whether or not development occurs,
this wave will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds over portions of the Lesser Antilles through early Monday and
should spread over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent



Three Storms

Published on August 31, 2016 8:31 PM | Comments

There is a lot of Tropical weather action in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, but no direct threats to the Caribbean region:

  1. Hurricane Gaston - category 2 storm, but way out in the Atlantic
  2. Tropical Storm Hermine - headed for the Florida panhandle and then through the lower Atlantic states... could spoil the holiday weekend in NJ and NY
  3. Tropical Depression 8 - off the North Carolina/Virginia coast and headed further out to the Atlantic
  4. atlantic storms august 30 2016.png

    So nothing much for the Caribbean to worry about for the next several days.



    Tropical Weather Update

    Published on August 23, 2016 9:11 PM | Comments

    We have had some people ask so here is what is going on currently:

    • FIONA is done - the NHC issued their last advisory at 11 EST today -

    • GASTON is a tropical storm and expected to get to hurricane strength by Wednesday, but tracking well east of Bermuda -

    • There is another tropical depression east of the lesser Antilles - this is the only system that could threaten the Caribbean currently, and it could strengthen but the forecast is not confident - yet. This area bears watching (from the NHC):

      As of 8:00 pm EDT Tue Aug 23 2016... Satellite images, surface observations, and radar from the Lesser Antilles indicate that a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become a little better defined. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, this system could become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph near the Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles. Conditions could become more conducive later this week while the system moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance tomorrow, if necessary. Interests from the islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mud slides could occur over portions of these areas regardless of tropical cyclone formation.


    Multiple Disturbances

    Published on August 22, 2016 9:55 PM | Comments

    The NHC is reporting on several systems - Tropical Depression Fiona is weak and looks to be meandering safely between The Bahamas and Bermuda.

    There is a depression behind Fiona, and then there is TD seven, which looks like it could become a hurricane eventually but seems to be tracking east of Bermuda. So - lots of disturbed weather but nothing that looks too threatening to the Caribbean at this moment. We'll keep an eye out this week for sure -



    Disturbance in The Atlantic

    Published on August 16, 2016 9:15 PM | Comments

    It's way out there - and who knows at this point where it will end up, but the NHC seems to think the chance of organization is high. We'll be keeping an eye on it:

    Atlantic Ocean Satellite

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
    located about 650 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
    have become more concentrated and better organized during the past
    several hours. If this development trend continues, advisories
    would be initiated on a tropical depression tonight or Wednesday.
    This system is expected to move generally northwestward over the
    open waters of the central Atlantic during the next several days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent




    2 Lows in the area

    Published on August 6, 2016 10:20 AM | Comments

    The NHS is posting info on two separate areas of unsettled weather this morning. Neither look to have much potential to develop into anything major at this point, and if they do they don't look like they would affect the Caribbean basin - the larger one could become an issue for the Bahamas by sometime next week. We'll keep an eye out but it looks like if you live or are traveling to any Caribbean islands this weekend you'll be fine!

    Caribbean Tropical Outlook

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    800 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Depression Earl, located well inland over Mexico west of Veracruz.

    1. An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
    low pressure is located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Some
    gradual development is possible before the system moves inland over
    the southeastern United States in a couple of days. Regardless of
    development, heavy rainfall over northern Florida is anticipated.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

    2. A tropical wave is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers
    just north of Puerto Rico and the adjacent Atlantic. An area of
    low pressure could form in the middle of next week between
    Florida and Bermuda while the activity moves west-northwestward
    and then northward over the Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent



    CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING WARNING

    Published on August 1, 2016 4:29 PM | Comments

    The NHC is discussing but not naming a strong area of weather that is currently in the Caribbean basin. This morning on the satellite images it definitely looked like something, here is what they are currently saying:

    A strong tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis extending from 21N71W to a 1007 mb low near 16N72W to 12N72W. A gale warning is in effect for the southwest area within 90 nm and 45 nm from the wave's axis. The tropical wave and low are moving west at about 15-20 kt with numerous showers and thunderstorms from 14N-20N between 68W-74W affecting Hispaniola at this time. This system has a high chance of tropical development within the next 24-48 hours. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

    See this page also - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php - there is a high chance that this turns into a named storm and tracks to the Yucatan peninsula.

    And here is the latest outlook:

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea, centered
    about 275 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to
    move quickly westward at about 20 mph. Thunderstorm activity
    associated with the wave remains organized, but the system still
    appears to lack a closed surface circulation. Environmental
    conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
    and a tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight. An
    Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to
    investigate this system late this afternoon. Regardless of
    development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to
    tropical storm force, will continue over portions of the Dominican
    Republic and Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm conditions
    are likely to occur over Jamaica by this evening, and could reach
    the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests in these areas and
    elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor
    the progress of this disturbance. For additional information, see
    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
    found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
    the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

    Forecaster Brown



    Possible storm brewing in the Atlantic

    Published on August 20, 2014 11:11 PM | Comments

    The NHC is keeping eyes on this thing:

    Possible storm brewing in the Atlantic

    The chances of tropical storm formation and not that high, but worth watching:

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is slowly becoming better organized. Additional development is possible during the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. After that time, land interaction could limit development potential over the weekend. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday. Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low tomorrow afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.



    Tropical disturbance getting close to the Lesser Antilles

    Published on July 31, 2014 6:24 PM | Comments

    two_atl_7.31.14.png

    SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 415 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has continued to investigate the low pressure system located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands. Observations from the aircraft indicate that this system is producing winds of up to 40 to 45 mph in the northern portion of the circulation. Showers and thunderstorms could redevelop over the low tonight or Friday, which could result in tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of development, winds of gale force are likely to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning early Friday. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves west-northwestward near 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be required for some of these islands later tonight or Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.



    Tropical Depression Two

    Published on July 21, 2014 10:05 PM | Comments

    Not expected to turn into much - but could bring some rain and wind to the islands:

    Tropical Depression Two

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 500 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

    The area of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic has shown an
    increase in convective organization today. Despite the fact that the
    convection remains somewhat shallow, it has enough coverage and
    organization to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT
    pass around 1210 UTC was not conclusive in regards to whether the
    surface circulation was closed, but given the persistence of the
    convection, we are assuming that the circulation is closed and
    are initiating advisories at this time.

    The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on data from the ASCAT pass.
    The environment is marginal, at best, for development during the
    next couple of days, as the depression will be moving over marginal
    SSTs and into a region characterized by dry air and subsidence as it
    approaches the Caribbean Sea. Most of the global model guidance and
    the HWRF shows the system weakening and dissipating by 48 to 72
    hours. The official forecast follows suit, but the cyclone could
    dissipate sooner than shown here. The SHIPS and LGEM intensity
    forecasts seem much too high in this scenario, and are not given
    much weight in the official forecast.

    The initial motion is quickly toward the west or 280/14 knots. The
    cyclone will be steered by the Atlantic subtropical ridge during its
    life span, and should remain on a westward to west-northwestward
    heading with an increase in forward speed. The NHC track forecast is
    close to a blend of the HWRF and the GEFS ensemble mean. Note that
    the global models are having a difficult time tracking the small
    vortex, and confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower
    than usual.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 21/2100Z 11.6N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
    12H 22/0600Z 11.9N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
    24H 22/1800Z 12.3N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
    36H 23/0600Z 12.8N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
    48H 23/1800Z 13.4N 54.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
    72H 24/1800Z 15.0N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED



    All quiet in the Caribbean

    Published on October 18, 2013 7:58 AM | Comments

    With no major Caribbean storms since Gabrielle over a month ago, the Caribbean basin remains quiet and the National Hurricane Center predicts that to remain the situation for the next several days. Overall the season has been much tamer than originally forecast, and the central Caribbean area has seen less named storms than the Gulf of Mexico. A strange season for sure, but certainly welcome. The less hurricanes, the better for everyone.

    There is not much left to the season but we will be watching - safe travels!



    Tropical Weather Update

    Published on September 11, 2013 11:06 AM | Comments

    There is a lot going on out there, but nothing immediately threatening the Caribbean, which is our focus here. The worst news is that Gabrielle is a Tropical Storm again and is currently over Bermuda. There are several other systems, including Hurricane Humberto, which is way out in the Atlantic and does not appear to be any threat to the Caribbean.

    Things seem to be heating up a bit and we are in the heart of the season, which the experts have recently downgraded. We'll be watching closely in the coming weeks.



    Large system in the middle of the Caribbean

    Published on September 3, 2013 11:50 PM | Comments

    The NHC is not making it sound like this has much of a chance to become a tropical cyclone, but it is still a large weather system in the Caribbean basin that could be bring a lot of rain and wind to some islands:

    9.3.13.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    800 PM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
    IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
    WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
    DAYS...BUT INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND
    PUERTO RICO COULD INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM
    MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS
    SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
    CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
    PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
    REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY
    RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
    NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SPREAD OVER
    PUERTO RICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
    AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE TOMORROW
    AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

    2. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS MOVING
    WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
    DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
    BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
    CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
    NEXT 5 DAYS.




    Two systems that need watching

    Published on August 15, 2013 7:54 AM | Comments

    There are a couple of systems that bear watching at the moment - one is almost certain (according to the NHC) of ending up as a Tropical Storm, but appears to be a Gulf of Mexico storm. The other is way out in the Atlantic, barely off the coast of Africa, but looking fairly well organized at the moment and could be, could be, a Caribbean threat (notice the mention below of the ECMWF model saying it degrades as it hits dry air - the ECMWF has been a very reliable model in the last couple of years). That one is already called TD 5.

    From the NHC for TD 5:

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013

    SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
    FIVE IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH TOPS
    COLDER THAN -80C HAS FORMED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER...AND
    THERE IS OUTER BANDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE
    INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BELOW TROPICAL STORM
    STRENGTH...SO THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A 30-KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS
    ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/14. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ON THE
    SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND
    THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL STEER THE
    CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE
    GUIDANCE DIVERGES. THE GFS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE
    CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TURNING WESTWARD. THE ECMWF...THE
    UKMET...AND THE GFDL SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
    MOTION...WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
    OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
    SHOWN A NORTHWARD SHIFT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. SINCE THE CYCLONE
    IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING
    THIS TIME...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A WESTWARD TURN IN BEST
    AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. WHILE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE
    NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 48 HR...IT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH
    OF THE ECMWF...THE UKMET...THE GFDL...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

    THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM SEA SURFACE
    TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME
    STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER WATERS IN 48 HR OR
    SO. WHILE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LEAVE THE COOLER WATERS AFTER
    THAT TIME...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
    IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER VERY DRY AIR AND WEAKEN...WITH THESE MODELS
    SHOWING THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING TO A TROPICAL WAVE BY 120 HR. THE
    NEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT YET FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO...AS THE
    SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW A STEADY-STATE OR STRENGTHENING SYSTEM.
    INSTEAD...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW WEAKENING AS A COMPROMISE
    BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.

    And for the area of disturbance near the Yucatan:

    SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH AND SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. BY FRIDAY...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

    We'll have more updates and information later in the day - it is a moving day here and we'll be on the road for most of it!



    What will the 2013 Hurricane Season be like?

    Published on June 12, 2013 5:02 PM | Comments

    Professionals are predicting an "extremely active" hurricane season - what do you think it will be like? Please use the new comment system to tell us.

    The NOAA says this year could be "above normal and possibly extremely active".

    I have been watching storms long enough to know that these preseason predictions can sometimes be way off - but the extremes in global weather patterns do seem to be increasing (the tornadoes in the U.S. and the record rainfall in Central Europe are two recent examples).

    As always, we hope whatever storms do crop wander aimlessly out to sea!



    Keep an eye on the mess in the middle of the Caribbean Sea

    Published on October 21, 2012 6:02 PM | Comments

    The big mess in the Caribbean Sea looks like it could become a tropical storm and produce a lot of rain:

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
    PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
    CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
    CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
    NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
    PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
    AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WELL
    SOUTH OF JAMAICA. HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO
    SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT
    SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
    FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

    2. A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A
    SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
    ATLANTIC ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
    ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
    DEVELOPMENT BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY. THIS
    SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
    CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
    NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Tropical Weather Outlook, October 12, 2012

    Published on October 12, 2012 5:55 AM | Comments

    There is a system just off St. Lucia that has the potential to become a tropical cyclone:

    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
    STORM PATTY...LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL
    BAHAMAS.

    1. DATA FROM THE BARBADOS WEATHER SERVICE RADAR...SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS...AND SATELLITES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
    NOW LOCATED ABOUT 30 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT LUCIA HAS
    CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. EVEN
    THOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SLOW
    DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
    TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
    TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
    OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
    DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
    POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
    COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
    SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.



    The Caribbean is pretty quiet!

    Published on October 4, 2012 12:17 PM | Comments

    Tropical activity has been so quiet in the Caribbean that I nearly forgot to check on it! Oscar is currently way out in the Atlantic, but moving in the wrong direction and not a threat to the region at all... otherwise things are looking pretty calm at the moment.



    Hurricanes, hurricanes

    Published on September 6, 2012 12:18 AM | Comments

    Hurricane Leslie has been around for what seems likes weeks already, and she is now looking like she will be a problem for Bermuda. Meanwhile Hurricane Michael is churning away out in the Atlantic (so we won't be paying much attention to him). The Caribbean for the moment looks fairly tranquil but the season is definitely an active one. We'll be keeping a close watch the rest of this month, which historically is prime hurricane season.

    And just to put this in perspective, in what seems like a super busy season so far, take a look at the chart below. Only two storms - Ernesto and Isaac - have really impacted the Caribbean basin, and neither of them were hurricane force when they did:

    2012-atlantic-hurricane-season-to-date.gif




    Tropical Weather Outlook August 19, 2012

    Published on August 19, 2012 3:16 PM | Comments

    According to the NHC this system out in the Atlantic bears watching:

    two_atl.8.19.12.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
    GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 220
    MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES.

    1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL
    WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
    SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
    BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
    APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
    DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
    A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
    20 TO 25 MPH.

    2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
    MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
    DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING
    THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
    BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
    DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF
    TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Tropical Storm Florence

    Published on August 5, 2012 12:33 PM | Comments

    Tropical Storm Florence is a weak system and expected to be downgraded to a tropical depression again as it nears the Leeward Islands later in the week. We are watching it, but probably won't report more unless it threatens the islands directly.

    tropical-storm-florence.gif


    Tropical Depression SIX forms off the coast of Africa

    Published on August 3, 2012 11:24 PM | Comments

    This system looked impressive coming off the African coast, but the models don't seem to think it will turn into anything big - at this point:

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
    1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

    THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EMERGED FROM WEST AFRICA YESTERDAY QUICKLY
    DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP
    CONVECTION TODAY. THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
    CENTER DUE TO THE IMPINGING EFFECTS OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
    VERTICAL SHEAR. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 2.0
    FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB...AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS
    PERSISTED AND IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE THAT TIME. THUS ADVISORIES
    ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. IT APPEARS THAT THE
    GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE WAS AIDED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE
    WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING
    CONVECTIVELY-COUPLED KELVIN WAVE AS DEPICTED BY ANALYSES FROM
    SUNY-ALBANY.

    MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT...AS THE
    SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
    NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. FINDING THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
    SUBSTANTIALLY AIDED BY SOME SSMI AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM
    NRL. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST
    FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. AFTER ABOUT TWO
    DAYS...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE WEAKENING AND
    THUS ADVECTED ALONG WESTWARD BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS. THE
    FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE TCVA CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
    MODELS.

    WHILE THE CYCLONE UNDERWENT GENESIS RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...IT MAY BE
    THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER. CURRENTLY THE
    CYCLONE IS BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.
    WHILE THIS SHOULD DIMINISH IN ABOUT A DAY...THE COMBINATION OF ONLY
    LUKEWARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A FAIRLY DRY STABLE
    ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO PEAK ONLY AS A LOW-END TROPICAL
    STORM. AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAKENING AND
    IT MAY NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FOUR OR FIVE AS
    SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS. THE
    INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL LGEM AND SHIPS
    MODELS AND THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WITH A BIT MORE
    EMPHASIS ON THE LATTER.



    Remnants of Ophelia, Tropical Storm Philippe UPDATE

    Published on September 27, 2011 9:16 AM | Comments

    This is an update - as Ophelia looks like it may in fact become a named storm again and could produce heavy rains for the Leeward islands:

    1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA...CENTERED A COUPLE
    OF HUNDRED MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
    IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE
    AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A BROAD
    CIRCULATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
    ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
    DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
    PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
    48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
    NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.

    The remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia are still hanging around north of the Leeward Islands, and Tropical Storm Philippe is out in the Atlantic meandering northward. Neither system looks at this point to be a risk to the Caribbean region.



    Possibly Irene

    Published on August 20, 2011 10:21 AM | Comments

    What possibly could be Tropical Storm Irene is brewing up and is very close to the Caribbean - this should be watched:

    1313841791.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    800 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
    STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROATAN
    HONDURAS.

    1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
    ANTILLES...MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
    THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
    SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA.
    HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS
    TIME. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY...AND A TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
    HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
    DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
    VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
    THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
    OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND OVER THE
    VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AN AIR FORCE
    RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
    SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

    2. A LARGE AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAPE
    VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
    ACTIVITY. THE LOW IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
    SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
    THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
    TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
    GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE CAPE VERDE
    ISLANDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.

    Here is the early model tracks of the storm, but this does not discuss what intensity it might reach:

    at201197_model.gif



    Couple of potential storms in the works

    Published on August 11, 2011 9:07 PM | Comments

    We saw recently how unpredictable tropical storm and hurricane forecasting can be with Emily - she never really got up to speed and the track changed enormously during the life of the storm. That being said, there are a couple of systems in the Atlantic now that the computer models are crunching away, and they have the potential to impact the Caribbean region in the days ahead. Again, I always write here about how if you are traveling to to the region you need to have purchased trip insurance before a storm is named, so if you are headed to the Caribbean in the next week or so, you should think about that NOW if you have not already!

    two_atl.8.11.11.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    800 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST OF
    THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
    THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE
    LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
    CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
    SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
    BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
    CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
    GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
    SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
    A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
    DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    3. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE
    ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA ARE
    ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT...IF
    ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT
    15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
    BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.

    And this is the ensemble model (all the models put together) for number two in the above image:

    at201193_ensmodel.gif




    SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

    Published on July 31, 2011 5:04 PM | Comments

    two_atl.7.31.11.gif

    SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    455 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF
    LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

    1. UPDATED...COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS HAVE LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF DATA
    RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
    ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
    NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT
    ...ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE
    THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
    CIRCULATION. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED
    TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...AND WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
    RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
    TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
    A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
    DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15
    MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR MONDAY
    ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
    OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY
    SHORT NOTICE...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
    THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
    SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Composite model track not looking good

    Published on July 30, 2011 8:39 AM | Comments

    This is the composite track this morning - if this storm does become a hurricane and stays anywhere near this course, several islands could be severely affected obviously:

    at201191_ensmodel.gif



    Tropical depression looking more ominous this morning

    Published on July 30, 2011 8:27 AM | Comments

    two_atl.8.30.11.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    800 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON FORMER
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION DON...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.

    1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
    SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE
    GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN LOW
    IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
    SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
    CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
    15 TO 20 MPH.

    2. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
    DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
    LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
    AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
    HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO ITS
    INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
    PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Tropical wave could bring heavy rain to Puerto Rico, Hispaniola

    Published on July 29, 2011 3:26 PM | Comments

    Sun-Sentinel (blog)

    With Tropical Storm Cindy and ex-Tropical Storm Bret nonfactors, the wave is worth watching because its moving west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph - and it's to the southeast of the US coast. For now, the hurricane center gives it a 30 percent chance of... more here.



    Tropical Wave

    Published on July 29, 2011 1:21 PM | Comments

    This could be something that the Caribbean may have to worry about -

    atl1.gif

    1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
    SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
    ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
    ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
    GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
    MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
    THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
    TO 20 MPH.

    Tropical Storm Don is a non-event for the Caribbean as it approaches landfall in Texas.



    Suppliers offer guarantees for the 2011 hurricane season

    Published on June 15, 2011 4:19 AM | Comments

    Travel Weekly is reporting on hotel policies for this hurricane season, including this from Bolongo Bay:

    Bolongo Bay, St. Thomas allows guests holding a confirmed reservation to cancel without penalty if St. Thomas is under a hurricane warning. Guests will be offered a full refund or be able to rebook at a later date. The same rate will be honored, provided travel is in the same season. If guests choose to travel in a different season, their deposit will be applied toward their new total. Guests already at the hotel will not be penalized for any early departure and any unused room nights already paid will be refunded. Guests who are unable to leave the resort due to flight cancellations or airport closures will be "encouraged to move to one of the island's enclosed resorts;" in the event guests are unable to leave the hotel, customers will receive accommodations at an "emergency rate."


    Hurricane outlook indicates an above-normal Atlantic season

    Published on May 31, 2011 6:37 AM | Comments

    We have heard this story before in the last several years, and fortunately for the region the forecast is not always right. That being said, the predictions from most agencies this year seem to be for an active season - this is from the NOAA:

    2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary

    NOAA's 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for a 65% chance of an above normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

    This outlook reflects an expected set of conditions that is conducive to above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity. These conditions are based on three climate factors:

    The tropical multi-decadal signal, which has contributed to the high-activity era in the Atlantic basin that began in 1995,
    A continuation of above-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea (called the Main Development Region),
    ENSO-neutral conditions most likely (no El Niño or La Niña), with lingering La Niña impacts into the summer.
    In addition, several dynamical model forecasts of the number and strength of tropical cyclones generally predict an above normal season.

    The conditions expected this year have historically produced some active Atlantic hurricane seasons. Therefore, the 2011 season could see activity comparable to a number of active seasons since 1995. We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2011:

    12-18 Named Storms,
    6-10 Hurricanes
    3-6 Major Hurricanes
    An ACE range of 105%-200% of the 1981-2010 median.
    The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.

    The official NHC seasonal averages are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.

    Hurricane Landfalls:
    It only takes one storm hitting your area to cause a disaster, regardless of the overall activity predicted in the seasonal outlook. Therefore, residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions are urged to prepare every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook.

    While NOAA does not make an official seasonal hurricane landfall outlook, the historical probability for multiple U.S. hurricane strikes, and for multiple hurricane strikes in the region around the Caribbean Sea, increases sharply for exceptionally active (i.e. hyperactive) seasons (ACE > 165% of the median). However, predicting where and when hurricanes will strike is related to daily weather patterns, which are not reliably predictable weeks or months in advance. Therefore, it is currently not possible to reliably predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season.



    Lisa & Matthew

    Published on September 24, 2010 9:25 AM | Comments

    There are a couple of named storms out there:

    Lisa is a non-event, it is very far out in the Atlantic and expected to stay there.

    Matthew is a tropical storm but it is moving almost dead west and is really a concern for Central America and Mexico, and not the Caribbean Islands. We'll keep an eye on this one and post more about it soon.

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    800 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
    STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 295 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
    ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW...LOCATED ABOUT 170 MILES
    EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.

    PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON MATTHEW ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC
    AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON MATTHEW
    ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
    MIATCMAT5.



    Tropical Weather Update

    Published on September 11, 2010 12:33 PM | Comments

    Igor looks to become a major hurricane in the coming week, but the current forecast track does take it north of the Caribbean basin. Whether it impacts the Bahamas, Bermuda, or the east coast of the U.S. is still a little too far away for the NHC to predict.

    Also of note is an area of storm in the southern part of the Caribbean - this is sort of a rare spot for a storm to develop from but it looks like it will become a storm eventually in the Caribbean basin - meaning the Leeward and Windward Islands will be clear of it already, but it could possibly impact Cuba, Jamaica, the Caymans, etc. Again - it is early to see where the NHC puts the path of this potential storm.

    Lastly there is a vigorous wave coming off of Africa they are watching. The official take is below:

    9.11.2010.two_atl.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    800 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2010

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
    STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 915 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
    ISLANDS.

    1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
    AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
    ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
    AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
    INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A HIGH
    CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
    DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    2. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS
    SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
    SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE
    WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
    CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
    DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.




    Looking better this morning

    Published on September 7, 2010 4:24 AM | Comments

    Gaston (or the remains of Gaston) finally appears to have blown apart, and there are a couple of other waves very far away off the coast of Africa. So things are looking clear for the Caribbean region for now.

    That being said - don't forget we are in the height of hurricane season. Make sure you keep up to date if you are a resident of or traveling to the Caribbean.


    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
    STORM HERMINE...LOCATED ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
    HARLINGEN TEXAS.

    1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD
    ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
    GASTON. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY DEFINED AND THE ENVIRONMENT
    SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
    FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...THERE
    IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
    CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    2. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE
    NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
    AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
    UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
    SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
    PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.

    3. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED BETWEEN THE
    CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
    A TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
    TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE
    NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
    SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010

    Published on September 6, 2010 5:28 AM | Comments

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2010

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION TEN...LOCATED ABOUT 205 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO
    MEXICO.

    1. THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON...LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF THE
    NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT AREA
    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
    CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
    EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY
    OR SO...AND MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
    AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
    PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
    THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BEGIN TO
    AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
    INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
    SYSTEM.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.

    PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
    HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/
    ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
    WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010

    Published on September 5, 2010 6:16 PM | Comments

    The former Gaston needs watching:

    8.5.2010.two_atl.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
    ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
    EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
    CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THE LOW COULD
    REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT
    AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
    SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
    BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS IF ADVISORIES ARE
    RE-INITIATED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS
    SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    2. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE
    BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
    GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
    HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
    AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
    BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
    PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010

    Published on September 4, 2010 4:14 AM | Comments

    September is traditionally the busiest time of hurricane season, and this season is no different. The remnants of Gaston are making noise, and unfortunately the earlier track had this heading straight into the Caribbean basin. We'll have to wait and see if it reforms into a Tropical Storm again and what the new track is, but it bears watching. There is also another potential system behind it.

    9.4.2010.two_atl.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 AM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
    DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 105 MILES
    EAST-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

    1. THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE
    LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. SHOWERS AND
    THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST
    OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
    CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
    FORM NEAR THE CENTER...THEN ADVISORIES COULD BE RE-INITIATED ON
    THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
    OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT
    48 HOURS.

    2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
    PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE
    VERDE ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL
    CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
    DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
    PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

    3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
    CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
    OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
    PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

    4. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA IS
    LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ENVIRONMENTAL
    CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION OF THIS
    SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
    BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
    MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.



    3 Storms at once

    Published on September 1, 2010 5:28 PM | Comments

    3 tropical storms at one time is really too much to handle - and as I write this, there appears to be a large wave coming off the coast of Africa yet again. First the good news for the Caribbean - Earl is gone from the region, and Fiona is quickly pulling away.

    The bad news is newly formed Gaston. Sometimes with this much activity there isn't a lot of fuel left for storms that come behind others on the same track, but the NHC is talking about this reaching hurricane status even though there is a lot of dry air around.

    It is a little early for the tracking but at this point it appears to be heading toward the northern Leeward Islands. The best hope is that the ridge that steered Fiona north is still in place by the time Gaston gets close and it follows the same path. But it needs to be watched closely for now.



    Atlantic Water Temperature

    Published on September 1, 2010 8:18 AM | Comments

    This is a recent photo - you can see the remains of Danielle, Earl, what is to become Fiona, and the system behind. The red indicates the warmth of the water, which feeds the strength of these hurricanes.

    atlantic-water-temp.jpg



    Caribbean Hurricane Update

    Published on August 31, 2010 10:56 AM | Comments

    To all of our 1,000+ alert subscribers, a recap:

    Hurricane Earl is pretty much done with the Caribbean. There are still some watches up for the Turks & Caicos and Bahamas, but it is pulling away an will be an east coast U.S. problem for the next several days. It appears it was a property damage type of storm on most islands - I have not seen any reports of deaths. There are several islands without power, etc. and it may take some weeks for all to be back to normal.

    Tropical Storm Fiona is forecast to veer northward and not reach hurricane status - there are some >watches and warnings up for Leeward Islands but this doesn't look like a serious storm at the moment.

    There is also another area that the NHC is watching off the Cape Verde islands. So, considering that the tropics are "hot" as they say in meteorological circles, you should be actively monitoring the situation as a resident or tourist.

    And don't forget that trip insurance is only good if you buy it before a storm is named. If you are traveling to the Caribbean between now and the end of hurricane season (November), buying trip insurance is probably not a bad idea (yes - we sell it as an affiliate - and we use it ourselves too!).

    Also please remember that you can take your email off this list at any time by using the unsubscribe option in the left column of this page.



    Several Storms At Once

    Published on August 27, 2010 6:26 AM | Comments

    8.27.2010.two_atl.gif

    We have an active storm cycle - two named storms, and one brewing. Earl could impact the Caribbean and needs to be watched. The system behind it, if it tracks lower than Earl, can also pose a risk to the region.

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
    DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 585 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND ON
    TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 1525 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
    LEEWARD ISLANDS.

    1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
    WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
    CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
    ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
    OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
    NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
    SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
    MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2010

    Published on August 25, 2010 1:54 AM | Comments

    8.25.2010.two_atl.gif

    Early Wednesday morning and we have Hurricane Danielle wobbling towards Bermuda, and another potentially large system behind her:

    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2010

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
    DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 795 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

    1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
    OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
    AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
    CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
    THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
    THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
    DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
    BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

    2. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING
    DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF
    ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS
    WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
    PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

    Published on August 7, 2010 6:23 PM | Comments

    two_atl.8.8.2010.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
    STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

    1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
    A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000
    MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
    CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
    DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
    WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
    PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.

    2. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
    EXPECTED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
    PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Possible good news on TD 4

    Published on August 2, 2010 2:02 PM | Comments

    The early "good" news on this system, at least as far as the Caribbean is concerned, is that for the moment model tracking has it north of the region: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_pos_nt4.html



    90% Chance of Tropical Storm Formation

    Published on August 2, 2010 8:05 AM | Comments

    This is looking like it could become a named storm - soon:

    8.2.2010.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    800 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2010

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
    SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
    VERDE ISLANDS REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
    REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
    FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
    90 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    2. A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
    THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED...
    AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AS
    IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 10 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
    EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT TWO
    DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
    BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

    Published on July 21, 2010 2:43 AM | Comments

    two_atl.7.21.10.8.42AM.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
    AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED
    MILES...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
    THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA...AND OVER THE
    ADJACENT WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
    ALTHOUGH A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED...
    ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
    TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
    AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
    CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
    OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
    DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
    TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND LIKELY AFFECT
    THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND
    CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
    THE HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
    SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook July 20

    Published on July 20, 2010 5:16 PM | Comments

    This system could develop into a named storm in the next 24 - 48 hours. If you are traveling to the Bahamas or Turks & Caicos, you should think about trip insurance now. Once a storm is named, it is too late to be covered!

    two_atl.7.20.10.11PM.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION... SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI... EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Hot Atlantic could heat up hurricane season

    Published on July 20, 2010 5:08 PM | Comments

    From the Herald Tribune:

    "The tropical Atlantic is hotter than ever and has been for the past three months, leading forecasters to stick with predictions for a busy hurricane season, despite a slow start.


    Related Links:
    Graphic: Sea surface temperatures warmer in Atlantic | Graphics
    Seas remain calm now because of dry air and strong winds over the Atlantic. But as the jet stream moves north in coming weeks, those conditions will wane, increasing chances for hurricanes, meteorologists said.

    Sea temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been 2 to 3 degrees higher than normal since April, which will help fuel any storms that form.

    But those temperatures -- the highest divergence from normal on record -- are only one factor in the hurricane equation."

    bilde.jpeg



    Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

    Published on September 19, 2009 12:06 PM | Comments

    Area 2 looking like more of an issue:

    two_atl-9.19.09.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED... CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

    2. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL SOON BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    A little noise to end the week

    Published on September 18, 2009 10:03 AM | Comments

    It has been very quiet this week for the "heart" of hurricane season - but a couple of things have popped back on the radar of the NHC today. Area 1 is the remains of Fred and is outside the Caribbean - area 2 is looking a little better organized though and the track is not really projected as yet. If you are heading to the Caribbean or the Bahamas in the next few days, it probably bears watching:

    two_atl-9.18.09.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED IS
    CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
    WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL
    WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
    THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
    BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE
    SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
    ORGANIZATION. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
    FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT
    MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
    DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
    BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Vacation

    Published on September 14, 2009 3:13 AM | Comments

    Sorry we were on our own vacation when the last couple of storms kicked through and were not able to update as usual. Thankfully for the region Erika and Fred were both not that big a deal. We are in the heart of the season now, and things are looking relatively quiet at the moment - just the remnants of Fred still far off in the Atlantic are on the radar.

    And thanks to the posters who stepped up with some local updates from the US Virgin Islands!



    Early track of what could be Erika

    Published on September 1, 2009 4:05 PM | Comments

    Notice the disclaimer at the bottom of this image. These are all the computer weather models at the moment. The NHC usually takes a composite view of the various models or the two or three they like best and throw out the outliers.

    track_early-ericka-1.png



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

    Published on September 1, 2009 3:51 PM | Comments

    This needs to be paid attention to:

    two_atl-2-9.1.09.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COULD BE DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO SEE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR...MORE LIKELY...A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE... GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

    2. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

    Published on September 1, 2009 5:37 AM | Comments

    Area #1 is looking quite organized at the moment. The NHC definitely thinks this thing has potential and that the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico could be in it's path. Anyone living in the Leeward Islands should be aware of this system - the forward movement has slowed to 10 MPH currently:

    two_atl.9.1.09.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE
    LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT IT
    STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION
    CENTER. HOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS
    PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
    THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
    DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
    HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
    FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
    LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
    RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.



    THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

    Published on August 31, 2009 7:51 AM | Comments

    Area 1 is looking better organized and the conditions appear favorable:

    two_atl.8.31.09.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

    You can get travel insurance and still be covered up until a system is formed - so if you are on the fence about it and have a Caribbean trip coming up, now would be a good time! CSA Travel Insurance insurance



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

    Published on August 28, 2009 3:46 PM | Comments

    This is still looking like it will develop - and now another large pulse seems to be right behind it:

    two_atl8.28.09.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

    1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

    Published on August 27, 2009 5:14 PM | Comments

    Area 1 is looking like it could become an issue. There isn't much information on the potential track however at this point. We'll be watching it closely:

    two_atl-8.27.09.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
    STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
    HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

    1. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
    350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
    SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW
    DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
    AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
    30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
    DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.




    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

    Published on August 25, 2009 12:19 PM | Comments

    It is looking like area 1 from the previous post is going to become a named storm - the models seem to think so. Good news is that is looks like it will be clear of the Caribbean:

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

    2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Disturbance in the Atlantic

    Published on August 25, 2009 6:34 AM | Comments

    The are marked #1 is a little better organized and the chances of it becoming a TD have been upgraded by the NHC:

    8.25.09.gif

    1. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


    Looking better for the Caribbean

    Published on August 17, 2009 6:01 AM | Comments

    Tropical Storm Ana has been downgraded again to a tropical depression and is blowing through the region south of St. Croix early Monday morning.

    And Tropical Storm Bill, while still forecast to become a major storm, looks like it is tracking to miss the Caribbean basin. So while still not out of the woods totally the situation is looking much better than it did 36 hours ago.

    Note - Bill is now a Hurricane:



    Two Tropical Storms Heading West in Atlantic

    Published on August 16, 2009 4:10 PM | Comments



    TD2 and the thing behind it...

    Published on August 14, 2009 9:36 AM | Comments

    TD2 has revved up again, and the rather large disturbance behind it is expected to become stronger also.

    Don't forget travel insurance if you are traveling to the region in the next few weeks - these storms do have the potential to impact the Caribbean region.

    8-14-two.jpg

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SLOW REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    3. A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Weak TD continues west, other disturbances form

    Published on August 12, 2009 12:14 PM | Comments

    There is lots going on but nothing serious yet:

    BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, 12 August 2009 - Forecasters and computer models remain uncertain about the path of Tropical Depression Two as well as how strong it is likely to become.

    And as the anaemic cyclone gets carried in the steering currents across the Atlantic, forecasters at the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) are also monitoring a strong tropical wave just off the west African coast which is showing signs of development.



    More storms in the pipeline?

    Published on August 11, 2009 9:25 AM | Comments

    Some interesting comments in this article - along with this fact:

    This year has brought the longest spell without a first named storm since 1992, when Hurricane Andrew was christened on Aug. 17. That storm then slammed into South Florida and ranked as the most destructive hurricane on record -- until Katrina in 2005.


    The Tropics start to heat up

    Published on August 11, 2009 9:17 AM | Comments

    The first real action of the season - there are a couple of tropical waves out there this morning - one in the Caribbean and one near it - and then there is TD 2:

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009 600 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

    ...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
    FORMS...

    SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER
    THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

    AT 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.6 WEST OR ABOUT 280
    MILES...455 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
    KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
    BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN A DAY OR TWO.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

    ...SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...14.4N 28.6W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    1100 AM AST.

    The good news on TD 2 is as early as it is the track does seem to be well north of the Caribbean basin for now. We'll be keeping a close eye on all of this activity this week however.



    Tropical disturbance becomes better organised

    Published on August 10, 2009 7:42 AM | Comments

    It is just off the African coast, but it seems that this system is organized enough already to be on the radar of the NHC. Again - this is a long way off and a lot can happen, but the conditions at the moment seem favorable for intensification:

    BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, 10 August 2009 - A tropical disturbance in the far Eastern Atlantic Ocean continues to develop and could become a tropical depression in the next day or two.

    The Tropical Prediction Centre (TPC) in Miami says there is a 1008MB low pressure area located along a tropical wave at 14 north and 23 west that is generating clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong showers.

    "Satellite imagery indicates a well defined low/mid level cyclonic circulation," the TPC says.

    More here from caribbean360.com



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

    Published on July 20, 2009 9:38 AM | Comments

    There is a system east of the islands, that while not forecast to become a named storm at this time, is still quite large and will make for some very wet and very windy weather over the next several days:

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
    LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
    UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
    DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS
    OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT
    THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE WAVE MOVES
    WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
    PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.



    El Niño Variant Is Linked to Hurricanes in Atlantic

    Published on July 6, 2009 8:38 AM | Comments

    From the NY Times:

    Scientists have known for some time that El Niño, the warm spell that turns up every four or five years in the waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean, reduces hurricane activity in the Atlantic. But in a new study, researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology have linked a variant of that pattern -- periodic warming in the central Pacific -- to more frequent hurricanes in the Atlantic, particularly on the Gulf Coast and in the Caribbean.


    Hurricane forecaster: "pretty quiet" season

    Published on July 2, 2009 9:57 AM | Comments

    June was quiet (good thing for us as we are behind in our updating of the blog!) and it is looking like the season may be quiet overall:

    June came and went without a tropical storm or hurricane. That's pretty common. July often is quiet as well. But one hurricane forecaster said today there are signs the quiet will continue.

    Lack of formation in the early season usually is attributed to waters not yet being warm enough to provide the heat storms use as fuel.

    While the eastern Atlantic Ocean, where monster storms tend to emerge, still isn't warm enough yet, the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean already are plenty warm in the early summer.

    But a greater factor is wind shear, the atmospheric phenomenon that tends to kneecap weather systems before they can consolidate.

    "Shear tends to be high this time of year, and it's even higher than normal this year," James Franklin, branch chief of the specialist unit at the National Hurricane Center, said this afternoon.

    "We're starting off with a pattern that looks very inhibitive across the Atlantic," Franklin said.

    Read the rest at the Palm Beach Post.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

    Published on June 26, 2009 10:45 AM | Comments

    A little activity in the Caribbean basin this morning:

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
    SOUTHWESTWARD TO HONDURAS. CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES THE
    YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW
    CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
    CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
    OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SPREAD
    WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE
    NEXT DAY OR SO.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Experts predict fewer hurricanes for 2009

    Published on April 22, 2009 4:43 PM | Comments

    First time I can recall seeing this headline in a few years, which makes me fear it may be wrong - from USAToday:

    Experts predict fewer hurricanes for 2009

    There will be fewer Atlantic hurricanes this season than in 2008, and fewer even than predicted only last December, according to a forecast released Tuesday.

    Colorado State University's hurricane forecast team's latest prediction calls for 12 named storms, including six hurricanes. Of those six, two are expected to be major hurricanes with maximum wind speeds of 111 mph or greater. The first of the storms in the Atlantic, which are named in alphabetical order, will be Ana.



    It's over!

    Published on December 2, 2008 10:45 AM | Comments

    Almost forgot that November 30th marked the end of the Hurricane Season! Here is the recap of storms from this year with links to our archives:

    Tropical Storm Arthur
    Hurricane Bertha
    • Tropical Storm Cristobal
    Hurricane Dolly
    • Tropical Storm Edouard
    Tropical Storm Fay
    Hurricane Gustav
    Hurricane Hanna
    Hurricane Ike
    Tropical Storm Josephine
    Hurricane Kyle
    • Subropical Storm Laura
    • Tropical Storm Marco
    Tropical Storm Nana
    Hurricane Omar
    • Tropical Depression Sixteen
    Hurricane Paloma

    More here from the National Hurricane Center. And the excellent StormCarib is always worth a visit.



    Tropics relatively quiet

    Published on October 29, 2008 5:09 AM | Comments

    The tropics are relatively quiet as the end of October nears. Hurricane season runs until the end of November, but the odds for a major storm this time of year greatly decrease:

    "The Atlantic basin shows a very peaked season from August through October, with 78% of the tropical storm days, 87% of the minor (Saffir-Simpson Scale categories 1 and 2) hurricane days, and 96% of the major (Saffir-Simpson Scale categories 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days occurring then (Landsea 1993). Maximum activity is in early to mid September. Once in a few years there may be a tropical cyclone occurring "out of season" - primarily in May or December."


    The tropics are active as the season winds down

    Published on October 14, 2008 11:45 AM | Comments

    Tropical Storm Nana has petered out, but Tropical Storm Omar formed this morning and looks highly likely to affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. We also have a new tropical depression to worry about, TD 16, which is currently forecast to hug the coast of Honduras and head westward towards the Belize/Guatemala border. Keep checking the home page of the Caribbean Hurricane Blog for more information.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

    Published on October 13, 2008 9:11 AM | Comments

    The end of the hurricane season is in sight - but that doesn't mean we are out of the woods yet for 2008. There are a couple of areas of concern out there in the moment - one already a storm and another with the potential to become one soon:

    two_atl.10.13.08.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM NANA...LOCATED ABOUT 1015 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

    1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND A PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON NANA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON NANA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

    Published on September 25, 2008 11:09 AM | Comments

    This system (#2) is still hanging around -

    two_atl.9.25.08.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE AND HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS OCCURS...STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR STATEMENTS FROM THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES...AND ALSO HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WARNINGS.

    2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

    Published on September 24, 2008 4:56 PM | Comments

    two_atl.9.24.08.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE LOW IS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WARNINGS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

    2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008

    Published on September 23, 2008 4:07 PM | Comments

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM.



    High Potential for Tropical Cyclone formation today

    Published on September 22, 2008 5:52 AM | Comments

    two_atl.9.22.08.gif

    Another system that might affect the western Caribbean:

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NEAR WESTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM PUERTO RICO INDICATE THAT 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ON PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...AND THESE RAINS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE DOMINICAN REPBULIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.




    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

    Published on September 12, 2008 6:41 PM | Comments

    Ike is the main story at the moment, but this site focusses on Caribbean weather - at the moment the NHC is watching two areas, but neither look to be that significant a threat:

    two_atl9.12.08.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE IKE...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

    1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...INCLUDING SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE...IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

    2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Hurricane policies in place for worried travelers

    Published on September 12, 2008 6:16 PM | Comments

    From CNN - some tips from the article:

    - Most airlines allow one ticket change without penalty for hurricane-affected fliers
    - Airlines outline specific dates and parameters for fee-free changes
    - Hotels in hurricane-prone areas usually have re-booking or refund policies in place
    - Cruise ships often can be re-routed to avoid major storms



    Hurricane Appeal, British Red Cross

    Published on September 10, 2008 9:07 AM | Comments

    For UK residents who want to help:

    Hurricanes Gustav, Hanna and Ike have hit countries across the Caribbean bringing misery and devastation to hundreds of thousands of people. Your help could make a huge difference to the lives of people in crisis. Click here to get started.


    Tropical update, Saturday September 7, 2008

    Published on September 6, 2008 7:41 PM | Comments

    Ike is a major hurricane on the doorstep of the Turks & Caicos - this is a dangerous storm and will be making landfall eventually on Cuba and then perhaps Louisiana (hurts just to write this):

    HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 500 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

    ...IKE HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH WINDS...

    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN.

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

    Hanna is racing up the east coast as a tropical storm with 50 MPH winds -

    TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

    AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...ALL OF CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC... WASHINGTON D.C...DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK HARBOR...LONG ISLAND SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    Josephine is just a remnant low now -



    In the path of Hurricane Ike

    Published on September 6, 2008 7:01 PM | Comments



    Hanna-Ike-Josephine storm trio isn't an anomaly

    Published on September 6, 2008 4:39 AM | Comments

    From the LA Times:

    Despite the prospect of three major tropical storms heading toward the Southeastern United States, meteorologists say that the conga-line assault is not particularly unusual in the stormy history of the region.

    "We're in peak season in an active hurricane cycle, and this is one of the results of that," said Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and public affairs officer with the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

    "We've had incidents where four or five storms have been stacked up."



    TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE from Carnival Cruise Lines

    Published on September 5, 2008 10:09 AM | Comments

    SEPTEMBER 4, 2008 - 12:30 PM

    We are closely monitoring the progress of Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike. All of Carnival's ships will continue to operate at a safe distance from these storms. Our number one priority is the safety of our guests and crew.

    We have made itinerary changes for several departures in order to provide our guests with an enjoyable shore experience, while operating the ships in the safest and most comfortable conditions:

    Carnival Miracle: 8/29 departure from New York: The ship will visit Port Canaveral (Mon), Freeport (Tue) and Newport, Rhode Island (Fri).

    Carnival Glory: 8/30 departure from Pt. Canaveral: The ship will visit St. Thomas (Tue) and St. Maarten (Wed)

    Carnival Liberty: 8/30 departure from Miami: The ship will visit the ports of call in reverse order Ocho Rios (Mon), Grand Cayman (Tue), Cozumel (Thur).

    Carnival Conquest: 8/31 departure from Galveston: The ship will visit Progreso, (Tue), Cozumel (Wed) and Grand Cayman (Thur).

    Carnival Legend: 8/31 departure from Tampa: The ship will visit Key West (Mon), Cozumel (Wed), Belize (Thur) and Isla Roatan (Fri).

    Carnival Triumph: 8/31 departure from Miami: The ship will cancel the calls to Half Moon Cay (Mon) and Grand Turk (Fri); and visit the scheduled ports of call of St. Thomas (Wed) and San Juan (Thur).

    Carnival Sensation: 9/4 departure from Port Canaveral: The ship will replace the scheduled call in Nassau with Freeport (Sat.).
    We are looking forward to welcoming our guests aboard all of the Carnival "Fun Ships." The officers, staff and crew on each of our ships are dedicated to delivering a great cruise vacation experience.



    NCL Tropical Storm Update - September 5, 2008 9:00 am EST

    Published on September 5, 2008 10:07 AM | Comments

    Tropical Storm Update - September 5, 2008 9:00 am EST Miami - Sep 5, 2008 ---

    Norwegian Cruise Line is closely monitoring the path of Hurricane Ike and Tropical Storm Hanna as the safety and security of our guests and crew is of the utmost importance.

    At this time, we are not altering any of our ships' itineraries. However, we will continue to closely monitor the weather situation and depending on the projected paths of the storms, we may be required to modify some itineraries, including Norwegian Sky's itinerary for Monday, September 8, 2008.

    NCL will continue to closely monitor the weather conditions and will update this information as necessary.



    Tropical Weather Update from Royal Caribbean, September 4

    Published on September 5, 2008 10:06 AM | Comments

    Tropical Weather Update September 4, 2008 - 6:30 p.m. Royal Caribbean International continues to closely monitor the path and progress of Tropical Storm Hanna to ensure our guests enjoy safe and comfortable cruises, and to make certain our ships steer clear of the storm.

    The safety of our guests and crew members is always our foremost concern.

    Given the locations and projected path of Tropical Storm Hanna, we are altering the itineraries of three ships:

    Ships sailing from Port Canaveral
    Sovereign of the Seas, which departed Port Canaveral Monday, September 1, will sail a revised itinerary. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday; and Key West, Florida, Wednesday, spending the night and departing Thursday morning.
    The next sailing, departing Port Canaveral Friday, September 5, is expected to sail as scheduled.

    Mariner of the Seas, which departed Port Canaveral Sunday, August 31, will sail a modified itinerary. The ship will not visit Coco Cay, Bahamas, Monday, but will makes its scheduled port calls in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, Wednesday; and Philipsburg, St. Maarten, Thursday.

    Ships sailing from the Port of Miami
    Majesty of the Seas, which departed the Port of Miami Monday, September 1, will sail a revised itinerary. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday; and visit Key West, Florida, Wednesday, spending the night and departing Thursday evening.

    At this time, no other Royal Caribbean International ships are being adversely impacted by tropical weather.




    In pictures: Haiti reels from storms

    Published on September 4, 2008 4:27 PM | Comments

    Some photos from Haiti here from the BBC.



    After Gustav, Two More Storms Take Aim at U.S.

    Published on September 4, 2008 7:06 AM | Comments

    This piece is a little dated already - we know now that Ike is a major hurricane:



    Tropical Update, Monday September 2, 2008

    Published on September 2, 2008 5:04 AM | Comments

    Here is our update on the current named storms:

    Gustav is winding down over land - it will probably be a TD when the NHC comes out with their morning update:

    THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE THIS EVENING AS THE STORM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. RECENT MAXIMUM DOPPLER VELOCITIES FROM THE LAKE CHARLES RADAR HAVE BEEN AROUND 65-70 KT AT ABOUT 4500 FT. THIS EQUATES TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE...THEREFORE GUSTAV IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. GUSTAV SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY... AND A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

    Hanna seems to have drifted to the south a bit - it must be soaking the Turks & Caicos islands. It is also closer to Cuba and Hispaniola which can not be good news for those islands that are already drenched. Max sustained winds are 70 miles an hour. The NHC still has this heading north west at some point soon. Only time will tell.

    CONVENTIONAL AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE HANNA HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WHILE MAINTAINING A PRONOUNCED EYE FEATURE IN A 02/203Z AMSU OVERPASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 KT AND T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

    Ike is making a brisk move westward:

    THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING WITH SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE BANDING EMBEDDED IN A LARGE SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 3.0 OR 45 KT...WHICH IS THE CURRENT INTENSITY.

    AN AMSU PASS AT 0020Z PROVIDED SOME CONFIDENCE IN ESTIMATING A TRACK AT 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE MOVING BRISKLY OFF TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.

    And... TD 10 (!) has formed way out in the open Atlantic:

    ROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2008

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 23.9W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    You can find all the latest NHC updates on these systems in the left hand navigation on the Hurricane blog home page.

    In short - the Turks & Caicos, the Bahamas, Cuba, Hispaniola, and the US east coast from Florida to at least South Carolina need to be on alert for these next couple of storms - Hanna and Ike. TD 10 is a little too far out yet but the initial path looks to take it towards Ike's path if not a little more to the north. Again though, it is early and you never know. The NHC didn't have the jog to the south for Gustav that took it to the south coast of Jamaica, and they also had not imagine Hanna stalling around the T&C for a couple of days. The models do what they can - but every scenario is a new one. The only thing we know for sure is that the hurricane season is in full swing. Stay safe.




    Tropical Weather Update from Royal Caribbean

    Published on September 1, 2008 8:02 PM | Comments

    Royal Caribbean International continues to closely monitor the path and progress of Hurricane Hanna to ensure our guests enjoy safe and comfortable cruises, and to make certain our ships steer clear of the storm.

    The safety of our guests and crew members is always our foremost concern.

    Given the location and projected path of Hurricane Hanna, we are altering the itinerary of four ships:

    Ships sailing from Port Canaveral
    Sovereign of the Seas, which departs Port Canaveral Monday, September 1, will sail a revised itinerary. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday; and Key West, Florida, Wednesday, spending the night and departing Thursday morning.

    Mariner of the Seas, which departs Port Canaveral Sunday, August 31, will sail a modified itinerary. The ship will not visit Coco Cay, Bahamas, Monday, but will makes its scheduled port calls in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, Wednesday; and Philipsburg, St. Maarten, Thursday.

    Ships sailing from the Port of Miami
    Majesty of the Seas, which departs the Port of Miami Monday, September 1, will sail a revised itinerary. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday; be at sea Wednesday and visit Key West, Florida, Thursday.

    Liberty of the Seas, which departs the Port of Miami Saturday, August 30, will sail a revised itinerary, with its ports of call simply reordered. The ship will visit Labadee, Haiti, Monday; San Juan, Puerto Rico, Tuesday; and Philipsburg, St. Maarten, Wednesday.

    At this time, no other Royal Caribbean International ships are being adversely impacted by tropical weather.

    We will continue to closely monitor weather conditions and will update this information Tuesday, September 2, at 10:30 a.m.



    Tropical Round Up

    Published on September 1, 2008 7:43 PM | Comments

    So you got out for a couple of hours and look what happens. We have been following hurricanes since we started Caribbean-On-Line in 1995 and not much in memory comes close to this. Three named storms at once, one potential huge storm all the way across the Atlantic, and a couple of other tropical waves thrown in for good measure.

    The pattern seems pretty set for September here - the tropics are hot, the water is warm, and the tropical waves keep coming off of Africa at a fairly steady clip.

    Gustav is drawing to an end after making landfall today, but Hanna looks like a sleeper storm - it became better organized today and grew into a hurricane while the world was watching Gustav. Hanna could be trouble for the Bahamas and eventually the east coast of the US.

    And Ike is already forecast to become a hurricane in several days and take a path somewhere across the Bahamas. We will be keeping you up to speed on it all here on the hurricane blog.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2008

    Published on September 1, 2008 6:45 PM | Comments

    September is usually the peak of the hurricane season - you are seeing why:

    two_atl.09.01.08.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA...ON RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE STORM HANNA...LOCATED VERY NEAR MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND ON RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE LOCATED HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.

    1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

    2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

    3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2008

    Published on September 1, 2008 6:24 AM | Comments

    two_atl.9.1.08.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

    1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

    2. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

    Published on August 31, 2008 9:28 AM | Comments

    Gustav, Hanna, and two more systems out in the Atlantic - a very busy Sunday for the NHC:

    two_atl.08.30.08.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

    1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

    2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.




    Tropical Update, Sunday August 31, 2008

    Published on August 31, 2008 5:49 AM | Comments

    As of Sunday morning TS Hanna is looking somewhat disorganized. The NHC has made radical changes to the path of this storm in the last couple of days, and the atmosphere surrounding it seems very unstable - so a lot could still change, from it getting sheared apart, to it becoming better organized again. We'll just have to wait and see what mother nature is up to with this one.

    Hurricane Gustav came off of Cuba looking weaker than expected. Any weakness now is good news for the US Gulf Coast:

    APPARENTLY...THE INTERACTION WITH WESTERN CUBA TOOK MORE OF A TOLL ON THE HURRICANE THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 112 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 98 KT...AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 958 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM THIS WEAKENING TREND AS THE EYE NO LONGER VISIBLE. AIRCRAFT AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED TO AROUND 25 N MI IN DIAMETER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KT...AND GUSTAV MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WEAKER FOR THE MOMENT. HOWEVER THIS WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE HURRICANE TRAVERSES THE RELATIVELY HIGH HEAT CONTENT OF THE GULF LOOP CURRENT. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE HEAT CONTENT DECREASES AND MOST MODELS INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. IN ADDITION...NONE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING OF GUSTAV...ALTHOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE SKILL OF THESE MODELS IS RATHER LOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE EARLIER ONE...BUT STILL SHOWS GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.


    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

    Published on August 30, 2008 5:25 PM | Comments

    two_atl.8.30.08.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

    1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

    2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS FROM THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Wow!

    Published on August 28, 2008 5:45 PM | Comments

    The tropics are very active at the moment. This is a heck of an image if you are a weather buff:

    two_atl2.8.28.08.gif

    If you are planning any travel in the Caribbean, Central America, the Gulf Coast, Florida, etc. in the next week or two you better be paying attention to the weather. I am going to take this opportunity to plug travel insurance again also - remember - you have to be covered before a storm is named to be covered!

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV...LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 305 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

    1. A CONCENTRATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS PERSISTED TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE YET OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION OVER WATER. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE MOVING VERY SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO TODAY AND FRIDAY.

    2. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS SPARSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

    3. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND IS ABOUT TO EMERGE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.



    UPDATE

    Published on August 28, 2008 4:50 AM | Comments

    Area 1 just become TD 8 - this will probably become Hanna as the day goes on -



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

    Published on August 28, 2008 4:30 AM | Comments

    two_atl.8.28.08.gif

    Area 1 is looking very ripe at the moment. Looks like we will have two named storms at the same time soon:

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

    1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY BE FORMING ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

    2. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MILES PER HOUR.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    The Atlantic heats up

    Published on August 26, 2008 3:52 PM | Comments

    Lots of action popping up this afternoon across the Atlantic as the dog days of August draw to an end:

    two_atl8.26.08.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED JUST INLAND ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI...AND THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY...LOCATED NEAR THE ALABAMA/TENNESSEE BORDER.

    1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST- NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THEY ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

    2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

    3. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    New system could be a tropical storm at any time

    Published on August 25, 2008 8:34 AM | Comments

    The tropical wave that the NHC has been tracking is looking more organized this morning and it seems they expect it to become a named storm at any time:

    two_atl.8.25.08.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

    1. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT. WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

    2. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

    Published on August 22, 2008 5:22 PM | Comments

    The NHC is now watching two areas for potential tropical activity. The one closer to the islands well definitely bring wind and rain with it, even if it doesn't develop into a named storm:

    two_atl08.22.08.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FAY...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

    1. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.

    2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SOME DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 20 TO 25 MPH.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Tropical Development Soon?

    Published on August 15, 2008 6:21 AM | Comments

    AccuWeather thinks this current system will become Tropical Storm Fay - soon:

    A tropical disturbance currently near Puerto Rico is expected to continue traveling west-northwestward and impact the island of Hispaniola today and tonight. Heavy rain, gusty winds, flooding and landslides may become problems in both of these islands. While the center of this disturbance is over land, development may be slow to occur, especially today, as it encounters the mountainous island of Hispaniola. However, conditions are favorable (low wind shear, warm ocean temperatures, plenty of moisture) for rapid development when and if this tropical system moves away from land.

    Once away from Hispaniola, this system will probably quickly increase in strength to become Tropical Storm Fay, going from a depression to a tropical storm in mere hours. Also, its track will turn to the northwest, and its forward speed will slow. The southeastern Bahamas will begin to feel its effects Saturday morning. Again, the center of this system may be centered over land at times Saturday, this time the Bahamas. However, the Bahamas are not as large or as mountainous as Hispaniola, so their effects on this storm will not be nearly as strong, and intensification may occur.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

    Published on August 15, 2008 4:30 AM | Comments

    The system over Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands looks like a tropical storm - guess we will have to wait for the next update from the NHC:

    two_atl-8.15.08.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND IS LOCATED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT... HOWEVER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

    2. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

    ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

    Published on August 11, 2008 4:27 PM | Comments

    two_atl.gif

    The NHC is looking at two areas currently that may effect the Caribbean:

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

    2. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

    ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Tropical Depression THREE

    Published on July 19, 2008 12:24 AM | Comments

    This storm is on the east coast of the US - so it really isn't something that is going to garner a lot of attention from us. Still more worried about the system currently coming through the Caribbean basin:

    THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS JAMAICA TONIGHT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

    Published on July 18, 2008 4:52 PM | Comments

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

    1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS JAMAICA TONIGHT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST OFF THE COASTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Area 1 looking more organized today...

    Published on July 18, 2008 12:00 PM | Comments

    atl1-7.18.08.gif

    1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM HAS FORMED. ALL INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15-20 MPH. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

    Published on July 17, 2008 8:40 PM | Comments

    Still a lot of unsettled weather in the region. Area 1 is still of concern for the Caribbean.

    two_atl-7.18.08.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
    STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 455 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

    1. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
    LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
    FOUND A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT NO WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
    CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
    HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
    A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS
    THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
    OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
    DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
    NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

    2. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
    CARIBBEAN SEA HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING.
    WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
    BEFORE MOVING INLAND TONIGHT OR FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
    WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
    THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
    MUDSLIDES.

    3. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW
    PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
    REMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
    GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
    COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION...ESPECIALLY IF THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS
    OFFSHORE...AS IT DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

    Published on July 16, 2008 9:23 PM | Comments

    This thing around Barbados (1) still could turn into a system:

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

    1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED A SHORT DISTANCE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BARBADOS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY COMPLETED ITS MISSION IN THE DISTURBANCE...AND FOUND A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT NO WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS EARLIER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

    2. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO. REGARDLESS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TOMORROW...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    3. DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    NHC: THE TROPICS ARE VERY BUSY FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY.

    Published on July 16, 2008 4:40 PM | Comments

    Things are - busy:

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE TROPICS ARE VERY BUSY FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY.

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 380 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

    1. DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RISING AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

    2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THIS AREA TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW.

    3. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF NICARAGUA IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA LATE TOMORROW. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TOMORROW...WITH FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Water vapor satellite...

    Published on July 16, 2008 11:23 AM | Comments

    ...image - of the yet to be named system:

    wv-l.jpg

    Looks pretty intense at the moment.



    Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 2 closeup

    Published on July 16, 2008 11:00 AM | Comments

    This doesn't look so good:

    atl2-close-7.16.08.gif

    2. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

    Published on July 16, 2008 9:51 AM | Comments

    It looks like the Caribbean needs to be concerned about this again, especially area 2:

    two_atl-7.16.08.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

    1. DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.

    2. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Tropical weather update

    Published on July 15, 2008 12:54 PM | Comments

    Bertha is still chugging along out in the open Atlantic. She is not longer any threat to the Caribbean and since she has passed Bermuda we will not be putting too much focus on this storm any more.

    Good news this morning from the NHC regarding the disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles:

    THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

    We will continue to monitor this one closely.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

    Published on July 14, 2008 11:00 PM | Comments

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

    1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

    Published on July 14, 2008 3:28 PM | Comments

    This other system brewing up looks like it has the potential to affect the Caribbean:

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

    1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS INCREASED A LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    I am worried about this one...

    Published on July 14, 2008 9:30 AM | Comments

    The NHC seems concerned about area 1 - and I am too since I am on St. Thomas for some business this week!

    two_atl-7.14.08.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

    1. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED AT THE PRESENT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    More areas of concern

    Published on July 13, 2008 8:25 AM | Comments

    The NHC is also looking at two more areas for potential tropical activity this Sunday morning. One off the east coast of the US and another, larger, area that is currently in the Atlantic off the coast of South America. We will be traveling today but will keep an eye on these and post whatever updates we can as soon as we can.

    two_atl7.13.08.gif

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

    1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

    2. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

    Published on July 2, 2008 10:58 PM | Comments

    The NHC is definitely watching this system that is still on the other side of the Atlantic. But now there is also a small disturbance very near the Caribbean islands:

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15 MPH.

    SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS ALSO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF UPPER- LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR OVER THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

    Published on July 2, 2008 12:18 AM | Comments

    The NHC is definitely on top of this system even though it is so far away:

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

    ...CORRECTED TIME OF PRODUCT...

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



    NHC watching a tropical wave

    Published on July 1, 2008 10:01 AM | Comments

    This thing is very far away but it has already caught the attention of the NHC:

    A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS A WEAK SURFACE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

    We will keep a close eye on any development and keep you posted.



    Storm Report: All quiet on the tropical front

    Published on June 12, 2008 9:15 AM | Comments

    "June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. Only one hurricane of Category 3 force (111 mph) or more has made landfall in June - unfortunately on the Came-ron coast in 1957. Those who were there still remember the death and destruction from Audrey."

    More here.



    National Hurricane Center says 1st tropical depression forms near Costa Rica

    Published on May 29, 2008 6:02 AM | Comments

    From the Canadian Press:

    MIAMI -- The National Hurricane Center says a tropical depression has formed off the coast of Costa Rica, just days before the Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins.

    Senior hurricane specialist James Franklin says the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm within the next 24 hours as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua. The depression had winds of 50 km/h and was moving north at five km/h. Forecasters say it was located 169 km/h west-northwest of Cabo Blanco.

    Franklin says the depression will primarily bring heavy rains rather than strong winds.

    The hurricane season begins June 1.



    AccuWeather: 12 named storms this hurricane season

    Published on May 16, 2008 11:32 AM | Comments

    My favorite hurricane guy, Joe Bastardi of Accuweather is looking for 12 named storms this season:

    HOUSTON (Reuters) - The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season will be near average in the number of storms, but there is a higher risk of a destructive storm hitting the U.S. East Coast, AccuWeather.com predicted on Monday.

    Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather's chief long-range and hurricane forecaster, said in an updated forecast he expects a total of 12 named storms in the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season.

    Two or three of the named storms would likely affect energy production areas in the Gulf of Mexico, which produces 25 percent of U.S. domestic crude oil and 15 percent of domestic natural gas, Bastardi said.

    "Every three years there's usually one major storm in the Gulf," Bastardi said in an interview in Houston.



    2008 Hurricane Season Will Be "Well Above Average"

    Published on April 10, 2008 5:37 AM | Comments

    We heard the same thing last year, but the experts are again calling for a pretty severe hurricane season. Only time will tell.

    Four major hurricanes, including one with a good chance of hitting the United States, will form in the Atlantic Ocean during the upcoming hurricane season, experts said today.

    Hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU) predict a "well above average" 2008 hurricane season, with 15 named tropical storms gathering between June 1 and November 30.



    Average Atlantic hurricane season draws to an end

    Published on December 3, 2007 9:28 AM | Comments

    From AFP:

    MIAMI (AFP) Residents of hurricane-prone areas heaved a sigh of relief as this year's Atlantic tropical storm season drew to an end, while experts wondered why forecasts for above-average activity have been so wrong.

    A total of 14 named storms, including six hurricanes developed in 2007, making it an average season.

    Forecasters had initially expected at least 17 named storms, nine of them hurricanes to form during the six-month Atlantic season that officially ends on November 30.

    "The reasons for this year's average season are challenging to explain," said Phil Klotzbach of the prominent Colorado State University hurricane forecast team.

    "It is impossible to understand how all these processes interact with each other to 100-percent certainty," Klotzbach said in a report published on Tuesday, which looked at vertical wind sheer, sea surface temperatures and other elements that affect the formation of hurricanes.

    Last year also had been quieter than initially feared, in sharp contrast with the record-setting 2005 Atlantic hurricane season when Katrina devastated New Orleans and part of the US Gulf coast.

    "The seasonal hurricane forecasters certainly have a lot of explaining to do," said Max Mayfield, former director of the National Hurricane Center.

    "The last couple of years have humbled the seasonal hurricane forecasters and pointed out that we have a lot more to learn before we can do accurate seasonal forecasts," he told The Miami Herald.

    While there were fewer hurricanes than initially anticipated this year, two of those that formed in the Caribbean hit land with rare fury, packing maximum sustained winds of more than 249 kilometers (155 miles) per hour. That marked the first time on record that two Atlantic hurricanes made landfall at the topmost category five on the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale.

    In August, Hurricane Dean killed at least 29 people in a rampage through the Caribbean and Mexico. The following month, Hurricane Felix killed about 150 people and wrought a trail of devastation along Nicaragua's impoverished Caribbean coast.



    Hurricane forecasters see no tropical activity

    Published on November 27, 2007 11:57 AM | Comments

    Well despite the forecasts and the media's help in scaring the hell out of everyone, we just passed another rather mild season (not to discount at all the death and destruction that did occur this year):

    "In the final week of the hurricane season, forecasters say the waters around Florida are clear of disturbances.

    No tropical weather is expected today and at least through Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center in Miami reported late Monday.

    The weather center in South Florida has been watching the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico since early May, when the first sub-tropical storm was identified and named. That was Andrea.

    If no tropical storm develops, the 2007 season will be the second straight without significant hurricane threats to Florida - following two seasons of almost constant threats."

    The season officially ends on November 30th, and while it is still possible for storms to crop up, the tropics have been so quiet that it does seem rather unlikely that another major event will occur this year.



    Sad news in the world of Hurricanes

    Published on November 27, 2007 11:53 AM | Comments

    Herbert Saffir, co-creator of the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, has died:

    "Herbert Saffir visited the Mississippi Coast after Hurricane Katrina at the invitation of Gulfport attorney Joe Sam Owen, who represents policyholders in their lawsuits against insurance companies.

    Saffir, who lived and worked in Coral Gables, Fla., later talked to the Sun Herald about his post-Katrina visit and his desire to return.

    "I'm anxious to go up and see what has been done and see if they're following some of the lessons that they should have learned after Camille. I hate to sound like that, but I think Camille's lessons were wasted, on the Gulf Coast anyway," Saffir said.

    "They should have adopted tougher building codes after that. Another point is you have to have rigid enforcement of the codes. You can adopt and write a beautiful building code with all kinds of storm requirements in it. But if you don't have inspection and enforcement of the code, it's wasted."

    Sadly, Saffir never got the chance to come back. Owen was trying to schedule a visit for January, but the 90-year-old who originated the Saffir-Simpson scale died Wednesday."



    Tropical depression forms near Haiti

    Published on October 28, 2007 9:59 AM | Comments

    From the AP:

    art.tropicaldepression.accu.jpgMIAMI, Florida (AP) -- A tropical depression moved northwest across the Caribbean on Sunday, prompting storm warnings in Haiti and watches in Cuba and Jamaica, where it could bring more than 10 inches of rain, forecasters said.

    The depression, the 16th of the Atlantic hurricane system, could strengthen into a tropical storm late Sunday, when it would be named 'Noel,' according to the National Hurricane Center.

    A tropical storm warning was in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border westward to Port-au-Prince, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 24 hours.

    The governments of Jamaica and Cuba issued tropical storm watches in their countries.



    NHC watches tropical activity in northwest Caribbean

    Published on October 9, 2007 8:29 AM | Comments

    Reuters is reporting:

    NEW YORK (Reuters) - An area of low pressure centered between Belize and the Cayman Islands in the northwest Caribbean Sea became less organized on Monday, but the U.S. National Hurricane Center said further development of the system was still possible during the next couple of days.

    An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft, previously scheduled to investigate the system later Monday, was now expected to look at the system on Tuesday if necessary, the NHC said in a tropical weather update.

    Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicated that low-level circulation was broad and not well-defined.



    Westerlies tearing apart potential hurricanes

    Published on October 1, 2007 10:15 AM | Comments

    From the Sun-Sentinel.com:

    Not that anyone's complaining, but so far this hurricane season hasn't been nearly as intense as it could have been largely because of strong upper-level winds.

    Called Westerlies, these winds have sheared apart a number of systems and prevented others from becoming full-blown hurricanes. Among them: Tropical Storms Chantal, Gabrielle, Ingrid and Karen.

    Indeed, the winds have been so swift and persistent that it's almost as though El Nio has returned. That atmospheric condition, created by a warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, shreds storms with tenacious winds. It helped make the 2006 season relatively calm.



    Caribbean Tropical Weather Update

    Published on September 25, 2007 8:58 AM | Comments

    There is a lot of tropical weather news out there, but the systems are all outside of the Caribbean and not forecast to threaten the region. Tropical Storm Jerry is far out to sea in the northern Atlantic, and Tropical Storm Karen, while closer to the Caribbean basin, is forecast on a track to remain well wide of the islands.

    If you are interested in more information on these storms visit the National Hurricane Center website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.



    Tropical Depression 5

    Published on August 15, 2007 3:23 AM | Comments

    We also have TD 5 in the Gulf of Mexico now. We don't monitor non-Caribbean storms too closely but we will be providing links and info for this storm should it make it to Tropical Storm status.

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007 100 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

    ...LITTLE CHANGE IN DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
    FREEPORT SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO
    SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
    STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
    WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
    WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST OR ABOUT
    390 MILES...630 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT
    410 MILES...665 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
    KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE
    CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOWER OR MIDDLE
    TEXAS COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
    THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR
    TO MAKING LANDFALL.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

    TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
    MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...24.3 N...91.3 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    400 AM CDT.



    Little change in TD 4

    Published on August 14, 2007 6:18 AM | Comments

    Good Tuesday morning to you all - we are signing up folks for our email alerts at a record pace and I hope you are finding them useful. TD 4 was little changed according to the NHC's latest update issued at 5 AM EST. It is moving towards the west at about 21 MPH. The NHC still thinks it could become a tropical storm sometime this afternoon, and will most likely be Dean. The graphics as of this morning have it headed pretty much straight for the Antigua/St. Martin/Anguilla area by about 2 AM Sunday. Of course this could change dramatically in the next couple of days, but it seems that the Leeward islands need to start paying close attention. The next advisory is out at 11 AM EST

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 AM AST TUE AUG 14 2007

    ...LITTLE CHANGE IN DEPRESSION OVER FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

    AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.8 WEST OR ABOUT 855
    MILES...1375 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
    ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1660 MILES...2670 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
    ANTILLES.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH AND THIS
    GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
    THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...12.0 N...36.8 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

    http://www.caribbean-on-line.com/hurricanes/images/084023W_sm-1-thumb.gif


    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

    Published on August 14, 2007 3:05 AM | Comments

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

    THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CERTAINLY NOT IMPROVED THIS
    EVENING. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
    ELONGATED EAST TO WEST AS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY
    STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS. A QUIKSCAT PASS DURING THE
    AFTERNOON CAUGHT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND IT
    SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT. THE LATEST
    DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE ALSO SUPPORT 30 KT AND THE
    CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.

    THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY WESTWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/17. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFDL AND HWRF REMAIN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...SHOWING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.

    THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
    PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR
    WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO
    GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
    REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
    FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 14/0300Z 12.0N 35.0W 30 KT
    12HR VT 14/1200Z 12.0N 37.4W 35 KT
    24HR VT 15/0000Z 12.0N 40.4W 40 KT
    36HR VT 15/1200Z 12.2N 43.4W 45 KT
    48HR VT 16/0000Z 12.6N 46.4W 50 KT
    72HR VT 17/0000Z 13.8N 52.0W 60 KT
    96HR VT 18/0000Z 16.0N 57.5W 75 KT
    120HR VT 19/0000Z 18.5N 62.5W 90 KT



    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3

    Published on August 14, 2007 3:00 AM | Comments

    As of 11 PM EST this storm is still a tropical depression - there was some discussion that it would be a tropical storm by now but it is not organizing that quickly at the moment:

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM AST MON AUG 13 2007

    ...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION...

    AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.0 WEST OR ABOUT 740
    MILES...1190 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
    ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1780 MILES...2865 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
    ANTILLES.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION
    IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
    AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...35.0 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

    Next update is 5 AM EST.



    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2

    Published on August 13, 2007 5:23 PM | Comments

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

    ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES RACING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
    ATLANTIC...

    AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.1 WEST OR ABOUT 620
    MILES...995 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
    ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1900 MILES...3060 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
    ANTILLES.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...AND
    THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
    HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
    BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...11.9 N...33.1 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    1100 PM EDT.



    Good radar image of the Atlantic

    Published on August 13, 2007 4:27 PM | Comments

    AccuWeather has a good animated radar of the whole Atlantic, so you can see this thing (TD 4) as it is coming across. Click the image below for the animated one from AccuWeather.

    isehatl.jpg



    Tropical Depression 4

    Published on August 13, 2007 2:28 PM | Comments

    Well the media is already making a big deal out of this one - even though it is days away from being a definitive threat:

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

    ...FOURTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN
    ATLANTIC...

    AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 520
    MILES...840 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
    ISLANDS AND ABOUT 2000 MILES...3220 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
    ANTILLES.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...AND THIS
    GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
    BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...12.0 N...31.6 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    500 PM EDT.

    We will be keeping a close eye on it and will keep you up to date as best we can.

    http://www.caribbean-on-line.com/hurricanes/images/145027W_sm-thumb.gif


    Tropical storm gathers strength in Atlantic

    Published on August 13, 2007 5:07 AM | Comments

    McClatchy Newspapers is reporting:

    The first potentially significant tropical system of the season is gathering strength in the distant Atlantic and could develop into the years first hurricane this week.

    Likely to become a tropical depression Monday, the system is an immense distance from land 2,200 miles from the outermost Caribbean islands and poses no immediate danger to anyone.

    Still, the disturbance is the first noteworthy system to be born this year in what forecasters call the deep tropics, where conditions are growing ripe for development and storms have plenty of time to strengthen before they reach land.

    Similar systems are lining up behind it, ready to roll off Africa and into the Atlantic, suggesting that a worrisome few weeks are ahead for residents of the hurricane zone.

    Its a reminder that this is the time of year for things to form out there, and if youre not ready for hurricane season, now is the time to get ready, said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County.

    Last week, government scientists predicted that the season which started June 1 and ends Nov. 30 soon would heat up and become unusually active.

    Long-range computerized models suggest that, as the week progresses, the first of these systems will strengthen and march across the Atlantic toward the Caribbean islands, though such forecasts are subject to wide margins of error.

    This really isn't a storm yet - that headline is a bit alarmist. The NHC is calling it a "special feature" at present, it is going to take several days to see what this thing turns into.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURE...

    A 1006 MB LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 26W/27W S
    OF 18N...IS LOCATED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12N MOVING
    W 15 KT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE E OF THE CONVECTION.
    SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
    29W-33W.



    High pressure keeping the tropics quiet - for now

    Published on August 10, 2007 5:30 AM | Comments

    Still not much going on as the season progresses. Not to say that can't change come September (see chart below):

    "...high pressure is holding sway over the Atlantic breeding grounds where tropical storms are formed. That's why there's nothing scary on the horizon and why none of the reliable computer models forecast any tropical development over the next seven days."
    hurricane-frequency.jpg


    Tropical Depression in Caribbean less likely

    Published on August 3, 2007 12:59 PM | Comments

    Looks like this area of weather is just not going to develop into anything major:

    NEW YORK, Aug 2 (Reuters) - A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean now appears less likely than previously to become a tropical depression or cyclone, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Thursday.

    In an outlook issued at 10:30 p.m. EDT (0230 GMT Friday), the NHC said, "Satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with the tropical wave has decreased during the past few hours. This suggests that the system is not developing at this time and the potential for tropical depression formation has diminished."

    "The tropical wave is expected to move rapidly westward bringing cloudiness and showers to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Central America during the next couple of days," it said."

    The recent imagery does show it as mostly blown apart.



    Possible system forming

    Published on August 2, 2007 5:56 PM | Comments

    The NHC is still acting like this isn't going to turn into much - but the latest update does make it sound like it has become a bit more organized:

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE E CARIB IS MOVING WWD NEAR 20 KT. A SATELLITE LOOP BEGINNING AT 00Z TODAY SHOWS CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 64W-70W. WHILE CONVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE IT REMAINS CHALLENGING TO FIND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.

    It certainly looks like something in the latest images - but the upper level winds seem to be creating a shearing effect that could hamper development.

    http://www.caribbean-on-line.com/hurricanes/images/HUIR.JPG-thumb.jpg

    If it does develop, it may impact the western half of the Caribbean islands, especially Jamaica and Cuba. Keep an eye on this one if you have travel plans to the region - and don't forget about travel insurance!



    Tropical depression may form in Atlantic

    Published on August 1, 2007 12:25 PM | Comments

    The NHC is putting out news on a possible tropical depression:

    In an 11:30 a.m. EDT outlook, the NHC said the system, associated with a tropical wave, has become a little better organized. It said an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft was scheduled to investigate the area this afternoon.

    "Environmental conditions do not appear especially favorable for development," the NHC said, but it added that "there is still potential for this system to become a tropical depression during the next day or two" as it moves westward at close to 15 to 20 miles per hour.

    Separately, the NHC said another large area of cloudiness and showers developed over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico in association with an old frontal zone. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next day or two as it remains nearly stationary.

    The NHC will name the next tropical storm Dean.

    More here from Reuters.



    Hurricane Forecasters Update Predictions

    Published on July 27, 2007 10:35 AM | Comments

    Local Florida television station reporting:

    With the peak of hurricane season now just weeks away, some forecasters are backing off on their prediction for an above average season.

    WSI Corporation, a private forecasting firm has adjusted its outlook, lowering the predicted number of named storms from 15 to 14.

    WSI also now predicts six of those storms will become hurricanes. Their earlier forecast had eight.

    A meteorologist with the company says ocean temperatures are cooler than expected in the tropical Atlantic region, which forced the re-evaluation of their numbers.

    Not really much of a dialing back, but I guess some of these private weather firms are trying to cover their tracks a bit since the season has been so quiet up to now. Maybe they will come out looking a little better than the government sources in the end - but you never know with the weather.



    Worst of Atlantic hurricane season still to come

    Published on July 26, 2007 8:09 AM | Comments

    Despite the quiet out there and the scaling back by some forecasters, USAToday still manages to go with the scary headline "Worst of Atlantic hurricane season still to come":

    MIAMI Nearly eight weeks have passed since the last tropical storm in the Atlantic-Caribbean region faded away, but banish any notion the 2007 hurricane season has been unusually slow and beware the coming months, experts say. The peak of the six-month season is just around the corner and forecasters are still predicting a busy one.

    "There's absolutely nothing out of the ordinary," Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said of the Atlantic season's first two months. "It's not slow. It's not fast."

    On average, June and July produce zero to two named storms or hurricanes. So far this year there have been two. Andrea formed in early May, Barry on June 1.

    There's plenty of evidence the first two months are meaningless as an indicator for the rest of the season.



    No hurricanes forming despite ripe conditions

    Published on July 14, 2007 10:31 AM | Comments

    That is a great headline for Caribbean residents and travelers, but it seems that everyone is so afraid of significant storms from the constant media drumbeat hyping the hurricane season that travel to the region during this time of year is very slow. More from Florida Today:

    Hurricanes love warmer water and moist air, and both are present these days in and over the Atlantic Ocean.

    But no weather systems are biting at those ripe conditions.

    "There are a couple of tropical waves out there, but nothing of significance," Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said Friday.

    The Atlantic typically warms and the air over it moistens during mid- to late summer, which can spark tropical storm activity.



    Tropics remain peaceful

    Published on July 12, 2007 11:10 AM | Comments

    There have been a few weak tropical waves coming across the Atlantic but overall it is very quiet on the tropical weather front. People are actually starting to dial back their storm predictions for 2007. Here is a little more from a Louisiana newspaper:

    There is no threatening weather in the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico and not one of the computer models foresees the hint of a tropical storm over the coming week.

    But there's plenty of time to go in this hurricane season.

    We've been expecting storms early and often over the last several years, but, on average over the long term, the first storm to reach hurricane strength appears on Aug. 14, the second on Aug. 30 and the third on Sept. 9.

    There are a few tropical waves out in the Atlantic this morning and they will continue to roll out of Africa in the coming weeks, but there is nothing that is too threatening in the immediate forecast.



    Tropical wave organizing

    Published on July 5, 2007 8:30 PM | Comments

    It is a way off but I guess everyone is watching very closely:

    Hurricane forecasters in Miami now say a tropical wave way out in the Atlantic has organized, and further development is possible. At 11:30 a.m., the National Hurricane Center issued an advisory saying the low pressure area is, for the first time, associated with a tropical wave and "has become a little better organized" today.

    If the area of showers takes on the properties of a tropical storm - a big "if," forecasters say - it would become the third named storm of the 2007 hurricane season, Chantal.

    This season, subtropical storm Andrea formed in early May and Tropical Storm Barry swirled to life in early June. Neither amounted to much.

    The area that forecasters are now watching is about 1500 miles east of the Southern Windward Islands. In other words, between Africa and South America.

    More here.



    Tropics still quiet

    Published on June 29, 2007 9:36 AM | Comments

    Good news for Caribbean travelers and residents from the NHC:

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
    THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA
    LOCATED JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
    ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS
    FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COULD
    PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND
    FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.



    Tropics remain quiet

    Published on June 26, 2007 8:24 AM | Comments

    Not much is happening in the tropics, so now after all the hype we are starting to see some news reports wondering if the forecasters are wrong (again - like they were last year). It is a very peculiar thing - everyone should be happy about the lack of potentially life threatening weather... not trying to cheer it on. The Palm Beach Post has a pretty good section for hurricanes, satellite images, links, etc. - here is a recent article:

    Since then: zip, zero, nada. A three-week drought of storms.

    So, what's it all mean? Put up the shutters now or start drinking those gallon jugs of water? And what does El Nio have to do with it?

    "Early-season storms have little or nothing to do with peak-of-season activity," said Richard Knapp, a senior forecaster at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

    "Often we've had one June storm and we've had a strong peak season. And we've had Junes without a storm when the peak of the season hasn't been as strong," he said.



    Tropics remain relatively quiet

    Published on June 18, 2007 6:11 AM | Comments

    Everyone seems to be on edge for this monster storm season to kick in (fueled no doubt by the never ending media accounts of an active season), but the tropics remain quiet:

    MIAMI -- Tropical storm forecasters report late Sunday that there are no storm precursors lurking, and none is expected to to pop up at least through Monday. "Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours," the National Hurricane Center reported at 5:30 p.m.

    The Miami center watches the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico during hurricane season from June through November.

    So far, this season has been quiet, although forecasters predict an active season of storms affecting the U.S. Two of the last three seasons have seen Florida hit hard by multiple tropical storms and hurricanes.

    September is historically the time for more and severe storms so it is not unusual at all to see relatively calm weather now - but the current conditions are good news for the Caribbean islands and we hope it stays this way.



    Hurricane hunter might check system

    Published on June 15, 2007 7:17 AM | Comments

    From Florida Today:

    A large area of low pressure near Cuba might be investigated today by a hurricane hunter aircraft to check for signs of tropical development.

    The system is expected to affect Florida this weekend as the low drifts northward over the Gulf of Mexico.

    "Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development, but may become more favorable during the next 48 hours as the system drifts toward the northwest," forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami said today.

    This doesn't look like a very big deal at this point, and if it were to develop it wouldn't affect the Caribbean.



    Hurricane forecasters are watching tropical wave off Cape Verde

    Published on June 11, 2007 5:30 AM | Comments

    Things are relatively quiet out there. The Bradenton Herald notes the following:

    MANATEE -- The waters around Florida are quiet today, but hurricane forecasters report this afternoon say they are watching a large tropical wave for development well out in the Atlantic Ocean. This tropical wave is located about 375 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph. But, "shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the wave has decreased," the National Weather Service reported at noon.

    Because of this, development of the wave into a tropical storm "is becoming less likely," say the forecasters in Miami.

    Other than the wave, the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico appear to be clear of tropical storm precursors over the next two days.



    Tropical disturbances

    Published on May 31, 2007 12:30 PM | Comments

    There are suddenly two storms active in the Eastern Pacific (Alvin and Barbara), but they do not seem to be any threat to the Caribbean at the moment. The NHC has just issued a SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT for some weather that may affect Cuba and Florida however:

    SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    1150 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
    SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED
    WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST
    OF COZUMEL MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
    TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE LOW IS EXPECTED
    TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
    ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS
    A NON-TROPICAL LOW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
    BRING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE
    NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
    WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

    ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
    FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS
    HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.



    How Good Are Hurricane Forecasts?

    Published on May 25, 2007 7:49 AM | Comments

    Slate asks "How Good Are Hurricane Forecasts?" The answer seems to be - not so bad, but last year stunk:

    "Not bad at all. In general, the predictions fall within a storm or two of the observed totals. Last season, though, the forecasters had a bad year. 2004's six intense hurricanes doubled most predictions. The seasonal total of nine hurricanes was also significantly higher than expected. Forecasters blamed the poor predictions on a "year [that] did not behave like any other year we have studied."


    NOAA PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL 2007 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

    Published on May 22, 2007 12:38 PM | Comments

    From the NOAA - full article, with graphics, is here: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2864.htm

    http://www.caribbean-on-line.com/hurricanes/images/hurricane-season-2007-outlook-thumb.jpg
    May 22, 2007 Experts at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are projecting a 75 percent chance that the Atlantic Hurricane Season will be above normal this yearshowing the ongoing active hurricane era remains strong. With the start of the hurricane season upon us, NOAA recommends those in hurricane-prone regions to begin their preparation plans. (Click NOAA image for larger view of NOAAs 2007 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. Please credit NOAA.)

    "For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13 to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.

    Climate patterns responsible for the expected above normal 2007 hurricane activity continue to be the ongoing multi-decadal signal (the set of ocean and atmospheric conditions that spawn increased Atlantic hurricane activity), warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the El Nio/La Nia cycle.

    Last year, seasonal hurricane predictions proved to be too high when an unexpected El Nio rapidly developed and created a hostile environment for Atlantic storms to form and strengthen. When storms did develop, steering currents kept most of them over the open water and away from land.

    "There is some uncertainty this year as to whether or not La Nia will form, and if it does how strong it will be," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. "The Climate Prediction Center is indicating that La Nia could form in the next one to three months. If La Nia develops, storm activity will likely be in the upper end of the predicted range, or perhaps even higher depending on how strong La Nia becomes. Even if La Nia does not develop, the conditions associated with the ongoing active hurricane era still favor an above-normal season."

    Bell also noted that pre-season storms, such as Subtropical Storm Andrea in early May, are not an indicator of the hurricane season ahead. "With or without Andrea, NOAA's forecast is for an above normal season."



    Caribbean's off-season rates worth risk of hurricane

    Published on May 21, 2007 5:03 AM | Comments

    Article from the Miami Herald, includes the following:

    Hurricane season is the time to be spontaneous. Book your vacation the week before you leave, and if there are no hurricanes on the weather map, you can be sure you won't experience one.

    Make reservations directly with the hotel. Hotels, not Internet agencies, are more likely to negotiate with you in hopes you'll postpone rather than just cancel your trip. Good luck trying to get a real person on the phone who will help with immediate problems at an Internet agency.

    Use a travel agent for cruises, flights and hotels. You will have someone working on your behalf, and they can often arrange what you can't. They can offer immediate assistance and help with alternatives. I was in the Caribbean and had two flights canceled when Miami International Airport closed because of Hurricane Ivan. The travel agent called my hotel with alternative flights and made sure there were no additional fees. If using a travel agent costs $20 more, pay the $20 for peace of mind.

    Use a credit card. In theory, you can't be charged for something you don't receive, such as a hotel room. But this, too, can be tricky when you're trying to get a refund on your non-refundable deposit because you say a hurricane was coming but the hotel said the weather was beautiful. At least, though, you have the credit card company to speak for you.

    Buy travel insurance. Insurance offers some peace of mind, but read the fine print, preferably with Nancy Grace, before you buy. Travel agents can suggest a variety of companies such as Access America, HTH Worldwide, Travelex Insurance Services, TravelGuard and CSA Travel Protection.




    New computer model gives hope for forecasting hurricane intensity

    Published on May 16, 2007 11:45 AM | Comments

    From the AP:

    MIAMI -- Meteorologists have spent decades drastically improving predictions on where a looming hurricane could hit - warnings that potentially drive millions of people from their homes. Now, they aim to better determine how powerful those storms actually will be. Forecasters are debuting their new Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model next month which, for the first time, will take into account most data from within the storm and use it in real time to better determine its strength.

    "The processes at the inner core are not well informed and not well predicted," senior hurricane specialist Richard Pasch said at the National Hurricane Center. "With the HWRF, we're hoping that we can analyze that middle core."

    Until now, experts have mostly relied on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model which, like those before it, mainly depended on initial storm information paired with historical data for similar storms. The higher-resolution new model will consider conditions over the oceans that have never been plugged into models before.

    It could take years, and some tinkering, for the new model to realize its full potential. But forecasters hope the result will be a greater understanding of storms like hurricanes Charley and Wilma, which grew substantially stronger in a matter of hours. Wilma went from being a tropical storm to the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record in a day.

    The hope is that the model will better predict the strength of a hurricane when it eventually makes landfall and ultimately save lives.

    The National Hurricane Center has cut its average forecast error on storm tracks in half over the past 15 years. Average track errors last year were about 55 miles on one-day forecasts, about 111 miles on two-day predictions and 169 miles on three days' ahead.

    In the same period, two-day forecasts for the intensity of all tropical cyclones improved from an average of about 18 mph to about 17 mph.

    "We've made those improvements in track but we've made little improvement in forecasting intensity," Pasch said. "It was what the science allows. We understand more about hurricane track than intensity."

    With the HWRF, that should change. Information from hurricane hunter aircraft, satellites and other sources will immediately relay wind conditions in and around the storm, temperature, pressure, humidity and other oceanic and atmospheric conditions and analyze them to better determine the track and intensity.

    Naomi Surgi, who coordinates the hurricane modeling program at the National Center for Climate Prediction in Camp Springs, Md., said using real-time data provides the most accurate forecasts.

    "You have to with as much accuracy as possible describe what that hurricane is doing now," she said, adding HWRF shows great promise. "It's getting the storm right, it's getting the ocean underneath the storm right, it's getting the environment around the storm right."

    The HWRF has been in development since 2001. Surgi said while improvements will begin the day after it goes operational next month, the model is expected to be used for the next 10 to 15 years.

    The hurricane center's new director, Bill Proenza, has warned there is at least one major threat to forecasters' accuracy. The QuikScat weather satellite, designed to last five years, is in its seventh year of operation, and it is only a matter of time until it fails. The device gives forecasters basic storm information like wind speed and Proenza has said he is unaware of any plans to allocate an estimated $400 million to replace it.

    That aside, even with the expected improvements the HWRF could bring, Surgi said meteorologists still concede they will never deliver error-free hurricane forecasts.

    "We have stopped thinking in terms of 100 percent accuracy," she said, "because I don't think it will ever be realistic to expect that."



    USAID Prepares for 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season in Latin America and the Caribbean

    Published on May 16, 2007 6:05 AM | Comments

    May 14, 2007 Press Office: 202-712-4320 Public Information: 202-712-4810 www.usaid.gov

    Miami, FL - The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) held a press conference concerning hurricane preparation for the 2007 season. Senior officials Greg Gotlieb, Tim Callaghan and Rene Carrillo were on-hand to provide an update on USAID's on-going preparations and disaster response capabilities.

    In 2006, none of the storms that made landfall caused damage requiring USAID humanitarian assistance, however, in 2005 USAID responded to the effects of five hurricanes and one tropical storm in 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries and provided life-saving humanitarian relief to disaster affected communities. The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service forecasts for the coming season, June 1 - November 30, indicate that above-average tropical activity is expected.

    In response, comprehensive preparations by USAID's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) include contingencies for emergencies, direct-action responses, and risk-management training programs for disaster response officials in Latin American and Caribbean countries. Also, a team of USAID advisors based in the San Jose, Costa Rica regional office remains available for immediate deployment throughout the region.

    USAID manages a wide network of Latin American and Caribbean-based field staff who serve as direct links to the countries in the hemisphere, increasing the Agency's ability to prepare for and quickly respond to natural disasters.

    If the scope of a disaster merits a robust response, a USAID Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) may be deployed to provide life-saving emergency humanitarian assistance, including short-term disaster relief items and assistance with humanitarian coordination. Relief commodities such as medical supplies, hygiene kits, plastic sheeting, water containers, and blankets are stockpiled in Miami for quick disbursement to affected countries.

    In the event of an impending disaster such as a powerful hurricane, USAID may pre-position personnel and relief supplies in order to provide immediate assistance and conduct humanitarian assessments, which are crucial in providing policymakers with the means to respond appropriately to identify needs.

    In order to help local and national authorities develop the capabilities needed to respond to natural disasters and to promote their self-sufficiency, USAID offers a year-round Regional Disaster Assistance Program (RDAP) to countries in the region. The course provides instruction in disaster management concepts, training methods, and technical disciplines such as search and rescue and shelter coordination. Participants gain the knowledge and skills required to replicate the training program. Since RDAP was established in 1989, nearly 43,000 people have been trained and more than 4,200 participants certified as active instructors, many of whom have gone on to conduct training in their own countries using their own resources.

    For more information on USAID's disaster assistance programs, please visit: www.usaid.gov/our_work/humanitarian_assistance/disaster_assistance/.



    Air Force's WC-130 crews hunt Atlantic coast hurricanes

    Published on May 11, 2007 4:59 PM | Comments

    From the U.S. Airforce:

    5/11/2007 - KEESLER AIR FORCE BASE, Miss. (AFNEWS) -- Although the 2007 Atlantic Ocean hurricane season officially starts June 1, Keesler Air Force Base's Hurricane Hunters got off to an early start.

    Flying a specially equipped WC-130 Hercules, Airmen from the Air Force Reserve Command's 403rd Wing tracked their first tropical disturbance May 9 off the coast of Georgia.

    Timing of the mission was reminiscent of the early start of the 2005 record-breaking-hurricane season which stirred up May 20 with Tropical Storm Adrian.

    The state-of-the-art WC-130J equipped with a Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer measures surface winds directly below the aircraft.

    "The SFMR will be the biggest advance I can think of to improve hurricane intensity forecasts," said Max Mayfield, the former director of the National Hurricane Center.

    Data collected by the Hurricane Hunters resulted in the National Hurricane Center naming the storm Subtropical Storm Andrea.

    Andrea's minimum central pressure was at 29.62 inches, moving west at 3 mph with sustained winds at 45 mph extending outward up to 115 miles.

    The radiometer can also determine rainfall rates within a storm system. This information in addition to wind speeds at flight level provides structural detail of the storm.

    Information collected by the Hurricane Hunters increase the accuracy of the National Hurricane Center's forecasts by as much as 30 percent. This data enables the National Hurricane Center to predict more accurately the path of storms in order to save lives and narrow areas of evacuation, center forecasters said. They expect the accuracy of their forecasts to increase with the use of the SFMR.

    Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be equipped with the radiometers by the end of June with one added each month until all of the 403rd Wing's 10 WC-130J aircraft are outfitted with the SFMR pod.



    Bastardi!

    Published on May 10, 2007 7:22 AM | Comments

    My favorite crazy weatherman, Joe Bastardi of Accuweather, says it is going to be rough on Florida this year:

    cone_sm.jpg"The highest area of risk has swung southwest from the Atlantic to Florida and the eastern and central Gulf Coast regions. In past years that exhibited the same climatological patterns we expect this season, these areas were the main target of Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms"


    Andrea rare May tropical storm

    Published on May 10, 2007 7:14 AM | Comments

    The Palm Beach Post is reporting:

    Three weeks before hurricane guides appear in local grocery stores, Subtropical Storm Andrea swirled off the North Florida coast Wednesday, a reminder that Mother Nature is in charge here.

    The first named May storm in more than a quarter-century, Andrea isn't expected to strengthen much beyond its current 45 mph winds and may not even strike land, National Hurricane Center forecasters said.



    Hurricane Center To Investigate Possible Storm

    Published on May 9, 2007 9:47 AM | Comments

    The National Hurricane Center will investigate a possible subtropical storm off the Florida coastline on Wednesday. The system has been moving southwestward since the beginning of the workweek and could become the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, WESH 2 News reported. It began as a big winter storm, but officials want to make sure it isn't becoming more tropical in nature.
    More here.

    Experts agree 2007 to be active hurricane season

    Published on May 9, 2007 8:43 AM | Comments

    Well the AP has a story out today expecting an active hurricane season. Don't forget, they said the same thing last year, and it was a yawner. All we know for sure right now is that Hurricane Season is about 3 weeks away - June 1 is the official start date. We are going to be dusting up around here, adding articles, checking links, etc. from now until then. The article is below the fold...

    Experts agree 2007 to be active hurricane season

    5/8/2007, 8:58 p.m. CDT
    By JOE STINEBAKER
    The Associated Press
    HOUSTON (AP) Two national hurricane experts said Tuesday that they expect 2007 to be an especially active season, producing up to 17 tropical storms and hurricanes and a "well above average" possibility of at least one striking the United States.

    Philip Klotzbach, a research associate at Colorado State University, and Joe Bastardi, the chief hurricane forecaster for AccuWeather Inc., acknowledged that similar predictions for the 2006 season were wrong but cited a more active storm cycle this year.

    Klotzbach and Bastardi were addressing the Second Annual AccuWeather Hurricane Summit, a gathering of more than 100 weather experts and academics to discuss the coming season with members of the energy industry, whose business can be severely affected by storms.

    "We didn't predict very well last year," Klotzbach said, noting that 2006 turned out to be an average year with 10 tropical storms and five hurricanes. None made landfall, he said, the first time since 2001 that has happened.
    Klotzbach and his renowned colleague at Colorado State, Professor William Gray, issued their annual predictions April 3, forecasting a "very active" season with 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes and five "intense" hurricanes.

    Klotzbach said there is a 74 percent chance of a major hurricane striking the United States, with a 49 percent chance it will hit along the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville. Storms reaching Category 3 or greater on the hurricane scale are considered major, with winds up to 130 mph.

    Gray and Klotzbach revise their forecast periodically as the nation moves further into the summer hurricane season. The next update is scheduled May 31.

    Although Bastardi predicts fewer storms than his counterparts, he agreed 2007 would be more active than usual. Bastardi, who said the nation is in "a very, very volatile" weather period, said he expects 13 or 14 named storms, six or seven of which will strike the U.S. coast. Bastardi said the Texas Gulf coast is twice as likely to be hit as in an average year and Florida appears four times as likely.

    "We are living in a time of climatic hardship," Bastardi said. "We're in a cycle where weather extremes are more the norm and not the exception."

    Klotzbach acknowledged forecasts made earlier in the hurricane season, such as those in June or July, are less reliable than those in August or later, when the more serious storm season begins.

    Bastardi, who forecasts for the world's largest private weather service, said he fears climatic conditions could lead to storms that intensify relatively late in their life when they are closer to landfall.

    Gray, a professor of atmospheric science and the nation's best-known hurricane forecaster, focused on what he called the "grossly exaggerated" claims that increased carbon dioxide emissions were leading to global warming and indirectly to more hurricane activity.

    "Yes, we've had some global warming, but it's mostly natural," Gray said. "This is not a crisis for us. Even if it was, there's nothing we could do about it."

    Gray said a pervasive influence of political correctness had led many weather experts to refrain from criticizing the science of global warming and noted that many experts in the mid-1970s believed the planet was cooling.

    He predicted that the "30-year global warming trend" would end in the next five to 10 years and that global mean temperatures in 20 years will be lower than today.

    "Hurricanes are not significantly impacted by carbon dioxide increases or by global surface temperature rises," he said.



    2007 Hurricane Names

    Published on May 1, 2007 5:35 PM | Comments

    Here is the list of Hurricane names for 2007 from the National Weather Center:

    • Andrea
    • Barry
    • Chantal
    • Dean
    • Erin
    • Felix
    • Gabrielle
    • Humberto
    • Ingrid
    • Jerry
    • Karen
    • Lorenzo
    • Melissa
    • Noel
    • Olga
    • Pablo
    • Rebekah
    • Sebastien
    • Tanya
    • Van
    • Wendy



    Hurricane Season 2006 is over!

    Published on November 15, 2006 9:30 AM | Comments

    Well - that was a very quiet season, thankfully - for most everyone (except for hardcore hurricane junkies I guess). Yes, it may have been "boring" if you are a severe weather fan, but the Caribbean needs some quiet years - both to rebuild (Grenada, Cayman) and to give travelers some confidence back and make the off season months a little easier on all the people throughout the region who depend on tourism to make a living. The Pacific is still brewing up storms (see below), but with the end of the Atlantic season two weeks behind us already, that should be it on named storms in the Caribbean for 2006. We will continue posting anything relevant we come across in the "off" season.

    From Bloomberg:

    Tropical Storm Sergio May Become Hurricane Off Mexico

    Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Sergio grew stronger this morning off Mexico's Pacific Coast and may become the region's 10th hurricane of the season later today, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

    Sergio, the 19th named storm of the May-to-November Eastern Pacific hurricane season, churned the ocean 430 miles (692 km) south of Manzanillo with winds of 63 miles per hour (102 kilometers per hour), the Miami-based agency said. The storm has had little forward movement, said Alexio Avilla, senior hurricane specialist at the center.



    Tropical storm hits Mexico, U.S. tourist missing

    Published on October 25, 2006 6:12 AM | Comments

    We really only focus on the Atlantic and Caribbean storms on this site, but there is a storm in the Pacific right now, Paul. I really hate to see stories like this:

    LOS CABOS, Mexico (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Paul lashed Mexico's Baja California peninsula with rain and winds on Tuesday and high waves slamming into a beach resort washed away a U.S. tourist who is presumed dead.

    The military, police and civil protection workers began evacuating some 1,500 people from poorly built houses as the storm took aim at the Los Cabos resort, popular with foreign visitors for its golf courses, yachting and sports fishing.

    A large wave swept away a U.S. tourist from Washington state who was walking on the beach at Los Cabos. "He is considered missing. It would be very difficult for him to be found alive," said firefighter Gabriel Garcia.

    Paul faded to a tropical storm from a hurricane, with winds near 45 mph (75 kph).

    The storm was about 130 miles southwest of Los Cabos and was expected on Wednesday to sweep close by the resort, made up of the towns of Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo, before moving across the Sea of Cortez and hitting the mainland state of Sinaloa.

    Authorities shut the Cabos San Lucas port, frustrating sports fishermen who converged on the resort this week for a major competition involving up to 200 boats.

    "I hope we can fish tomorrow but we probably won't be able to. They don't want anybody getting thrown off their boats," said Dan Helzer, a retiree from California who was part of a fishing team on a boat called Black Gold.

    More here.



    Tropical depression forms in Atlantic

    Published on September 28, 2006 7:04 AM | Comments

    It has been a quiet season, thankfully. There is a new system in the Atlantic (from the AP):

    MIAMI The ninth tropical depression of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season formed Wednesday in the central Atlantic, but it was not expected to become a hurricane or threaten land, forecasters said.

    The storm was expected to strengthen and could become a tropical storm in the next day, the National Hurricane Center said.

    If the storm's winds reach 39 mph (63 kph) it would become Tropical Storm Isaac.

    At 5 p.m. EDT (0900 GMT), the depression's center was located about 810 miles (1,303 kilometers) east-southeast of Bermuda and moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22.5 kph), forecasters said. It had top sustained winds near 35 mph (56 kph).

    The Atlantic hurricane season began June 1 and ends Nov. 30. September is traditionally one of the busiest months of the season.




    NOAA studies hurricane formation

    Published on September 6, 2006 1:38 AM | Comments

    Interesting new article about hurricane formation:

    MIAMI - Researchers are working to find out how and why some easterly African waves develop into hurricanes and some do not as part of the Intensity Forecast Experiment, known as IFEX.

    This earliest stage of intensity change is just one aspect that hurricane researchers with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami are studying this summer.

    "Intensity change is NOAA's top tropical cyclone research priority as it is the most difficult component to forecast and can significantly alter how a community prepares for a landfalling storm," said Frank Marks, director of the NOAA Hurricane Research Division.

    More here.



    Tropical depression nears storm strength

    Published on September 5, 2006 9:15 AM | Comments

    From the AP:

    MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- A tropical depression brewing over the open Atlantic remains large but disorganized, forecasters said.

    "It's right on the cusp of becoming a [tropical] storm, but we don't anticipate significant strengthening," said Jamie Rhome, forecaster with the Miami-based National Hurricane Center.

    The sixth depression of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season had top sustained winds near 35 mph, according to the hurricane center. It would be named Florence if it reaches tropical storm strength with winds of at least 39 mph.

    At 5 a.m. ET, the depression was centered about 1,030 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and moving west-northwest near 13 mph, a path forecasters said was expected to continue for the next day.

    It comes on the heels of Tropical Storm Ernesto, which was briefly the season's first hurricane before hitting Florida and North Carolina last week as a tropical storm.



    Max Mayfield to retire as director of hurricane center

    Published on August 25, 2006 6:31 PM | Comments

    Big news today in the tropical weather community - Max Mayfield announced his surprise retirement. From the Miami Herald:

    Max Mayfield, whose calm voice but resolute manner guided South Floridians and millions of others through some of the worst hurricane seasons in history, will retire as director of the National Hurricane Center and intends to leave in January, he told his staff this afternoon.

    ''No one event has caused this,'' he told shocked forecasters during the usual afternoon ''map discussion'' to review conditions in the hurricane zone. "'I've been here 34 years and as Forrest Gump said in the movie, 'I'm tired and I want to go home.' ''

    The staff expected to hear only about Tropical Storm Debby and Tropical Depression 5, which is expected to grow into Tropical Storm Ernesto as it moves through the Caribbean.

    Along with that, they heard the bombshell announcement, which took less than a minute.

    ''My last day is going to be Jan. 3,'' he told his forecasters and support staff. "Let's give it everything we've got. Now, get back to work.''

    More here.



    Tropical Depression 5

    Published on August 25, 2006 9:41 AM | Comments

    This thing is starting to look serious and could definitely impact the Caribbean over the next week or so:

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 500 AM AST FRI AUG 25 2006

    ...DEPRESSION ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM...

    AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST OR ABOUT 345
    MILES...560 KM... SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND A MOTION
    GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
    SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
    THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
    TONIGHT.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SHIP OBSERVATIONS IS
    1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

    RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
    ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
    ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

    REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.4 N...65.7 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.



    Tropical Storm May Form Over Caribbean, Center Says

    Published on August 25, 2006 9:39 AM | Comments

    There is a new area of concern that the NHC has their eyes on:

    Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- A depression over the Caribbean Sea may strengthen later today into the fifth tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, U.S. forecasters said.

    Tropical Depression 5 was about 345 miles (560 kilometers) south of San Juan, Puerto Rico, shortly before 5 a.m. local time, according to an online advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami. The system's maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour were just 4 mph short of tropical-storm strength.

    "Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight,'' the center said. "The depression is moving toward the west near 20 mph and a motion generally toward the west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so.'' If it becomes a storm, it will be called Ernesto.

    More here from Bloomberg.com



    TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1

    Published on July 18, 2006 1:37 PM | Comments

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

    ...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OFF THE NORTH
    CAROLINA COAST...
    ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

    AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
    THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT
    NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 220
    MILES...355 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. A SLOW TURN
    TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER
    TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
    THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
    TONIGHT.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...32.5 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
    PM EDT.



    Tropical storm could form around Florida: NHC

    Published on July 5, 2006 4:30 PM | Comments

    Reuters is reporting the following:

    NEW YORK (Reuters) - A tropical storm could form around Florida over the next day or two, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Wednesday in an Atlantic tropical weather outlook at 5:30 a.m. EDT.

    The NHC said showers and thunderstorms were currently located over the Bahamas, central and eastern Cuba and southeastern Florida.

    Over the next couple of days, the system could drift slowly westward over the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico where several of the key U.S. oil and natural gas fields and refineries are located.

    The NHC said environmental conditions were unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation at this time but may become "somewhat more conducive for some slow development" during the next day or two.


    The Center will call the next storm Beryl.

    Elsewhere, the NHC did not expect any tropical storms to form through Thursday.



    Tropical storm threat dies in Atlantic

    Published on June 29, 2006 9:56 AM | Comments

    From the News-Press.com:

    The low pressure system off the Carolinas yesterday that prompted the National Hurricane Center to forecast a possible tropical storm has weakened and is no longer a threat, hurricane center forecasters report this morning.

    The low is expected to merge with a frontal system later today, forecasters said, and will likely cause heavy rains and gusty winds through the mid-Atlantic states and New England.



    SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

    Published on June 27, 2006 12:06 PM | Comments

    The NHC has put out a special statement this morning about the system currently off the Georgia coast. It is not a threat to the Caribbean but we will try to follow it and keep you posted.

    SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 730 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

    SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE
    SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH
    CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
    15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
    INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
    CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE.

    RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE
    REQUIRED WITH LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO
    A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
    LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
    ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.



    Hurricane Center: lows over Florida and far out in the Atlantic

    Published on June 26, 2006 11:28 AM | Comments

    From the HeraldToday.com:

    "MIAMI - The National Hurricane Center commented this morning on the low pressure and rain over Florida, and a low-pressure area 1,000 miles east of the Windward Island. But, the weather watchers said tropical storm formation is not expected in the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday.

    "A broad and diffuse area of low pressure extends over the Florida Peninsula. This system, coupled with an upper-level low over the northwestern Bahamas, is enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity," said a hurricane center advisory at 5:30 a.m.

    Gusty winds and continued heavy rain are possible for several days, the advisory said.

    Far out in the Atlantic toward Africa, "significant development...is not expected" from the low pressure area that is east-southeast of the Windward Islands.

    "Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Tuesday," the advisory said."

    Things have been quiet, which is great news for Caribbean residents and visitors.



    Best Caribbean options for hurricane season

    Published on June 18, 2006 5:16 AM | Comments

    From the Charlotte Observer:

    The safest bets

    Finding a dry Caribbean beach in hurricane season is always a gamble, but travelers can greatly sweeten their odds by choosing the right island.The safest bets: Aruba, Bonaire or Curacao, the so-called ABC islands, all located at the southernmost tip of the Lesser Antilles; Trinidad and Tobago, perched beyond the southern end of the Windward chain; and Margarita Island, just off the coast of Venezuela. Visit any of these islands in hurricane season, and you'll face only a 2 percent chance of encountering a serious storm, according to NOAA.

    One reason is that the islands' proximity to the equator prevents the wind conditions hurricanes require. Another is that most of the major storm systems, originating in Africa at about 10 degrees north of the equator, head to the northwest across the Atlantic and are usually at a higher latitude than these islands by the time they reach the Caribbean.

    And the islands most likely to be hit?

    You may want to think twice about heading to Grand Bahama Island in September, the stormiest month of the year in the Caribbean. By the Caribbean Hurricane Network's accounting, that piece of paradise has been hit by 40 hurricanes over the past 150 years, averaging one every four years. That makes it one of the most storm-prone islands and one of the riskiest to visit during hurricane season. Bermuda and the Virgin Islands also frequently affected by heavy storms and hurricanes, particularly in early September to mid-October.

    Weather experts are quick to point out that no island is totally hurricane-free.

    "The ABCs are not out of the Caribbean hurricane zone," noted Arthur Dania, director of the Curacao-based Meteorological Service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba. "We're at the southern fringe of the zone. Although storms are rare here, they can happen," he added. The last major hurricane to slap this region directly was on Sept. 23, 1877, before storms were given names.

    Travelers should also not rule out a summer or fall Caribbean cruise as too risky. Modern cruise ships are equipped with sophisticated storm-warning systems. And they have well-honed procedures in case a storm system gathers while the ship is at sea. They can also outrun hurricanes.



    TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 4

    Published on June 11, 2006 2:03 AM | Comments

    Technically this storm most likely won't be affecting the Caribbean that much - if it becomes a tropical storm the impact will be to Florida and the east coast:

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

    ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FORECAST TO
    BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...

    INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
    OF THIS SYSTEM.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
    86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES...465 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST
    FLORIDA AND ABOUT 440 MILES...710 KM...SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA
    FLORIDA.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND
    THIS TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
    DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

    AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS
    HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
    RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
    CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
    THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
    TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION
    OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
    RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
    WESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY.



    Caribbean braced for first storm

    Published on June 10, 2006 5:02 PM | Comments

    From the BBC:

    The first tropical depression of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season has formed in the Caribbean Sea, forecasters have said. The weather system could strengthen to become the season's first named storm.

    There are warnings of heavy rain, flash floods and mudslides in Cuba, the Cayman Islands and western Florida.

    The 2005 season was the most destructive on record with 15 hurricanes including Katrina, blamed for deaths of more than 1,300 people.

    The US Climate Agency says this year is expected to be "above normal" but less active than last year.

    Between 13 and 16 named storms have been predicted, of which four will be "major storms" of category three or above.

    The US hurricane season started on 1 June and lasts until 30 November.

    The depression was detected 80km (50 miles) southwest of Cuba's western tip at 1300 GMT, moving northwest at 19km/h.

    Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

    "Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today," the US National Hurricane Center said in an advisory.



    Tropical depression forms in northwest Caribbean

    Published on June 10, 2006 4:59 PM | Comments

    From the AP and the Palm Beach Post:

    By JENNIFER KAY Associated Press Writer MIAMI A tropical depression that formed Saturday in the Caribbean Sea was the first of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, which scientists predict could produce up to 16 named storms, six of them major hurricanes.

    The depression was expected to become the year's first named storm Alberto as it veers toward Florida but was not expected to become a hurricane.

    "It will be relatively weak in terms of wind, but that doesn't mean it's going to be weak in terms of rainfall," senior hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart said.

    Last year's hurricane season was the busiest and most destructive in recorded history. Hurricane Katrina alone devastated Louisiana and Mississippi and was blamed for more than 1,570 deaths in Louisiana alone.

    The depression that formed Saturday, nine days after the official start of the season, had maximum sustained winds near 35 mph, just below the 39-mph threshold for a tropical storm, according to the National Hurricane Center.

    At 5 p.m. EDT, the poorly organized depression was centered in the Caribbean Sea about 50 miles west of Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba, forecasters said. It was moving north-northwest near 6 mph.

    The hurricane center recommended tropical storm warnings for the Cuban provinces of Pinar Del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

    Over the next three days, the system was expected to move through the Yucatan Channel into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, then toward Florida where it could make landfall Monday or Tuesday somewhere between South Florida and the western tip of the Panhandle, forecasters said.



    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

    Published on June 10, 2006 3:52 AM | Comments

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

    1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HONDURAS AND WESTERN
    CUBA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
    HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
    BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12
    TO 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
    EXTREME WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BRINGING SQUALLS AND
    ADDITIONAL RAINS TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. AN AIR
    FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
    SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

    ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
    GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
    BECAUSE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR NEAR CUBA AT ANY TIME ON
    SATURDAY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
    PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA.



    Tropical system stirs Web bluster

    Published on June 10, 2006 3:48 AM | Comments

    Interesting article about hurricanes and the web from the St. Petersburg Times:

    The first tropical storm of the 2006 hurricane season may be forming in the Caribbean Sea, but a storm of a different sort already has developed on the Internet.

    While meteorologists closely watch a low-pressure system near the Yucatan Peninsula, a growing legion of weather bloggers has posted theories about whether this could become the first hurricane to hit the United States this year.

    Theyre all very abuzz about this maybe out of all proportion to whats going on, said Jack Beven, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

    The low pressure system could become a tropical depression today and bring rainy weather to the Tampa Bay area by Sunday.

    Hurricane season started June 1. Anyone familiar with what Hurricane Katrina did to Louisiana and Mississippi last year, or what damage was done by the four hurricanes that hit Florida in 2004, knows to keep an eye on weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Now, besides the usual TV and radio updates, weather blogs such as www.thestormtrack.com and flhurricane.com are blaring out warnings on the Web.

    Some of the blogs are put together by qualified meteorologists, while others, such as irishtrojan.com, are the work of amateurs with no formal training. The irishtrojan.com blog is run by a 24-year-old University of Notre Dame law student and self-professed weather nerd named Brendan Loy.

    More here.



    First tropical storm may form

    Published on June 10, 2006 3:42 AM | Comments

    From DisasterNews.net:

    A weather system off Mexico's Yucatan could turn into the Atlantic hurricane season's first tropical depression, forecasters said Friday. A hurricane hunter aircraft will fly into the system on Saturday. The disturbance was a couple hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan on Friday. It was tracking toward western Cuba. Even if the system fails to form into Tropical Storm Alberto, heavy rain will hit Belize, Honduras, Cayman Islands and Cuba.

    This system has the potential to become TS Alberto. We will be watching it closely over the weekend.



    Eight hurricanes forecast for 2006 season

    Published on June 9, 2006 6:05 AM | Comments

    From a Canadian insurance site, CanadianUnderwriter.ca:

    Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) anticipates Atlantic basin and U.S. landfall hurricane activity will be 40% above the long-term (1950-2005) norm in 2006. The TSR prediction includes:

    A 74% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 22% probability of a near-normal season and only a 4% chance of a below-normal season.

    An expectation of 14 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole; 8 of these would be hurricanes, including 3 intense hurricanes.

    A 70% probability of above-normal U.S. landfall hurricane activity, a 22% likelihood of a near-normal season and only an 8% chance of a below-normal season.

    Four tropical storm strikes on the U.S., of which 2 will be hurricanes.

    TSR is an award-winning consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College London.



    Is something brewing?

    Published on June 9, 2006 5:48 AM | Comments

    The latest tropical outlook from the NHC:

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 AM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA
    NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND PORTIONS
    OF CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH
    A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERING EASTERN YUCATAN AND THE GULF
    OF HONDURAS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
    THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM LAND.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
    SATURDAY.



    TROPICAL STORM ALETTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A

    Published on May 30, 2006 8:49 AM | Comments

    Aletta is moving out to the Pacific:

    TROPICAL STORM ALETTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 1100 AM PDT MON MAY 29 2006

    ...ALETTA MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST...TROPICAL
    STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

    AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA
    MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
    ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST OR ABOUT 120
    MILES...195 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

    ALETTA IS MOVING WEST AT 4 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
    TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
    NEXT DAY OR SO.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
    MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

    RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALETTA IS DIMINISHING ALONG THE
    COASTLINE.

    REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...101.8 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST AT 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

    THIS WILL BE THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ON ALETTA ISSUED BY THE
    NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



    TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 10

    Published on May 29, 2006 11:26 AM | Comments

    TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 800 AM PDT MON MAY 29 2006

    ...ALETTA WEAKENS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
    MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. WARNINGS WILL
    LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF THE WARNED AREA.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120
    MILES...190 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

    ALETTA IS DRIFTING WESTWARD...AND A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
    OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL
    POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
    MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

    ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
    1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN REGIONS OF
    MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

    REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...101.4 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
    PM PDT.



    Tropical storm drops rain on Acapulco

    Published on May 29, 2006 7:41 AM | Comments

    From Reuters:

    "MEXICO CITY -- The first tropical storm of the 2006 season showered light rain on the Mexican vacation resort of Acapulco today, although forecasters warned the weather could get worse.

    A fierce hurricane season last year devastated New Orleans, ravaged Mexico's Cancun resort and left hundreds of Mayan Indians buried under mud in Guatemala.

    Tropical Storm Aletta sat in the Pacific, 135 miles from Acapulco in the western state of Guerrero, with maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, which said the storm could move toward land over the next day."

    More here.



    Haiti's Storm-Tossed Brace for New Season

    Published on May 29, 2006 7:38 AM | Comments

    Here is a report from Haiti via the Washington Post:

    "GONAIVES, Haiti -- Tropical Storm Jeanne blew away Markley Maitre's concrete-block house in a rush of wind and water, forcing her to dig through the mud for debris to rebuild.

    Now, almost two years later, Maitre, a mother of five, still lives in a skeletal dwelling of scrap metal and sticks that won't provide much shelter when the next powerful storm strikes Haiti.

    "If we have another storm, I think we're all going to die," she said outside her home in Gonaives, a seaside city of dirt streets and open sewers in a region left vulnerable to storms by decades of deforestation.

    Jeanne killed about 3,000 people in Gonaives and displaced many more. Today -- with the start of the new hurricane season just days away -- there is still a large fetid lake formed by floodwaters on the city's outskirts and thousands of people crammed into a shantytown that sprang up to house survivors."

    More here.



    While I was sleeping... Tropical Storm ALETTA

    Published on May 29, 2006 7:27 AM | Comments

    Technically this isn't a Caribbean storm (it is an Eastern Pacific storm - they have a different set of names), but it is the first named storm of the season, a few days early, and could affect travelers in Mexico:

    TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 200 AM PDT MON MAY 29 2006

    ...ALETTA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
    MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. EASTERN
    PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TO THE EAST OF ACAPULCO MAY BE
    DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85
    MILES...140 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

    ALETTA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR...AND A
    CONTINUED SLOW MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
    OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

    ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
    3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN REGIONS OF
    MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING
    FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...16.2 N...101.0 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
    AM PDT.



    NOAA PREDICTS VERY ACTIVE 2006 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

    Published on May 24, 2006 5:06 AM | Comments

    On Monday the NOAA released their seasonal forecast:

    "For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," added retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator."

    The amount of storms is about the same as the Accuweather forecast. The release also has some good graphics to back up their predictions, and several links to audio files from the presentation including one from Dr. Max Mayfield.



    Caribbean region prepares for Hurricane Season

    Published on May 24, 2006 4:35 AM | Comments

    From RadioJamaica.com - a little light on the reporting, but at least there is some pan-Caribbean planning going on apparently:

    Disaster preparedness officials from the Caribbean and Central America are meeting in St. Lucia this week, planning for the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The season will officially start in two weeks time on June 1.

    Representatives of a number of international agencies are also attending the meeting.

    The experts say this year's hurricane season could match last year's in the number and intensity of storms.



    Joe Bastardi's 2006 Hurricane Forecast

    Published on May 24, 2006 4:20 AM | Comments

    "He's a Bastardi, but he's our Bastardi"

    Love him or hate him (I like him, even though he is a bit of a maniac) Joe Bastardi has his 2006 Hurricane forecast out. I think Joe is right most of the time - he is passionate about what he does, and he does it well. Accuweather has a link up to his video forecast but it is not working at the moment - if it comes back we will make a post to it. So, what is Joe saying for 2006?

    "The 2006 season will be a creeping threat. Early in the season - June and July - the Texas Gulf Coast faces the highest likelihood of a hurricane strike, possibly putting Gulf energy production in the line of fire. As early as July, and through much of the rest of the season, the highest level of risk shifts to the Carolinas. From mid-August into early October, the window is open for hurricane strikes to spread northward to the more densely populated Northeast coast. At the very end of the season, southern Florida also faces significant hurricane risk."

    There is more here, and the new Accuweather hurricane section is here.



    Forecasters find new hurricane clues

    Published on May 17, 2006 6:34 AM | Comments

    There is a very interesting new article on the MSNBC site up about these "hot towers":

    "Hot plumes that tower above some hurricanes presage stronger winds at the surface, NASA researchers said Tuesday.

    Using a satellite last summer to study Hurricane Rita from above, scientists discovered that towering clouds near the storm's eye were good predictors of future storm strength.

    If rain falls from clouds soaring to 9 miles high, and the rain persists, winds at the surface are likely to get stronger, the study concludes."

    Follow this link for the full article and graphics.



    Experts See Weaker 2006 Hurricane Season

    Published on May 9, 2006 10:51 AM | Comments

    Well, I don't think anyone was saying that this coming hurricane season was going to be stronger that last year's - but it seems so far the news has been that it has the potential to be at least as strong or as dangerous. This Discovery Channel article is the first one I can recall seeing that seems to go against that consensus:

    "May 9, 2006 Some early signs are beginning to roll in suggesting the 2006 hurricane season will not be the record that 2005 was, say climate researchers.

    The latest hopeful sign is the recent demise of the hurricane-boosting La Nia condition in the Pacific. After that is the storm-fueling sea surface temperature in the Atlantic, which is not so hot this year.

    Satellite sensors and ocean buoys show that the La Nia condition the vast pooling of unusually cool surface water in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean which formed late last year is now almost entirely gone. And while that does not guarantee a hurricane-free year, it's a good sign that the worst possible hurricane-making scenarios are not in the offing."

    There is more here.



    World's largest hurricane conference to begin Monday in Fort Lauderdale

    Published on May 8, 2006 7:15 AM | Comments

    The Sun-Sentinel.com is reporting:

    "More than 5,000 are expected at hurricane conference Monday.

    By Ken Kaye
    South Florida Sun-Sentinel
    Posted May 7 2006

    Fort Lauderdale on Monday will play host to the largest hurricane conference in the world, six months after Hurricane Wilma raked this region.

    More than 5,000 people plan to attend the five-day Governor's Hurricane Conference at the Broward Convention Center, including emergency, government, law enforcement and medical workers from scores of Florida cities and counties."

    More here.



    Forecasters Predict an Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Published on May 5, 2006 11:24 AM | Comments

    From the Environment News Service:

    "FORT COLLINS, Colorado, May 5, 2006 (ENS) - The start of the Atlantic hurricane season is less than a month away, and forecasters are predicting more devastating storms this year. Employing a statistical system based on past trends, hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University are predicting a "very active" season with landfall probabilities "well above their long-period averages."

    Their updated forecast, released in late April, projects 17 named storms, of which nine will become hurricanes."

    There is more here.



    Mexico to host first world hurricane conference

    Published on May 3, 2006 7:56 AM | Comments

    From The People's Daily Online (Strange, but I didn't see anyone else pick this story up - this is a English language version of a Chinses news site.)

    "The hurricane-hit Mexican resort city of Cancun will host the first International Hurricane Prevention Conference on May 19 and May 20, a local government official said on Monday.

    Pedro Flota Alcocer, who is head of public security in the southeast Mexico state of Quintana Roo, said participants would discuss preventative measures on a hurricane emergency.

    In particular, the delegates will discuss the risk to public health and the risk of forest fires following a hurricane.

    On the delegate list are representatives from countries close to the Gulf of Mexico, as well as 32 directors of Mexico's civil defense forces, and other specialists from Asia, Europe and Latin America.

    Quintana Roo was hit by Hurricanes Gilbert and Wilma last year, with heavy property losses and a small number of people killed."



    Test storm alert causes stir

    Published on May 2, 2006 3:12 AM | Comments

    The Caymanian Compass is reporting the following:

    "A test National Hurricane Centre alert stating Tropical Depression 1 had formed in the northwest Caribbean Friday afternoon caused some media in hurricanenervous New Orleans Friday afternoon to erroneously report the occurrence.

    The false report also made the rounds through email in Grand Cayman.

    The alert stated that the Government of Cuba had issued a Tropical Storm Watch for western Cuba. The centre of the storm was reported at 17.2 N 84.0 W, or approximately 230 miles southwest of Grand Cayman, and was heading due north at six knots."

    More here. This is the first time I have run across this particular website - does anyone know if it is new or anything else about it?



    Hurricane forecasters refining ability to make predictions

    Published on May 1, 2006 6:15 AM | Comments

    From the Scripps Howard News Service:

    "Compared to the monster storms of 2005, Tropical Storm Gert generated relatively few headlines, but has proved to be an excellent "test case" for refining computerized forecast models.

    Gert was the product of a prolific tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa in mid-July. The northern half of the wave generated Tropical Storm Franklin near the central Bahamas July 18, with the southern branch moving across the Caribbean Sea and developing into a tropical depression July 23.

    A large team of researchers was close by to measure all the ingredients that went into Gert's formation. The Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes Experiment _ which included scientists from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Meteorological Institute of Costa Rica and several universities _ worked out of Costa Rica for most of the month using weather aircraft and satellites to study how cloud formations in Central America interacted with storm systems coming off the Atlantic."

    More here.



    Cubans feeling vulnerable as another hurricane season approaches

    Published on May 1, 2006 6:00 AM | Comments

    From the Kansas City Star:

    "NIQUERO, Cuba - Jutting into the Caribbean Sea like a boxer's chin, this area of small towns and sugar cane fields near Cuba's southernmost point looks like a target no hurricane could miss.

    Yet for several generations, this coastal pocket on the lee side of the Sierra Maestra seemed immune from harm.

    "The mountains protected us," said life-long resident Hector Martinez, 67, recalling how tempest after tempest was either deflected or robbed of its punch.

    But last July, for the first time in memory, a major storm roared up the Jamaica Channel, cracked the glass in the Cabo Cruz lighthouse, and raked the promontory with winds as high as 145 mph.

    Hurricane Dennis killed 16 people in Cuba, including 13 in Granma province, and destroyed or damaged tens of thousands of homes in a nation already reeling under a housing crisis.

    Now, on the cusp of another hurricane season predicted to be as busy as the last, many local residents living in barely patched-up houses admit that last July's Category 4 storm shredded a sense of invulnerability that once sustained them.

    More here.



    Upcoming Hurricane Season Likely Strong

    Published on April 3, 2006 4:35 AM | Comments

    SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico - The top U.S. hurricane expert said Thursday that this years hurricane season is likely to be stronger than average, though short of the record 2005 season, the costliest on record.

    "It would be an unbelievable record to have another season like that, thats just not very realistic," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

    "I think everybody is going to say were going to have an above-average season here," Mayfield told a news conference at a San Juan hotel, adding: "We dont have the numbers worked out yet."

    More here.



    2006 Hurricane names

    Published on March 31, 2006 8:10 AM | Comments

    Here is the list of names for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season:

    Alberto
    Beryl
    Chris
    Debby
    Ernesto
    Florence
    Gordon
    Helene
    Isaac
    Joyce
    Kirk
    Leslie
    Michael
    Nadine
    Oscar
    Patty
    Rafael
    Sandy
    Tony
    Valerie
    William


    Expert Forecasts Rough Hurricane Season

    Published on March 31, 2006 7:28 AM | Comments

    From the Washington Post:

    SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico -- This year's hurricane season will likely be worse than usual, though not as severe as 2005, a U.S. hurricane expert said Thursday.

    A record 27 tropical storms formed last year, with seven becoming major hurricanes, including Katrina and three others that hit the United States.

    "I think everybody is going to say we're going to have an above-average season here," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

    He said the new hurricane season, beginning June 1, would not likely set a new record but the center's scientists were witnessing a trend of stronger and more frequent storms.



    2004-2005 hurricane seasons 'odd but explainable'

    Published on March 24, 2006 7:41 AM | Comments

    Were the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons all that odd? Can they be explained? Robert Weisberg, a University of South Florida College of Marine Science hurricane expert, and his colleague, Jyotika Virmani, concluded that when a record number of hurricanes lashed the Gulf coasts in 2004-2005 we were reaping what elevated surface sea temperatures (SSTs) sewed. Its happened before, said co- Weisberg and Virmani, who co-authored a paper recently published in Geophysical Research Letters (Vol.33 No.5) examining the 2005 hurricane season.

    More here.



    Next Hurricane Season Predicted to Be Milder

    Published on December 7, 2005 8:25 AM | Comments

    Well - how could anyone predict it to be busier than 2005? You would have to be crazy. I just hope the scientists are right:

    Dec. 6, 2005 With Hurricane Epsilon still swirling around far offshore in the Atlantic Ocean, William Gray and Philip Klotzbach at Colorado State University came out with their 2006 hurricane season predictions. They don't think it will be as bad as the one that officially ended Nov. 30.

    "It is statistically unlikely that the coming 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons will have the number of United States landfalling major hurricanes we have seen in the past two years," Gray said.

    They said they expect 17 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes. They think that five will become major hurricanes with winds over 111 mph.

    "The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be an active one with net tropical cyclone activity about 195 percent of the average season," Klotzbach said.

    More here.



    Hurricane rages on

    Published on December 5, 2005 4:31 PM | Comments

    From the AP:

    MIAMI - Hurricane Epsilon surprised experts when it regained strength Sunday in the open Atlantic, but the lingering storm still posed no threat to land.

    The 26th named storm of a record-breaking hurricane season had top sustained winds near 75 mph, just above the threshold for a hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

    Epsilon first reached hurricane strength on Friday and is the 14th hurricane of the season.

    At 10 p.m. Sunday, Epsilon's eye was about 630 miles west-southwest of the Azores and moving east near 9 mph.

    The Atlantic hurricane season began June 1 and officially ended Wednesday.

    Epsilon was only the fifth hurricane to form in December in more than 150 years of records, according to the hurricane center. The latest that a hurricane has formed in the Caribbean was Dec. 30, in 1954.



    Hurricane Season 2005 Finally Ends

    Published on December 3, 2005 6:05 AM | Comments

    From the EmeraldCoast.com:

    After six months of non-stop hurricane action, Emerald Coast residents were able to breath a sigh of relief as Hurricane Season 2005 finally came to an end Nov. 30.

    Although the hurricane season is officially over by standards of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency, Tropical Storm Epsilon continues to gain strength out in the Atlantic. This raises many questions can a hurricane season go into overtime?

    Bermuda may face more damage from Epsilon, but Florida is in a safe zone for the next few months. The waters have cooled and Floridians have already started ripping the plywood from the windows.

    Hurricane Season 2005 is definitely the most deadly and destructive hurricane season on record with more than 26 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 1,400 deaths.

    More here.



    Looking Back at Hurricane Season 2005

    Published on December 3, 2005 6:03 AM | Comments

    From WECT: (includes a video link)

    DECEMBER 1, 2005 -- The 2005 hurricane season has been one for the record books, with the 26th storm of the season, Epsilon, still going on in the central Atlantic. Overall, there have been 26 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and seven hurricanes that hit category 3 strength, all of which are two to three times the long term averages. Three of those seveb intense hurricanes, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, hit category 5 strength.

    Katrina certainly was the worst storm of the season to make landfall on the morning of August 29 in southeastern Louisiana and the Mississippi coast and becoming the most costly hurricane in U.S. history, with an estimated $80 billion worth of damage.

    Locally, Hurricane Ophelia passed just offshore on September 14, with the northern and western eyewall affecting our coastal counties as the center of the storm stayed just offshore.

    Two of this year's storms may get a postumous upgrade as well. The National Hurricane Center is looking into whether Cindy was a minimal hurricane at landfall in Louisiana in early July, and whether Hurricane Emily briefly reached category 5 strength in the Caribbean in mid-July.



    It's over!

    Published on November 30, 2005 6:58 PM | Comments

    Wow - that was a terrible hurricane season. There is going to be a lot written and studied about the 2005 season. Hopefully some lessons were learned and some new scienctific insights were made. The 2006 season is going to be looked at very warily. Epsilon is still kicking around out there in the Atlantic! We will continue to post relative Caribbean hurricane news here throughout the year so keep checking back.



    TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

    Published on November 6, 2005 9:32 AM | Comments

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    105 AM EST SUN NOV 06 2005

    TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
    AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
    OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
    THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
    SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
    METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

    BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
    0445 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT.
    LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH THE SIGNATURE CURVATURE MASKED BY AN
    UPPER LOW TO THE N. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

    E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 14N MOVING W 15
    KT. LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE MOSTLY OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH SCATTERED
    SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ABC ISLANDS TO INLAND
    OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 66W-70W.

    CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W S OF 18N MOVING
    W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH S UPPER FLOW ON THE W EDGE OF AN
    UPPER HIGH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
    13N-20N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA.

    ...ITCZ...

    ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N29W 11N46W 9N57W 10N65W.
    CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG ARE FROM
    3N-10N BETWEEN 9W-41W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...
    BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE GULF
    WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
    MOVING OUT OF THE PLAIN STATES TO OVER THE E U.S. WITH THE
    TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS TEXAS TO N/CENTRAL MEXICO. THE
    UPPER TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE N GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
    MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER REMAINING WELL TO THE N.
    SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS
    THE N GULF N OF 24N. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
    THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT DAY
    OR TWO AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL AMERICA
    MOVES W. AT A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N
    FLORIDA SW TO THE SW GULF.

    CARIBBEAN...
    AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N82W
    COVERING THE THE AREA W OF 75W AND EXTENDS N TO OVER THE GULF OF
    MEXICO. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER HIGH IS INTERACTING
    WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W
    OF 80W. A SECOND SMALLER UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR
    16N64W EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND COVERS THE
    REMAINDER OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE W TROPICAL ATLC. THIS
    SCENARIO IS LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W DRY WITH ONLY
    SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY
    FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN
    MOVES OUT AND BEFORE THE TROPICAL W E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
    MOVES IN.

    ATLANTIC...
    BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 50W WITH A SHORTWAVE
    TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW FROM 30N72W TO THE CENTRAL
    BAHAMAS NEAR 22N76W. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A
    SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N72W N TO BEYOND 32N71W WITH
    SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SECOND
    EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS E OF BERMUDA FROM 33N59W TO 27N61W
    WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH N OF
    THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
    28N FROM 56W-60W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
    ATLC MAINLY N OF THE REGION ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
    MEXICO. IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 25N41W
    THROUGH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR 20N45W TO 13N47W. BROAD UPPER
    RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE E TROPICS FROM S OF THE
    CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 11N25W NNW TO 30N31W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE
    W OF THE RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N AND GENERATING
    SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-26N BETWEEN 34W-44W.
    THIS IS LEAVING THE E TROPICAL ATLC VIRTUALLY CLEAR AND DRY.
    ALTHOUGH THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES DO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
    AFRICAN DUST OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH IS
    LOCATED JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N30W WITH A BROAD RIDGE
    COVERING THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 50W.



    TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A

    Published on September 18, 2005 4:49 PM | Comments

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    2 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

    ...DEPRESSION SLOWLY ORGANIZING AS IT NEARS THE BAHAMAS...

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
    OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
    FLORIDA BAY.

    A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
    ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND
    WESTERN CUBA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
    SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
    FLORIDA AND FOR CUBA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN
    WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST OR
    ABOUT 385 MILES... 625 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE
    BAHAMAS.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH... 17 KM/HR. A
    GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
    THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER
    THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
    BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
    AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...21.9 N... 72.4 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
    WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    5 PM EDT.



    New Storms

    Published on September 18, 2005 4:45 PM | Comments

    We suddenly have a couple of new storms that have popped up and that we will be tracking this week. Tropical Storm Philippe, which is still out in the Atlantic and appears to be heading north and away from the Caribbean, and Tropical Depression 18 (now named Rita), which is at the moment north of Haiti and forecasted at this point to make it into the Gulf of Mexico.



    TD Sixteen, Hurricane Maria, TS Nate

    Published on September 6, 2005 3:38 PM | Comments

    There certainly is a lot of tropical weather out there, but the Caribbean itself is remaining out of the spotlight. Maria is gone in the Atlantic, Nate may cause problems for Bermuda, and at the moment TD 16 is dumping quite a lot of rain on the Bahamas. TD 16 could easily become TS Ophelia or Hurricane Ophelia in the coming days. It may cause problems in Florida and perhaps higher up the east coast this week.



    TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2

    Published on August 24, 2005 12:16 AM | Comments

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    11 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

    ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY ORGANIZING AND MOVING SLOWLY
    NORTHWESTWARD...
    ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
    FLORIDA EAST COAST...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
    NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND... THE EXUMAS... LONG
    ISLAND... RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR... THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
    THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND... THE BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...
    ELEUTHERA... GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    AT 11 PM EDT... 0300Z... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
    PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
    WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL
    STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
    ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT
    140 MILES... 230 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11
    KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
    NEXT 24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
    AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

    THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
    OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... WITH
    ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL
    ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST
    OF CUBA.

    STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
    ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
    NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

    REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...23.4 N... 76.0 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
    WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
    EDT.



    SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

    Published on August 22, 2005 10:59 AM | Comments

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    935 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

    ...ELEVENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON IS FORMING OVER THE
    BAY OF CAMPECHE...

    SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
    IS FORMING WITHIN THE DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A
    SPECIAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT
    HOUR.

    TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
    OF THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.



    Experts predict upsurge in activity as Atlantic Hurricane Season peaks

    Published on August 19, 2005 12:29 PM | Comments

    Everyone has updated their forecasts and is still calling for more activity but things have gotten sort of quiet. From the Caribbean Net News.com:

    BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CDERA): If hurricane researchers and forecasters are correct then the current lull in hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean should soon give way, opening the flood gates to the Cape Verde season.

    Historically the 60-day period between August 15 and October 15 is regarded as the peak of the annual Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Season when the most intense activity occurs. According to the latest updated forecast, the rest of the season should see about another 10 storms being formed of which three have been forecast to make landfall in the Lesser Antilles.

    In its August update for the season, the forecast team of Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea of the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at the University College of London, has increased the numbers for this season to 22 storms, 11 hurricanes, and seven major hurricanes. The numbers follow the trending from Professor Bill Gray of the Colorado State University, the United States Governments National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the Meteorological Institute of Cuba.

    Click here for the rest



    July sets Atlantic tropical storm record

    Published on August 17, 2005 11:59 AM | Comments

    From the AP:

    WASHINGTON The five named tropical storms recorded in July were the most on record for that month, and worldwide it was the second warmest July on record, the National Climatic Data Center reported Tuesday.

    In the United States it was the 12th warmest July on record, with the national average temperature 1.5 degree Fahrenheit above normal for the month.

    The West was most affected by the excessive heat in July from the 11th to 27th. More than 200 cities broke daily high temperature records, with Denver, Colo., having its second warmest July since 1872 and equaling the all-time highest daily temperature record of 105 degrees.

    Las Vegas, Nev., equaled its all-time record daily maximum temperature of 117 degrees, and had five consecutive days with temperatures exceeding 115.

    U.S. rainfall was about average for the country as a whole, with unusually dry conditions across the Rockies, High Plains and the Mid-to-Upper-Mississippi Valley. There was above average wetness in the Southeast, in large part related to landfalling tropical storms.

    Tropical Storm Cindy formed early on July 5 and then moved northward to make landfall near Grand Isle, La. Heavy rainfall and inland flooding accompanied Cindy as it tracked northeastward across the eastern U.S.

    When Tropical Storm Dennis formed, also on July 5, it was the earliest date on record for a fourth named storm. Dennis grew into the earliest category 4 hurricane on record and made landfall near Pensacola, Fla., on the 10th, spreading heavy rainfall inland.

    July also included Emily and Franklin. The formation of Tropical Storm Gert on the 24th made it a record five storms in the month.

    Worldwide, the average temperature for July was 1.08 degrees above normal in records dating back to 1880, the second warmest July on record. The warmest was in 1998 with readings 1.17 above average for the month.

    Land surface temperatures were warmer than average in Scandinavia, much of Asia, North Africa and the western U.S., while below average temperatures occurred in northern Canada and northern Alaska.

    Sea ice across the Northern Hemisphere oceans, as measured by satellites, was lowest on record for July. For the last nine years, sea ice has been below the monthly mean for July. Sea ice generally reaches an annual minimum in September.

    For the period January-July the average temperature of the planet was 1.06 degree above average, third warmest on record. The warmest was 1998 at 1.24 degree above normal.



    Forecasts raised for busy U.S. hurricane season

    Published on August 15, 2005 9:27 AM | Comments

    From Reuters:

    LONDON (Reuters) - A higher-than-usual number of hurricanes are expected to slam into the United States this year, a leading hurricane forecaster said on Monday, threatening areas trying to rebuild from last year's devastating storms.

    Tropical Storm Risk, a London-based storm forecaster, raised its outlook for hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year by 30 percent from its July outlook on the expectation of higher-than-normal sea temperatures and winds in the region.

    There is a high probability of an above-average number of tropical storms, which can intensify into hurricanes, making landfall in the United State, the group said.

    Click here to read the rest.



    Trees Hold Record of Ancient Hurricane Activity

    Published on August 10, 2005 4:45 PM | Comments

    Interesting article from Live Science:

    Georgia pine trees harbor a record of every hurricane to hit the area in the past century, a new study found.

    Further research across the Southeast uncovered a hurricane record stretching back more than two centuries. Even a storm from 1780 was revealed in the wood.

    Researchers hope to apply their arboreal archeology to a broader geographic region, and to older trees, to investigate storm frequency over the past 550 years.

    Since reliable accounts of historical hurricanes extend back only a century or so, the new technique could be a boon to climate researchers who wonder if global warming is altering the frequency of deadly tropical storms.

    Click here for the rest.



    TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 9

    Published on August 6, 2005 8:06 PM | Comments

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    5 PM AST SAT AUG 06 2005

    ...DEPRESSION RELOCATED NORTHWARD...

    AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
    RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 43.2 WEST OR ABOUT
    1305 MILES...2100 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
    ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
    24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
    HOURS.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...19.0 N... 43.2 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
    WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    11 PM AST.



    TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 7

    Published on August 6, 2005 8:55 AM | Comments

    This depression survived the night and is becoming a little better organized. Doesn't look like a threat to the Caribbean but could impact Bermuda down the road:

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    5 AM AST SAT AUG 06 2005

    ...DEPRESSION BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
    OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

    AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST OR ABOUT
    1405 MILES...2265 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
    ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
    THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
    AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 41.7 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
    WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
    AT 11 AM AST.



    Hurricane Ivan generated monster waves - study

    Published on August 5, 2005 5:54 PM | Comments

    From Reuters:

    WASHINGTON, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Hurricane Ivan, which caused a swathe of destruction across the Caribbean last September before crashing into the U.S. Gulf coast, generated ocean waves more than 90 feet (27 metres) high, researchers said on Thursday.

    They may have been the tallest waves ever measured with modern instruments, suggesting that prior estimates for maximum hurricane wave heights are too low, William Teague of the Naval Research Laboratory at the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi and colleagues reported.

    Click here for the rest



    Hurricane Hunters Investigating Caribbean Storm

    Published on August 1, 2005 1:00 PM | Comments

    From All Headline News:

    Miami, Florida (AHN) - The National Hurricane Center is sending an Air Force Reserve Unit Reconnaissance aircraft to investigate a storm system in the southern Caribbean Sea this afternoon as a low pressure system becomes better organized.

    The system is moving rapidly to the west at 20 mph as forecasters want to make sure that if anything is indeed developing they are prepared as the storm is expected to be near Cuba within 72-hours.



    Forecasters watch march of tropical waves

    Published on July 31, 2005 12:18 PM | Comments

    From FloridaToday.com :

    At least two tropical waves in the Atlantic have the attention of forecasters today at the National Hurricane Center.

    Currently, the systems have not shown indications of rapid development. However, a hurricane hunter aircraft may be dispatched to one as the waves march westward.

    Here, according to a statement from hurricane forecasters, are the waves:

    A tropical wave is producing widespread cloudiness and scattered showers from Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the northern Lesser Antilles northward over the Atlantic for a few hundred miles.

    Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable and development, if any, should be slow to occur over the next couple of days.

    Another tropical wave is moving westward at 20 mph through the central and southern Lesser Antilles. This system remains poorly organized.

    Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable for some
    slow development to occur. However, an Air Force Reserve unit
    reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
    afternoon, if necessary.



    Tropical system fails to pick up steam

    Published on July 30, 2005 10:17 AM | Comments

    From FloridaToday.com:

    A system of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico has not become any better organized today, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami said.

    The system, located between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, is drifting westward.

    "Upper-level winds are not favorable for significant development," forecasters said in a statement today.

    "Although the potential for the formation of a tropical depression has disminished, squalls producing brief periods of heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds ... are possible over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today," forecasters said.

    A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.



    Tropical Waves

    Published on July 29, 2005 12:33 PM | Comments

    There are a couple of tropical waves out there right now - the one that is passing by the Virgin Islands today does seem to have the potential to turn into something that may effect the Eastern Caribbean early next week (Jamaica). It will be interesting to see the NHCs take on this and when (if ever) they call it a tropical depression or not. We may get a break for awhile from the Atlantic waves after this one, though tropical weather may pop up in the Gulf of Mexico and the Eastern U.S. coast.

    (PS - I am not a weatherman - just someone who is interested in the weather - the above is my opinion only from the reading and watching of the reports of the current conditions).

    tgsfc1.gif

    Image courtesy of http://www.wsi.com



    Noted forecaster says warm Atlantic could be a hurricane alley

    Published on July 28, 2005 10:00 AM | Comments

    An article about my favorite hurricane forecaster, Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather, from the Herald Tribune (Florida):

    The 2005 hurricane season is far from over in the Gulf of Mexico, but at least one long-range forecaster says the Atlantic coastline will be the focus of storm activity during the season's busiest months.

    AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi is calling for 18 named storms this season, with the United States being hit another six times in the months to come.

    He says much of his call for more East Coast action has to do with water temperatures in the Atlantic.

    Bastardi leads a parade of long-range hurricane forecast revisions due out at this time each year.

    Click here to read the rest



    The potential Emily & Franklin are on the move...

    Published on July 11, 2005 9:09 PM | Comments

    My favorite hurricane person/weather man Joe Bastardi says that T.D. 5 and what will become T.D. 6 (just rolling off Africa) look like the potential hurricanes Emily and Franklin. It is pretty far out time wise but the European model is showing these two storms making their way through the region as hurricanes. We will keep you posted and look forward to any updates you can send our way as the week progresses.



    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4

    Published on July 11, 2005 9:08 PM | Comments

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    5 PM AST MON JUL 11 2005

    ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD...

    AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT
    1030 MILES...1655 KM... EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH
    ...22 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN
    FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED...BUT HAS THE
    POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...10.6 N... 46.0 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
    WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
    HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.



    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3

    Published on July 11, 2005 3:41 PM | Comments

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    11 AM AST MON JUL 11 2005

    ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

    AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
    RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST OR ABOUT
    1120 MILES...1800 KM... EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH
    ...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
    24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
    ON TUESDAY.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...10.3 N... 44.7 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
    WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
    HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.



    Recent Tropical Weather

    Published on July 5, 2005 9:11 AM | Comments

    Tropical Storm Cindy is in the Gulf of Mexico and no threat to the Caribbean. The storm to watch this week will be what is now Tropical Depression Four and could become a Hurricane (probably Dennis) sometime during the week as it nears Cuba.



    Tropical Storm Calvin

    Published on June 28, 2005 8:05 AM | Comments

    There is another Pacific storm, Calvin, off the coast of Mexico. This poses no threat to the Caribbean.

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    4 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005
    
    

    FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
    STORM CALVIN...LOCATED ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
    ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
    WEDNESDAY.



    NOAA DEPLOYS SEVEN NEW HURRICANE BUOYS

    Published on June 18, 2005 11:47 AM | Comments

    June 17, 2005 The NOAA National Data Buoy Center launched six new weather data buoy stations designed to enhance hurricane monitoring and forecasting. The buoys have been deployed in key locations in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. The center also deployed a seventh buoy off the coast of Pensacola, Fla., re-establishing a former station. Click here for the full story.



    Hurricane Center keeping eye on area of thunderstorms southeast of Jamaica

    Published on June 15, 2005 4:36 PM | Comments

    THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
    A DISORGANIZED 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 
    19N81W...ONE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE EASTERN END
    OF HAITI NEAR 20N76W...AND ANOTHER TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW 
    CENTER TO 17N84W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
    CENTER IS NEAR 21N81W ABOUT 110 NM SOUTH OF CUBA. THE MID/UPPER 
    LOW OVER W CUBA...AND THE RESULTANT WESTERLY SHEAR ARE KEEPING 
    ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM CUBA TO HAITI AND JAMAICA
    AND ADJACENT WATERS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
    WERE PRESENT YESTERDAY WERE WITHIN 250 NM SOUTH OF HAITI AND
    IN EASTERN JAMAICA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
    CONTINUE TODAY WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN 
    PENINSULA OF HAITI BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE 
    THAT FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN HAITI MAY ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW 
    THE HEAVY RAINS WHICH MAY CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND 
    TONIGHT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN ABOUT
    180 NM SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. 
    STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE AT THE COAST OF 
    EASTERN CUBA FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 76W. THE UPPER LOW 
    IS KEEPING MOST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN UNDER AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO 
    UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER. SCATTERED MODERATE 
    TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING ENHANCED
    SOMEWHAT BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BECAUSE OF THE LOCATION 
    OF THE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE 
    SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS EAST OF
    THE SFC LOW FROM THE ABC ISLANDS NE ACROSS GUADELOUPE...WHICH IS 
    FUNNELING MOST OF THE MOISTURE N OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE 
    FAVORED AREA OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE W CARIBBEAN LATER 
    IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
    DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLC.


    TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 2

    Published on June 8, 2005 10:56 PM | Comments

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    11 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005
    
    

    ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST
    CARIBBEAN...

    AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO
    AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

    INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE
    83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 340 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND
    CAYMAN AND ABOUT 290 MILES... 470 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
    WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH
    ... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
    SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS...MAINLY IN RAIN BANDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME
    STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
    DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
    HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

    HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
    ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

    MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE DEPRESSION IS PRODUCING
    VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PARTICULARLY
    NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
    FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N... 83.9 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
    EDT.



    First tropical depression forms

    Published on June 8, 2005 10:52 PM | Comments

    From CNN:

    Cuba issues tropical storm watch

    Wednesday, June 8, 2005 Posted: 8:45 PM EDT (0045 GMT)

    MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- The first tropical depression of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season formed Wednesday in the northwest Caribbean, prompting Cuba to issue a tropical storm watch.

    Read the rest here.



    NOAA UNVEILS STORM TRACKER TO FOLLOW TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES

    Published on June 8, 2005 3:15 PM | Comments

    Here is something new from NOAA:

    "As the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season gets underway, NOAA today introduced a new way to follow specific tropical storms or hurricanes. NOAA Storm Tracker will contain live links to advisories, tracking maps and satellite images of a particular storm that is projected to strike the United States or other nations in a storms path."


    We may have a system brewing...

    Published on June 8, 2005 11:38 AM | Comments

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
    AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
    BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING
    BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
    BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
    BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
    SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
    IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. EVEN IF THE
    SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
    AFFECTING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
    THURSDAY.



    Latest Tropical Outlook

    Published on June 6, 2005 8:26 PM | Comments

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE
    NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THIS WEATHER
    REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
    OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND
    LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
    U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN
    REPUBLIC.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
    TUESDAY.



    All quiet

    Published on June 3, 2005 9:34 AM | Comments

    The latest tropical outlook confirms that not much is happening yet:

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2005

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
    SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA...FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
    ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL
    WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
    LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA FOR THE
    NEXT DAY OR SO.

    A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND
    A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
    TWO. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

    TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

    FORECASTER AVILA



    Weary Floridians brace for another season of storms

    Published on June 2, 2005 10:14 AM | Comments

    From the Gainesvill Sun:

    Most people in North Central Florida greeted the start of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season with the usual lack of interest: So it's June 1, ho-hum.

    Last year's lackadaisical attitude early on was somewhat backed up by decades of little inland impact from a hurricane. In Alachua County, for example, it had been 40 years since a hurricane did more than blow loose a shingle here and there.

    Today, the 2005 hurricane season begins, and there's a decided difference in the way inland Floridians are approaching this six-month period of anxiety that ends Nov. 30.

    Read the whole article here.



    First Day of Hurricane Season

    Published on June 1, 2005 9:38 AM | Comments

    Today, June 1, marks the first day of hurricane season in the Atlantic. The season runs until the end of November. Here is an article from the St. Thomas Source this morning with more information. We will be keeping you posted here as the season progresses.



    Latest Tropical Discussion

    Published on June 1, 2005 9:20 AM | Comments

    TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 01 2005

    TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
    AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
    OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
    THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
    SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
    METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

    BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
    1015 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15
    KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
    RIDGING AND DIFFLUENCE. AS SUCH...CONVECTION IS RATHER ACTIVE
    WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N
    BETWEEN 32W-36W.

    CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAKENING SWATH OF AFRICAN DUST WITH ENHANCED E TRADEWINDS. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS ACTING TO SUPPRESS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS ON THE RISE. MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE WILL CROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THU BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

    W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ALONG
    82W/83W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON
    EXTRAPOLATION WITH LITTLE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. ANY ASSOCIATED
    DEEP CONVECTION IS MASKED BY THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND S FLOW AT
    THE UPPER LEVELS.

    ...ITCZ...

    ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 9N21W 10N35W 6N49W 7N60W. IN
    ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED
    MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
    36W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF
    THE AXIS FROM 14W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
    CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 41W-47W. CLUSTERS
    OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM
    51W-60W.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...
    VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA
    COURTESY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM AN UPPER
    LOW THAT HAS MOVED N INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ACROSS THE N GULF
    COAST TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 89W. THE ATTENDANT
    STATIONARY FRONT IS MEANDERING ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES ALONG
    31N/32N FROM THE W ATLC TO A 1004 MB LOW ALONG THE SE COAST OF
    LOUISIANA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW ALONG 25N88W TO A
    1006 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
    NEAR 19N93W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FORM 1004 MB LOW W
    INTO TO TEXAS. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO IGNITE A STRONG
    CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH IS BEING PROPAGATED E/NE ACROSS THE
    FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
    SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS FORMING OVER THE NE GULF WITHIN THE
    STRONGLY DIFFLUENT REGION SE OF THE SURFACE LOW. SATELLITE
    IMAGERY INDICATES AN OVERALL MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NE AND THIS
    AREA OF ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING MOST OF FLORIDA AND WILL CONTINUE
    TO SPREAD INTO THE W ATLC AND THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
    EXPECT PERIODS OF SQUALLS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
    RAINFALL N OF CUBA FROM 76W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE
    DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS BEING RE-ENFORCED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
    TROUGH DROPPING SE FROM OVER TEXAS WITH A SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY
    APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
    THE GULF TIL FRI WHEN THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS THE AN
    UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID-WEST MOVES TOWARD THE NE UNITED
    STATES. THUS...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
    AT ANY TIME OVER THE E GULF FOR TODAY. ACTIVITY COULD BE MORE
    DIURNALLY DRIVEN OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME S
    FLORIDA WITH DEEP LAYERED S FLOW AND AN ALREADY MOIST ATMOSPHERE
    KEEPING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE AVERAGE...
    ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. W OF THE UPPER TROUGH...
    MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRYING WILL PRODUCE
    TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE
    VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING TEXAS.

    CARIBBEAN...
    A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE W
    CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NNW OVER CENTRAL CUBA. FURTHER
    E...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
    EXTENDS S INTO E CARIBBEAN FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO JUST N
    OF VENEZUELA. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONFLUENCE
    RESULTING IN SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE
    CENTRAL TO E CARIBBEAN. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE S
    OF 15N FROM 75W-82W. AN ACTIVE ITCZ COUPLED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
    IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
    CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 18NW OF 76W. W OF
    82W...DEEP-LAYERED S FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
    AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
    ENHANCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N
    ACROSS W CUBA. ELSEWHERE...HAZY SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH AFRICAN
    DUST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN... ESPECIALLY
    E OF 75W. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE W CARIBBEAN AND
    CENTRAL AMERICA MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/WET AS LOW
    LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER FLOW REGIME
    BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT.

    ATLANTIC...
    SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS FLORIDA EARLIER THIS
    MORNING IS AGAIN MOVING INTO THE W ATLC WITH STRONG
    THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
    THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS N OF
    23N. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS DIURNALLY
    DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL BE GENERATED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
    EXTREME S FLORIDA AS DEEP LAYERED S FLOW AND AN ALREADY MOIST
    ATMOSPHERE ARE IN PLACE KEEPING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/
    THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE AVERAGE... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
    HOURS. CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN MAINLY POLEWARD
    OF A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING ALONG 31N/32N E OF BERMUDA.
    ELSEWHERE OVER THE W ATLC...AMPLE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
    MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ASSIST THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
    PROPAGATE OVER THE BAHAMAS FURTHER INTO THE W ATLC. LOOKING
    UPSTREAM....THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE NE
    UNITED STATES COAST IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE N PORTION OF THE
    WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLC...RE-ENFORCING THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN
    CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
    WILL PUSH THE NOW STATIONARY FRONT SE STARTING LATER TODAY
    ENTERING THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AS EARLY AS THU WITH
    SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
    MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
    THROUGH 30N48W SW INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH ASSOCIATED
    DIFFLUENCE GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
    THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OF 22N58W. IN THE E ATLC...
    MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SPAIN SW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR
    29N25W AND A SECOND LOW NEAR 23N37W TO WEAK THIRD LOW NEAR
    20N41W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING
    NE WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ITS WAKE FROM AFRICA
    WESTWARD ALONG 10N. UPPER DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE W PERIPHERY OF THE
    RIDGE IS ASSISTING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ. THE
    ITCZ...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WAVE ALONG 34W SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE
    AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL
    RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD W ACROSS THE ATLC WITH A WELL-DEFINED
    AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES SW ALONG 32N35W TO A
    1025 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N52W THEN W TO THE
    BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES
    ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
    LATER IN THE WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO
    THE CENTRAL ATLC. FINALLY...AN EXPANSIVE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST
    SPANS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...GENERALLY S
    OF 25N TO THE ITCZ.



    Hurricane ADRIAN Special Advisory number 9

    Published on May 19, 2005 4:51 PM | Comments

    WTPZ31 KNHC 191747
    TCPEP1
    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE ADRIAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    11 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005

    ...AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATES THAT ADRIAN IS A HURRICANE...

    AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENTS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
    HAVE UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
    THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE EASTWARD TO THE EL
    SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
    HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA...AND FOR GUATEMALA FROM
    SIPACATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT 120
    MILES... 195 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.

    ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND A
    GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
    SPEED...IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
    CENTER OF ADRIAN WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING
    AREA LATER TONIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
    THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
    GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME ADDITIONAL
    STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
    FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
    TO 70 MILES...110 KM.

    THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
    PLANE WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

    RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
    AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
    ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
    LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

    STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
    WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND
    TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

    REPEATING THE 11 AM PDT POSITION...12.6 N... 90.6 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM
    PDT.

    FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA



    Tropical Storm ADRIAN Public Advisory

    Published on May 19, 2005 5:09 AM | Comments

    There is a tropical storm/potential hurricane brewing over Central America. This storm was born in the Pacific and has the name Adrian - Arlene is the first Atlantic name for this year. It is not too common for a storm to start in the Pacific and cross over into the Gulf of Mexico but that is what Adrian seems to be doing:

    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   6A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    11 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2005
     
    ...ADRIAN HEADED FOR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
     
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
    COAST OF EL SALVADOR.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
    PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...
    INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA.
    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
     
    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
     
    AT 11 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH..LONGITUDE  91.8 WEST OR ABOUT
    230 MILES... 370 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.
     
    ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR  8 MPH
    ...13 KM/HR...AND A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME
    INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
     
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ADRIAN COULD BECOME A
    HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.
     
    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES
    ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
     
    RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
    AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
    ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN.  THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
    PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
    DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
    LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
     
    STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVEL IS
    POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
     
    REPEATING THE 11 PM PDT POSITION...11.4 N... 91.8 W.  MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
    WINDS... 60 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.
     
    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
    HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT.
     
    FORECASTER FRANKLIN