September 27, 2011
Remnants of Ophelia, Tropical Storm Philippe UPDATE
This is an update - as Ophelia looks like it may in fact become a named storm again and could produce heavy rains for the Leeward islands:
1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA...CENTERED A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE
AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A BROAD
CIRCULATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
The remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia are still hanging around north of the Leeward Islands, and Tropical Storm Philippe is out in the Atlantic meandering northward. Neither system looks at this point to be a risk to the Caribbean region.
August 20, 2011
Possibly Irene
What possibly could be Tropical Storm Irene is brewing up and is very close to the Caribbean - this should be watched:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROATAN
HONDURAS.
1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS
TIME. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
2. A LARGE AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE LOW IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
Here is the early model tracks of the storm, but this does not discuss what intensity it might reach:
August 11, 2011
Couple of potential storms in the works
We saw recently how unpredictable tropical storm and hurricane forecasting can be with Emily - she never really got up to speed and the track changed enormously during the life of the storm. That being said, there are a couple of systems in the Atlantic now that the computer models are crunching away, and they have the potential to impact the Caribbean region in the days ahead. Again, I always write here about how if you are traveling to to the region you need to have purchased trip insurance before a storm is named, so if you are headed to the Caribbean in the next week or so, you should think about that NOW if you have not already!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE
LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
3. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
And this is the ensemble model (all the models put together) for number two in the above image:
July 31, 2011
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
455 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES.
1. UPDATED...COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS HAVE LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF DATA
RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT
...ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED
TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...AND WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR MONDAY
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY
SHORT NOTICE...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
July 30, 2011
Composite model track not looking good
This is the composite track this morning - if this storm does become a hurricane and stays anywhere near this course, several islands could be severely affected obviously:
Tropical depression looking more ominous this morning
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON FORMER
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DON...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN LOW
IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO ITS
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
July 29, 2011
Tropical wave could bring heavy rain to Puerto Rico, Hispaniola
Sun-Sentinel (blog)
With Tropical Storm Cindy and ex-Tropical Storm Bret nonfactors, the wave is worth watching because its moving west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph - and it's to the southeast of the US coast. For now, the hurricane center gives it a 30 percent chance of... more here.
Tropical Wave
This could be something that the Caribbean may have to worry about -
1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH.
Tropical Storm Don is a non-event for the Caribbean as it approaches landfall in Texas.
June 15, 2011
Suppliers offer guarantees for the 2011 hurricane season
Travel Weekly is reporting on hotel policies for this hurricane season, including this from Bolongo Bay:
May 31, 2011
Hurricane outlook indicates an above-normal Atlantic season
We have heard this story before in the last several years, and fortunately for the region the forecast is not always right. That being said, the predictions from most agencies this year seem to be for an active season - this is from the NOAA:
NOAA's 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for a 65% chance of an above normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.
This outlook reflects an expected set of conditions that is conducive to above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity. These conditions are based on three climate factors:
The tropical multi-decadal signal, which has contributed to the high-activity era in the Atlantic basin that began in 1995,
A continuation of above-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea (called the Main Development Region),
ENSO-neutral conditions most likely (no El Niño or La Niña), with lingering La Niña impacts into the summer.
In addition, several dynamical model forecasts of the number and strength of tropical cyclones generally predict an above normal season.
The conditions expected this year have historically produced some active Atlantic hurricane seasons. Therefore, the 2011 season could see activity comparable to a number of active seasons since 1995. We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2011:
12-18 Named Storms,
6-10 Hurricanes
3-6 Major Hurricanes
An ACE range of 105%-200% of the 1981-2010 median.
The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.
The official NHC seasonal averages are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
Hurricane Landfalls:
It only takes one storm hitting your area to cause a disaster, regardless of the overall activity predicted in the seasonal outlook. Therefore, residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions are urged to prepare every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook.
While NOAA does not make an official seasonal hurricane landfall outlook, the historical probability for multiple U.S. hurricane strikes, and for multiple hurricane strikes in the region around the Caribbean Sea, increases sharply for exceptionally active (i.e. hyperactive) seasons (ACE > 165% of the median). However, predicting where and when hurricanes will strike is related to daily weather patterns, which are not reliably predictable weeks or months in advance. Therefore, it is currently not possible to reliably predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season.
September 24, 2010
Lisa & Matthew
There are a couple of named storms out there:
Lisa is a non-event, it is very far out in the Atlantic and expected to stay there.
Matthew is a tropical storm but it is moving almost dead west and is really a concern for Central America and Mexico, and not the Caribbean Islands. We'll keep an eye on this one and post more about it soon.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 295 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW...LOCATED ABOUT 170 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON MATTHEW ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON MATTHEW
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5.
September 11, 2010
Tropical Weather Update
Igor looks to become a major hurricane in the coming week, but the current forecast track does take it north of the Caribbean basin. Whether it impacts the Bahamas, Bermuda, or the east coast of the U.S. is still a little too far away for the NHC to predict.
Also of note is an area of storm in the southern part of the Caribbean - this is sort of a rare spot for a storm to develop from but it looks like it will become a storm eventually in the Caribbean basin - meaning the Leeward and Windward Islands will be clear of it already, but it could possibly impact Cuba, Jamaica, the Caymans, etc. Again - it is early to see where the NHC puts the path of this potential storm.
Lastly there is a vigorous wave coming off of Africa they are watching. The official take is below:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 915 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
September 7, 2010
Looking better this morning
Gaston (or the remains of Gaston) finally appears to have blown apart, and there are a couple of other waves very far away off the coast of Africa. So things are looking clear for the Caribbean region for now.
That being said - don't forget we are in the height of hurricane season. Make sure you keep up to date if you are a resident of or traveling to the Caribbean.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE...LOCATED ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
HARLINGEN TEXAS.
1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GASTON. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY DEFINED AND THE ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
3. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
September 6, 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN...LOCATED ABOUT 205 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO
MEXICO.
1. THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON...LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BEGIN TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.
September 5, 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010
The former Gaston needs watching:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THE LOW COULD
REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS IF ADVISORIES ARE
RE-INITIATED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
September 4, 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010
September is traditionally the busiest time of hurricane season, and this season is no different. The remnants of Gaston are making noise, and unfortunately the earlier track had this heading straight into the Caribbean basin. We'll have to wait and see if it reforms into a Tropical Storm again and what the new track is, but it bears watching. There is also another potential system behind it.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 105 MILES
EAST-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.
1. THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
FORM NEAR THE CENTER...THEN ADVISORIES COULD BE RE-INITIATED ON
THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.
3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
4. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
September 1, 2010
3 Storms at once
3 tropical storms at one time is really too much to handle - and as I write this, there appears to be a large wave coming off the coast of Africa yet again. First the good news for the Caribbean - Earl is gone from the region, and Fiona is quickly pulling away.
The bad news is newly formed Gaston. Sometimes with this much activity there isn't a lot of fuel left for storms that come behind others on the same track, but the NHC is talking about this reaching hurricane status even though there is a lot of dry air around.
It is a little early for the tracking but at this point it appears to be heading toward the northern Leeward Islands. The best hope is that the ridge that steered Fiona north is still in place by the time Gaston gets close and it follows the same path. But it needs to be watched closely for now.
Atlantic Water Temperature
This is a recent photo - you can see the remains of Danielle, Earl, what is to become Fiona, and the system behind. The red indicates the warmth of the water, which feeds the strength of these hurricanes.
August 31, 2010
Caribbean Hurricane Update
To all of our 1,000+ alert subscribers, a recap:
Hurricane Earl is pretty much done with the Caribbean. There are still some watches up for the Turks & Caicos and Bahamas, but it is pulling away an will be an east coast U.S. problem for the next several days. It appears it was a property damage type of storm on most islands - I have not seen any reports of deaths. There are several islands without power, etc. and it may take some weeks for all to be back to normal.
Tropical Storm Fiona is forecast to veer northward and not reach hurricane status - there are some >watches and warnings up for Leeward Islands but this doesn't look like a serious storm at the moment.
There is also another area that the NHC is watching off the Cape Verde islands. So, considering that the tropics are "hot" as they say in meteorological circles, you should be actively monitoring the situation as a resident or tourist.
And don't forget that trip insurance is only good if you buy it before a storm is named. If you are traveling to the Caribbean between now and the end of hurricane season (November), buying trip insurance is probably not a bad idea (yes - we sell it as an affiliate - and we use it ourselves too!).
Also please remember that you can take your email off this list at any time by using the unsubscribe option in the left column of this page.
August 27, 2010
Several Storms At Once
We have an active storm cycle - two named storms, and one brewing. Earl could impact the Caribbean and needs to be watched. The system behind it, if it tracks lower than Earl, can also pose a risk to the region.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 585 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND ON
TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 1525 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 25, 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2010
Early Wednesday morning and we have Hurricane Danielle wobbling towards Bermuda, and another potentially large system behind her:
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 795 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.
2. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 7, 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000
MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 2, 2010
Possible good news on TD 4
The early "good" news on this system, at least as far as the Caribbean is concerned, is that for the moment model tracking has it north of the region: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_pos_nt4.html
90% Chance of Tropical Storm Formation
This is looking like it could become a named storm - soon:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED...
AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AS
IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 10 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
July 21, 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED
MILES...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA...AND OVER THE
ADJACENT WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ALTHOUGH A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND LIKELY AFFECT
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
July 20, 2010
Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook July 20
This system could develop into a named storm in the next 24 - 48 hours. If you are traveling to the Bahamas or Turks & Caicos, you should think about trip insurance now. Once a storm is named, it is too late to be covered!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION... SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI... EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Hot Atlantic could heat up hurricane season
From the Herald Tribune:
Related Links:
Graphic: Sea surface temperatures warmer in Atlantic | Graphics
Seas remain calm now because of dry air and strong winds over the Atlantic. But as the jet stream moves north in coming weeks, those conditions will wane, increasing chances for hurricanes, meteorologists said.
Sea temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been 2 to 3 degrees higher than normal since April, which will help fuel any storms that form.
But those temperatures -- the highest divergence from normal on record -- are only one factor in the hurricane equation."
September 19, 2009
Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Area 2 looking like more of an issue:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED... CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.
2. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL SOON BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
September 18, 2009
A little noise to end the week
It has been very quiet this week for the "heart" of hurricane season - but a couple of things have popped back on the radar of the NHC today. Area 1 is the remains of Fred and is outside the Caribbean - area 2 is looking a little better organized though and the track is not really projected as yet. If you are heading to the Caribbean or the Bahamas in the next few days, it probably bears watching:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED IS
CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
September 14, 2009
Vacation
Sorry we were on our own vacation when the last couple of storms kicked through and were not able to update as usual. Thankfully for the region Erika and Fred were both not that big a deal. We are in the heart of the season now, and things are looking relatively quiet at the moment - just the remnants of Fred still far off in the Atlantic are on the radar.
And thanks to the posters who stepped up with some local updates from the US Virgin Islands!
September 1, 2009
Early track of what could be Erika
Notice the disclaimer at the bottom of this image. These are all the computer weather models at the moment. The NHC usually takes a composite view of the various models or the two or three they like best and throw out the outliers.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009
This needs to be paid attention to:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COULD BE DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO SEE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR...MORE LIKELY...A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE... GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009
Area #1 is looking quite organized at the moment. The NHC definitely thinks this thing has potential and that the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico could be in it's path. Anyone living in the Leeward Islands should be aware of this system - the forward movement has slowed to 10 MPH currently:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT IT
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION
CENTER. HOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
August 31, 2009
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
Area 1 is looking better organized and the conditions appear favorable:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
You can get travel insurance and still be covered up until a system is formed - so if you are on the fence about it and have a Caribbean trip coming up, now would be a good time! CSA Travel Insurance insurance
August 28, 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009
This is still looking like it will develop - and now another large pulse seems to be right behind it:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 27, 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009
Area 1 is looking like it could become an issue. There isn't much information on the potential track however at this point. We'll be watching it closely:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
1. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 25, 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009
It is looking like area 1 from the previous post is going to become a named storm - the models seem to think so. Good news is that is looks like it will be clear of the Caribbean:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Disturbance in the Atlantic
The are marked #1 is a little better organized and the chances of it becoming a TD have been upgraded by the NHC:
August 17, 2009
Looking better for the Caribbean
Tropical Storm Ana has been downgraded again to a tropical depression and is blowing through the region south of St. Croix early Monday morning.
And Tropical Storm Bill, while still forecast to become a major storm, looks like it is tracking to miss the Caribbean basin. So while still not out of the woods totally the situation is looking much better than it did 36 hours ago.
Note - Bill is now a Hurricane:
August 16, 2009
Two Tropical Storms Heading West in Atlantic
August 14, 2009
TD2 and the thing behind it...
TD2 has revved up again, and the rather large disturbance behind it is expected to become stronger also.
Don't forget travel insurance if you are traveling to the region in the next few weeks - these storms do have the potential to impact the Caribbean region.
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SLOW REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
3. A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 12, 2009
Weak TD continues west, other disturbances form
There is lots going on but nothing serious yet:
And as the anaemic cyclone gets carried in the steering currents across the Atlantic, forecasters at the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) are also monitoring a strong tropical wave just off the west African coast which is showing signs of development.
August 11, 2009
More storms in the pipeline?
Some interesting comments in this article - along with this fact:
The Tropics start to heat up
The first real action of the season - there are a couple of tropical waves out there this morning - one in the Caribbean and one near it - and then there is TD 2:
...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER
THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
AT 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.6 WEST OR ABOUT 280
MILES...455 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN A DAY OR TWO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.4N 28.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
The good news on TD 2 is as early as it is the track does seem to be well north of the Caribbean basin for now. We'll be keeping a close eye on all of this activity this week however.
August 10, 2009
Tropical disturbance becomes better organised
It is just off the African coast, but it seems that this system is organized enough already to be on the radar of the NHC. Again - this is a long way off and a lot can happen, but the conditions at the moment seem favorable for intensification:
The Tropical Prediction Centre (TPC) in Miami says there is a 1008MB low pressure area located along a tropical wave at 14 north and 23 west that is generating clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong showers.
"Satellite imagery indicates a well defined low/mid level cyclonic circulation," the TPC says.
More here from caribbean360.com
July 20, 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2009
There is a system east of the islands, that while not forecast to become a named storm at this time, is still quite large and will make for some very wet and very windy weather over the next several days:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE WAVE MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
July 6, 2009
El Niño Variant Is Linked to Hurricanes in Atlantic
From the NY Times:
July 2, 2009
Hurricane forecaster: "pretty quiet" season
June was quiet (good thing for us as we are behind in our updating of the blog!) and it is looking like the season may be quiet overall:
Lack of formation in the early season usually is attributed to waters not yet being warm enough to provide the heat storms use as fuel.
While the eastern Atlantic Ocean, where monster storms tend to emerge, still isn't warm enough yet, the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean already are plenty warm in the early summer.
But a greater factor is wind shear, the atmospheric phenomenon that tends to kneecap weather systems before they can consolidate.
"Shear tends to be high this time of year, and it's even higher than normal this year," James Franklin, branch chief of the specialist unit at the National Hurricane Center, said this afternoon.
"We're starting off with a pattern that looks very inhibitive across the Atlantic," Franklin said.
Read the rest at the Palm Beach Post.
June 26, 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009
A little activity in the Caribbean basin this morning:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO HONDURAS. CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SPREAD
WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
April 22, 2009
Experts predict fewer hurricanes for 2009
First time I can recall seeing this headline in a few years, which makes me fear it may be wrong - from USAToday:
There will be fewer Atlantic hurricanes this season than in 2008, and fewer even than predicted only last December, according to a forecast released Tuesday.
Colorado State University's hurricane forecast team's latest prediction calls for 12 named storms, including six hurricanes. Of those six, two are expected to be major hurricanes with maximum wind speeds of 111 mph or greater. The first of the storms in the Atlantic, which are named in alphabetical order, will be Ana.
December 2, 2008
It's over!
Almost forgot that November 30th marked the end of the Hurricane Season! Here is the recap of storms from this year with links to our archives:
• Hurricane Bertha
• Tropical Storm Cristobal
• Hurricane Dolly
• Tropical Storm Edouard
• Tropical Storm Fay
• Hurricane Gustav
• Hurricane Hanna
• Hurricane Ike
• Tropical Storm Josephine
• Hurricane Kyle
• Subropical Storm Laura
• Tropical Storm Marco
• Tropical Storm Nana
• Hurricane Omar
• Tropical Depression Sixteen
• Hurricane Paloma
More here from the National Hurricane Center. And the excellent StormCarib is always worth a visit.
October 29, 2008
Tropics relatively quiet
The tropics are relatively quiet as the end of October nears. Hurricane season runs until the end of November, but the odds for a major storm this time of year greatly decrease:
October 14, 2008
The tropics are active as the season winds down
Tropical Storm Nana has petered out, but Tropical Storm Omar formed this morning and looks highly likely to affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. We also have a new tropical depression to worry about, TD 16, which is currently forecast to hug the coast of Honduras and head westward towards the Belize/Guatemala border. Keep checking the home page of the Caribbean Hurricane Blog for more information.
October 13, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008
The end of the hurricane season is in sight - but that doesn't mean we are out of the woods yet for 2008. There are a couple of areas of concern out there in the moment - one already a storm and another with the potential to become one soon:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM NANA...LOCATED ABOUT 1015 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND A PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON NANA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON NANA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.
September 25, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2008
This system (#2) is still hanging around -
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE AND HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS OCCURS...STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR STATEMENTS FROM THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES...AND ALSO HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WARNINGS.
2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
September 24, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE LOW IS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WARNINGS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
September 23, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM.
September 22, 2008
High Potential for Tropical Cyclone formation today
Another system that might affect the western Caribbean:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NEAR WESTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM PUERTO RICO INDICATE THAT 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ON PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...AND THESE RAINS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE DOMINICAN REPBULIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.
September 12, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008
Ike is the main story at the moment, but this site focusses on Caribbean weather - at the moment the NHC is watching two areas, but neither look to be that significant a threat:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE IKE...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...INCLUDING SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE...IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Hurricane policies in place for worried travelers
From CNN - some tips from the article:
- Most airlines allow one ticket change without penalty for hurricane-affected fliers
- Airlines outline specific dates and parameters for fee-free changes
- Hotels in hurricane-prone areas usually have re-booking or refund policies in place
- Cruise ships often can be re-routed to avoid major storms
September 10, 2008
Hurricane Appeal, British Red Cross
For UK residents who want to help:
September 6, 2008
Tropical update, Saturday September 7, 2008
Ike is a major hurricane on the doorstep of the Turks & Caicos - this is a dangerous storm and will be making landfall eventually on Cuba and then perhaps Louisiana (hurts just to write this):
...IKE HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH WINDS...
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
Hanna is racing up the east coast as a tropical storm with 50 MPH winds -
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...ALL OF CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC... WASHINGTON D.C...DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK HARBOR...LONG ISLAND SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Josephine is just a remnant low now -
In the path of Hurricane Ike
Hanna-Ike-Josephine storm trio isn't an anomaly
From the LA Times:
"We're in peak season in an active hurricane cycle, and this is one of the results of that," said Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and public affairs officer with the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
"We've had incidents where four or five storms have been stacked up."
September 5, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE from Carnival Cruise Lines
We are closely monitoring the progress of Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike. All of Carnival's ships will continue to operate at a safe distance from these storms. Our number one priority is the safety of our guests and crew.
We have made itinerary changes for several departures in order to provide our guests with an enjoyable shore experience, while operating the ships in the safest and most comfortable conditions:
Carnival Miracle: 8/29 departure from New York: The ship will visit Port Canaveral (Mon), Freeport (Tue) and Newport, Rhode Island (Fri).
Carnival Glory: 8/30 departure from Pt. Canaveral: The ship will visit St. Thomas (Tue) and St. Maarten (Wed)
Carnival Liberty: 8/30 departure from Miami: The ship will visit the ports of call in reverse order Ocho Rios (Mon), Grand Cayman (Tue), Cozumel (Thur).
Carnival Conquest: 8/31 departure from Galveston: The ship will visit Progreso, (Tue), Cozumel (Wed) and Grand Cayman (Thur).
Carnival Legend: 8/31 departure from Tampa: The ship will visit Key West (Mon), Cozumel (Wed), Belize (Thur) and Isla Roatan (Fri).
Carnival Triumph: 8/31 departure from Miami: The ship will cancel the calls to Half Moon Cay (Mon) and Grand Turk (Fri); and visit the scheduled ports of call of St. Thomas (Wed) and San Juan (Thur).
Carnival Sensation: 9/4 departure from Port Canaveral: The ship will replace the scheduled call in Nassau with Freeport (Sat.).
We are looking forward to welcoming our guests aboard all of the Carnival "Fun Ships." The officers, staff and crew on each of our ships are dedicated to delivering a great cruise vacation experience.
NCL Tropical Storm Update - September 5, 2008 9:00 am EST
Norwegian Cruise Line is closely monitoring the path of Hurricane Ike and Tropical Storm Hanna as the safety and security of our guests and crew is of the utmost importance.
At this time, we are not altering any of our ships' itineraries. However, we will continue to closely monitor the weather situation and depending on the projected paths of the storms, we may be required to modify some itineraries, including Norwegian Sky's itinerary for Monday, September 8, 2008.
NCL will continue to closely monitor the weather conditions and will update this information as necessary.
Tropical Weather Update from Royal Caribbean, September 4
The safety of our guests and crew members is always our foremost concern.
Given the locations and projected path of Tropical Storm Hanna, we are altering the itineraries of three ships:
Ships sailing from Port Canaveral
Sovereign of the Seas, which departed Port Canaveral Monday, September 1, will sail a revised itinerary. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday; and Key West, Florida, Wednesday, spending the night and departing Thursday morning.
The next sailing, departing Port Canaveral Friday, September 5, is expected to sail as scheduled.
Mariner of the Seas, which departed Port Canaveral Sunday, August 31, will sail a modified itinerary. The ship will not visit Coco Cay, Bahamas, Monday, but will makes its scheduled port calls in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, Wednesday; and Philipsburg, St. Maarten, Thursday.
Ships sailing from the Port of Miami
Majesty of the Seas, which departed the Port of Miami Monday, September 1, will sail a revised itinerary. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday; and visit Key West, Florida, Wednesday, spending the night and departing Thursday evening.
At this time, no other Royal Caribbean International ships are being adversely impacted by tropical weather.
September 4, 2008
In pictures: Haiti reels from storms
Some photos from Haiti here from the BBC.
After Gustav, Two More Storms Take Aim at U.S.
This piece is a little dated already - we know now that Ike is a major hurricane:
September 2, 2008
Tropical Update, Monday September 2, 2008
Here is our update on the current named storms:
Gustav is winding down over land - it will probably be a TD when the NHC comes out with their morning update:
Hanna seems to have drifted to the south a bit - it must be soaking the Turks & Caicos islands. It is also closer to Cuba and Hispaniola which can not be good news for those islands that are already drenched. Max sustained winds are 70 miles an hour. The NHC still has this heading north west at some point soon. Only time will tell.
Ike is making a brisk move westward:
AN AMSU PASS AT 0020Z PROVIDED SOME CONFIDENCE IN ESTIMATING A TRACK AT 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE MOVING BRISKLY OFF TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.
And... TD 10 (!) has formed way out in the open Atlantic:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 23.9W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
You can find all the latest NHC updates on these systems in the left hand navigation on the Hurricane blog home page.
In short - the Turks & Caicos, the Bahamas, Cuba, Hispaniola, and the US east coast from Florida to at least South Carolina need to be on alert for these next couple of storms - Hanna and Ike. TD 10 is a little too far out yet but the initial path looks to take it towards Ike's path if not a little more to the north. Again though, it is early and you never know. The NHC didn't have the jog to the south for Gustav that took it to the south coast of Jamaica, and they also had not imagine Hanna stalling around the T&C for a couple of days. The models do what they can - but every scenario is a new one. The only thing we know for sure is that the hurricane season is in full swing. Stay safe.
September 1, 2008
Tropical Weather Update from Royal Caribbean
Royal Caribbean International continues to closely monitor the path and progress of Hurricane Hanna to ensure our guests enjoy safe and comfortable cruises, and to make certain our ships steer clear of the storm.
The safety of our guests and crew members is always our foremost concern.
Given the location and projected path of Hurricane Hanna, we are altering the itinerary of four ships:
Ships sailing from Port Canaveral
Sovereign of the Seas, which departs Port Canaveral Monday, September 1, will sail a revised itinerary. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday; and Key West, Florida, Wednesday, spending the night and departing Thursday morning.
Mariner of the Seas, which departs Port Canaveral Sunday, August 31, will sail a modified itinerary. The ship will not visit Coco Cay, Bahamas, Monday, but will makes its scheduled port calls in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, Wednesday; and Philipsburg, St. Maarten, Thursday.
Ships sailing from the Port of Miami
Majesty of the Seas, which departs the Port of Miami Monday, September 1, will sail a revised itinerary. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday; be at sea Wednesday and visit Key West, Florida, Thursday.
Liberty of the Seas, which departs the Port of Miami Saturday, August 30, will sail a revised itinerary, with its ports of call simply reordered. The ship will visit Labadee, Haiti, Monday; San Juan, Puerto Rico, Tuesday; and Philipsburg, St. Maarten, Wednesday.
At this time, no other Royal Caribbean International ships are being adversely impacted by tropical weather.
We will continue to closely monitor weather conditions and will update this information Tuesday, September 2, at 10:30 a.m.
Tropical Round Up
So you got out for a couple of hours and look what happens. We have been following hurricanes since we started Caribbean-On-Line in 1995 and not much in memory comes close to this. Three named storms at once, one potential huge storm all the way across the Atlantic, and a couple of other tropical waves thrown in for good measure.
The pattern seems pretty set for September here - the tropics are hot, the water is warm, and the tropical waves keep coming off of Africa at a fairly steady clip.
Gustav is drawing to an end after making landfall today, but Hanna looks like a sleeper storm - it became better organized today and grew into a hurricane while the world was watching Gustav. Hanna could be trouble for the Bahamas and eventually the east coast of the US.
And Ike is already forecast to become a hurricane in several days and take a path somewhere across the Bahamas. We will be keeping you up to speed on it all here on the hurricane blog.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2008
September is usually the peak of the hurricane season - you are seeing why:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA...ON RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE STORM HANNA...LOCATED VERY NEAR MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND ON RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE LOCATED HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.
2. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
August 31, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
Gustav, Hanna, and two more systems out in the Atlantic - a very busy Sunday for the NHC:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Tropical Update, Sunday August 31, 2008
As of Sunday morning TS Hanna is looking somewhat disorganized. The NHC has made radical changes to the path of this storm in the last couple of days, and the atmosphere surrounding it seems very unstable - so a lot could still change, from it getting sheared apart, to it becoming better organized again. We'll just have to wait and see what mother nature is up to with this one.
Hurricane Gustav came off of Cuba looking weaker than expected. Any weakness now is good news for the US Gulf Coast:
August 30, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS FROM THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 28, 2008
Wow!
The tropics are very active at the moment. This is a heck of an image if you are a weather buff:
If you are planning any travel in the Caribbean, Central America, the Gulf Coast, Florida, etc. in the next week or two you better be paying attention to the weather. I am going to take this opportunity to plug travel insurance again also - remember - you have to be covered before a storm is named to be covered!
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV...LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 305 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
1. A CONCENTRATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS PERSISTED TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE YET OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION OVER WATER. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE MOVING VERY SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO TODAY AND FRIDAY.
2. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS SPARSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
3. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND IS ABOUT TO EMERGE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
UPDATE
Area 1 just become TD 8 - this will probably become Hanna as the day goes on -
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
Area 1 is looking very ripe at the moment. Looks like we will have two named storms at the same time soon:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY BE FORMING ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
2. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MILES PER HOUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 26, 2008
The Atlantic heats up
Lots of action popping up this afternoon across the Atlantic as the dog days of August draw to an end:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED JUST INLAND ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI...AND THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY...LOCATED NEAR THE ALABAMA/TENNESSEE BORDER.
1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST- NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THEY ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
3. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 25, 2008
New system could be a tropical storm at any time
The tropical wave that the NHC has been tracking is looking more organized this morning and it seems they expect it to become a named storm at any time:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
1. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT. WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY.
2. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 22, 2008
Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
The NHC is now watching two areas for potential tropical activity. The one closer to the islands well definitely bring wind and rain with it, even if it doesn't develop into a named storm:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FAY...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.
1. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SOME DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 20 TO 25 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 15, 2008
Tropical Development Soon?
AccuWeather thinks this current system will become Tropical Storm Fay - soon:
Once away from Hispaniola, this system will probably quickly increase in strength to become Tropical Storm Fay, going from a depression to a tropical storm in mere hours. Also, its track will turn to the northwest, and its forward speed will slow. The southeastern Bahamas will begin to feel its effects Saturday morning. Again, the center of this system may be centered over land at times Saturday, this time the Bahamas. However, the Bahamas are not as large or as mountainous as Hispaniola, so their effects on this storm will not be nearly as strong, and intensification may occur.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008
The system over Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands looks like a tropical storm - guess we will have to wait for the next update from the NHC:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND IS LOCATED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT... HOWEVER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.
2. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 11, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
The NHC is looking at two areas currently that may effect the Caribbean:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
2. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
July 19, 2008
Tropical Depression THREE
This storm is on the east coast of the US - so it really isn't something that is going to garner a lot of attention from us. Still more worried about the system currently coming through the Caribbean basin:
July 18, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS JAMAICA TONIGHT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST OFF THE COASTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Area 1 looking more organized today...
July 17, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008
Still a lot of unsettled weather in the region. Area 1 is still of concern for the Caribbean.
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 455 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
1. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
FOUND A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT NO WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
2. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE MOVING INLAND TONIGHT OR FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
3. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
REMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...ESPECIALLY IF THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS
OFFSHORE...AS IT DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
July 16, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008
This thing around Barbados (1) still could turn into a system:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED A SHORT DISTANCE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BARBADOS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY COMPLETED ITS MISSION IN THE DISTURBANCE...AND FOUND A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT NO WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS EARLIER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
2. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO. REGARDLESS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TOMORROW...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
3. DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
NHC: THE TROPICS ARE VERY BUSY FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY.
Things are - busy:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TROPICS ARE VERY BUSY FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 380 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
1. DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RISING AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THIS AREA TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
3. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF NICARAGUA IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA LATE TOMORROW. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TOMORROW...WITH FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Water vapor satellite...
...image - of the yet to be named system:
Looks pretty intense at the moment.
Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 2 closeup
This doesn't look so good:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008
It looks like the Caribbean needs to be concerned about this again, especially area 2:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
1. DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.
2. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
July 15, 2008
Tropical weather update
Bertha is still chugging along out in the open Atlantic. She is not longer any threat to the Caribbean and since she has passed Bermuda we will not be putting too much focus on this storm any more.
Good news this morning from the NHC regarding the disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles:
We will continue to monitor this one closely.
July 14, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
This other system brewing up looks like it has the potential to affect the Caribbean:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS INCREASED A LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
I am worried about this one...
The NHC seems concerned about area 1 - and I am too since I am on St. Thomas for some business this week!
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
1. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED AT THE PRESENT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
July 13, 2008
More areas of concern
The NHC is also looking at two more areas for potential tropical activity this Sunday morning. One off the east coast of the US and another, larger, area that is currently in the Atlantic off the coast of South America. We will be traveling today but will keep an eye on these and post whatever updates we can as soon as we can.
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
2. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
July 2, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
The NHC is definitely watching this system that is still on the other side of the Atlantic. But now there is also a small disturbance very near the Caribbean islands:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15 MPH.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS ALSO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF UPPER- LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR OVER THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008
The NHC is definitely on top of this system even though it is so far away:
...CORRECTED TIME OF PRODUCT...
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
July 1, 2008
NHC watching a tropical wave
This thing is very far away but it has already caught the attention of the NHC:
We will keep a close eye on any development and keep you posted.
June 12, 2008
Storm Report: All quiet on the tropical front
More here.
May 29, 2008
National Hurricane Center says 1st tropical depression forms near Costa Rica
From the Canadian Press:
Senior hurricane specialist James Franklin says the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm within the next 24 hours as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua. The depression had winds of 50 km/h and was moving north at five km/h. Forecasters say it was located 169 km/h west-northwest of Cabo Blanco.
Franklin says the depression will primarily bring heavy rains rather than strong winds.
The hurricane season begins June 1.
May 16, 2008
AccuWeather: 12 named storms this hurricane season
My favorite hurricane guy, Joe Bastardi of Accuweather is looking for 12 named storms this season:
Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather's chief long-range and hurricane forecaster, said in an updated forecast he expects a total of 12 named storms in the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season.
Two or three of the named storms would likely affect energy production areas in the Gulf of Mexico, which produces 25 percent of U.S. domestic crude oil and 15 percent of domestic natural gas, Bastardi said.
"Every three years there's usually one major storm in the Gulf," Bastardi said in an interview in Houston.
April 10, 2008
2008 Hurricane Season Will Be "Well Above Average"
We heard the same thing last year, but the experts are again calling for a pretty severe hurricane season. Only time will tell.
Hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU) predict a "well above average" 2008 hurricane season, with 15 named tropical storms gathering between June 1 and November 30.
December 3, 2007
Average Atlantic hurricane season draws to an end
From AFP:
A total of 14 named storms, including six hurricanes developed in 2007, making it an average season.
Forecasters had initially expected at least 17 named storms, nine of them hurricanes to form during the six-month Atlantic season that officially ends on November 30.
"The reasons for this year's average season are challenging to explain," said Phil Klotzbach of the prominent Colorado State University hurricane forecast team.
"It is impossible to understand how all these processes interact with each other to 100-percent certainty," Klotzbach said in a report published on Tuesday, which looked at vertical wind sheer, sea surface temperatures and other elements that affect the formation of hurricanes.
Last year also had been quieter than initially feared, in sharp contrast with the record-setting 2005 Atlantic hurricane season when Katrina devastated New Orleans and part of the US Gulf coast.
"The seasonal hurricane forecasters certainly have a lot of explaining to do," said Max Mayfield, former director of the National Hurricane Center.
"The last couple of years have humbled the seasonal hurricane forecasters and pointed out that we have a lot more to learn before we can do accurate seasonal forecasts," he told The Miami Herald.
While there were fewer hurricanes than initially anticipated this year, two of those that formed in the Caribbean hit land with rare fury, packing maximum sustained winds of more than 249 kilometers (155 miles) per hour. That marked the first time on record that two Atlantic hurricanes made landfall at the topmost category five on the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale.
In August, Hurricane Dean killed at least 29 people in a rampage through the Caribbean and Mexico. The following month, Hurricane Felix killed about 150 people and wrought a trail of devastation along Nicaragua's impoverished Caribbean coast.
November 27, 2007
Hurricane forecasters see no tropical activity
Well despite the forecasts and the media's help in scaring the hell out of everyone, we just passed another rather mild season (not to discount at all the death and destruction that did occur this year):
No tropical weather is expected today and at least through Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center in Miami reported late Monday.
The weather center in South Florida has been watching the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico since early May, when the first sub-tropical storm was identified and named. That was Andrea.
If no tropical storm develops, the 2007 season will be the second straight without significant hurricane threats to Florida - following two seasons of almost constant threats."
The season officially ends on November 30th, and while it is still possible for storms to crop up, the tropics have been so quiet that it does seem rather unlikely that another major event will occur this year.
Sad news in the world of Hurricanes
Herbert Saffir, co-creator of the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, has died:
Saffir, who lived and worked in Coral Gables, Fla., later talked to the Sun Herald about his post-Katrina visit and his desire to return.
"I'm anxious to go up and see what has been done and see if they're following some of the lessons that they should have learned after Camille. I hate to sound like that, but I think Camille's lessons were wasted, on the Gulf Coast anyway," Saffir said.
"They should have adopted tougher building codes after that. Another point is you have to have rigid enforcement of the codes. You can adopt and write a beautiful building code with all kinds of storm requirements in it. But if you don't have inspection and enforcement of the code, it's wasted."
Sadly, Saffir never got the chance to come back. Owen was trying to schedule a visit for January, but the 90-year-old who originated the Saffir-Simpson scale died Wednesday."
October 28, 2007
Tropical depression forms near Haiti
From the AP:
MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- A tropical depression moved northwest across the Caribbean on Sunday, prompting storm warnings in Haiti and watches in Cuba and Jamaica, where it could bring more than 10 inches of rain, forecasters said.
The depression, the 16th of the Atlantic hurricane system, could strengthen into a tropical storm late Sunday, when it would be named 'Noel,' according to the National Hurricane Center.
A tropical storm warning was in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border westward to Port-au-Prince, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 24 hours.
The governments of Jamaica and Cuba issued tropical storm watches in their countries.
October 9, 2007
NHC watches tropical activity in northwest Caribbean
Reuters is reporting:
An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft, previously scheduled to investigate the system later Monday, was now expected to look at the system on Tuesday if necessary, the NHC said in a tropical weather update.
Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicated that low-level circulation was broad and not well-defined.
October 1, 2007
Westerlies tearing apart potential hurricanes
From the Sun-Sentinel.com:
Called Westerlies, these winds have sheared apart a number of systems and prevented others from becoming full-blown hurricanes. Among them: Tropical Storms Chantal, Gabrielle, Ingrid and Karen.
Indeed, the winds have been so swift and persistent that it's almost as though El Niño has returned. That atmospheric condition, created by a warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, shreds storms with tenacious winds. It helped make the 2006 season relatively calm.
September 25, 2007
Caribbean Tropical Weather Update
There is a lot of tropical weather news out there, but the systems are all outside of the Caribbean and not forecast to threaten the region. Tropical Storm Jerry is far out to sea in the northern Atlantic, and Tropical Storm Karen, while closer to the Caribbean basin, is forecast on a track to remain well wide of the islands.
If you are interested in more information on these storms visit the National Hurricane Center website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.
August 15, 2007
Tropical Depression 5
We also have TD 5 in the Gulf of Mexico now. We don't monitor non-Caribbean storms too closely but we will be providing links and info for this storm should it make it to Tropical Storm status.
...LITTLE CHANGE IN DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
FREEPORT SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO
SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST OR ABOUT
390 MILES...630 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT
410 MILES...665 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOWER OR MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR
TO MAKING LANDFALL.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...24.3 N...91.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM CDT.
August 14, 2007
Little change in TD 4
Good Tuesday morning to you all - we are signing up folks for our email alerts at a record pace and I hope you are finding them useful. TD 4 was little changed according to the NHC's latest update issued at 5 AM EST. It is moving towards the west at about 21 MPH. The NHC still thinks it could become a tropical storm sometime this afternoon, and will most likely be Dean. The graphics as of this morning have it headed pretty much straight for the Antigua/St. Martin/Anguilla area by about 2 AM Sunday. Of course this could change dramatically in the next couple of days, but it seems that the Leeward islands need to start paying close attention. The next advisory is out at 11 AM EST
...LITTLE CHANGE IN DEPRESSION OVER FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.8 WEST OR ABOUT 855
MILES...1375 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1660 MILES...2670 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...12.0 N...36.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CERTAINLY NOT IMPROVED THIS
EVENING. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
ELONGATED EAST TO WEST AS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS. A QUIKSCAT PASS DURING THE
AFTERNOON CAUGHT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND IT
SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT. THE LATEST
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE ALSO SUPPORT 30 KT AND THE
CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR
WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 12.0N 35.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 12.0N 37.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 12.0N 40.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 12.2N 43.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 12.6N 46.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 13.8N 52.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 16.0N 57.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 18.5N 62.5W 90 KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
As of 11 PM EST this storm is still a tropical depression - there was some discussion that it would be a tropical storm by now but it is not organizing that quickly at the moment:
...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.0 WEST OR ABOUT 740
MILES...1190 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1780 MILES...2865 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...35.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
Next update is 5 AM EST.
August 13, 2007
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES RACING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
ATLANTIC...
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.1 WEST OR ABOUT 620
MILES...995 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1900 MILES...3060 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...11.9 N...33.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
Good radar image of the Atlantic
AccuWeather has a good animated radar of the whole Atlantic, so you can see this thing (TD 4) as it is coming across. Click the image below for the animated one from AccuWeather.
Tropical Depression 4
Well the media is already making a big deal out of this one - even though it is days away from being a definitive threat:
...FOURTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 520
MILES...840 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 2000 MILES...3220 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...12.0 N...31.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
We will be keeping a close eye on it and will keep you up to date as best we can.
Tropical storm gathers strength in Atlantic
McClatchy Newspapers is reporting:
Likely to become a tropical depression Monday, the system is an immense distance from land — 2,200 miles from the outermost Caribbean islands — and poses no immediate danger to anyone.
Still, the disturbance is the first noteworthy system to be born this year in what forecasters call the “deep tropics,” where conditions are growing ripe for development and storms have plenty of time to strengthen before they reach land.
Similar systems are lining up behind it, ready to roll off Africa and into the Atlantic, suggesting that a worrisome few weeks are ahead for residents of the hurricane zone.
“It’s a reminder that this is the time of year for things to form out there, and if you’re not ready for hurricane season, now is the time to get ready,” said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County.
Last week, government scientists predicted that the season — which started June 1 and ends Nov. 30 — soon would heat up and become unusually active.
Long-range computerized models suggest that, as the week progresses, the first of these systems will strengthen and march across the Atlantic toward the Caribbean islands, though such forecasts are subject to wide margins of error.
This really isn't a storm yet - that headline is a bit alarmist. The NHC is calling it a "special feature" at present, it is going to take several days to see what this thing turns into.
A 1006 MB LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 26W/27W S
OF 18N...IS LOCATED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12N MOVING
W 15 KT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE E OF THE CONVECTION.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
29W-33W.
August 10, 2007
High pressure keeping the tropics quiet - for now
Still not much going on as the season progresses. Not to say that can't change come September (see chart below):
August 3, 2007
Tropical Depression in Caribbean less likely
Looks like this area of weather is just not going to develop into anything major:
In an outlook issued at 10:30 p.m. EDT (0230 GMT Friday), the NHC said, "Satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with the tropical wave has decreased during the past few hours. This suggests that the system is not developing at this time and the potential for tropical depression formation has diminished."
"The tropical wave is expected to move rapidly westward bringing cloudiness and showers to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Central America during the next couple of days," it said."
The recent imagery does show it as mostly blown apart.
August 2, 2007
Possible system forming
The NHC is still acting like this isn't going to turn into much - but the latest update does make it sound like it has become a bit more organized:
It certainly looks like something in the latest images - but the upper level winds seem to be creating a shearing effect that could hamper development.
If it does develop, it may impact the western half of the Caribbean islands, especially Jamaica and Cuba. Keep an eye on this one if you have travel plans to the region - and don't forget about travel insurance!
August 1, 2007
Tropical depression may form in Atlantic
The NHC is putting out news on a possible tropical depression:
"Environmental conditions do not appear especially favorable for development," the NHC said, but it added that "there is still potential for this system to become a tropical depression during the next day or two" as it moves westward at close to 15 to 20 miles per hour.
Separately, the NHC said another large area of cloudiness and showers developed over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico in association with an old frontal zone. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next day or two as it remains nearly stationary.
The NHC will name the next tropical storm Dean.
More here from Reuters.
July 27, 2007
Hurricane Forecasters Update Predictions
Local Florida television station reporting:
WSI Corporation, a private forecasting firm has adjusted its outlook, lowering the predicted number of named storms from 15 to 14.
WSI also now predicts six of those storms will become hurricanes. Their earlier forecast had eight.
A meteorologist with the company says ocean temperatures are cooler than expected in the tropical Atlantic region, which forced the re-evaluation of their numbers.
Not really much of a dialing back, but I guess some of these private weather firms are trying to cover their tracks a bit since the season has been so quiet up to now. Maybe they will come out looking a little better than the government sources in the end - but you never know with the weather.
July 26, 2007
Worst of Atlantic hurricane season still to come
Despite the quiet out there and the scaling back by some forecasters, USAToday still manages to go with the scary headline "Worst of Atlantic hurricane season still to come":
"There's absolutely nothing out of the ordinary," Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said of the Atlantic season's first two months. "It's not slow. It's not fast."
On average, June and July produce zero to two named storms or hurricanes. So far this year there have been two. Andrea formed in early May, Barry on June 1.
There's plenty of evidence the first two months are meaningless as an indicator for the rest of the season.
July 14, 2007
No hurricanes forming despite ripe conditions
That is a great headline for Caribbean residents and travelers, but it seems that everyone is so afraid of significant storms from the constant media drumbeat hyping the hurricane season that travel to the region during this time of year is very slow. More from Florida Today:
But no weather systems are biting at those ripe conditions.
"There are a couple of tropical waves out there, but nothing of significance," Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said Friday.
The Atlantic typically warms and the air over it moistens during mid- to late summer, which can spark tropical storm activity.
July 12, 2007
Tropics remain peaceful
There have been a few weak tropical waves coming across the Atlantic but overall it is very quiet on the tropical weather front. People are actually starting to dial back their storm predictions for 2007. Here is a little more from a Louisiana newspaper:
But there's plenty of time to go in this hurricane season.
We've been expecting storms early and often over the last several years, but, on average over the long term, the first storm to reach hurricane strength appears on Aug. 14, the second on Aug. 30 and the third on Sept. 9.
There are a few tropical waves out in the Atlantic this morning and they will continue to roll out of Africa in the coming weeks, but there is nothing that is too threatening in the immediate forecast.
July 5, 2007
Tropical wave organizing
It is a way off but I guess everyone is watching very closely:
If the area of showers takes on the properties of a tropical storm - a big "if," forecasters say - it would become the third named storm of the 2007 hurricane season, Chantal.
This season, subtropical storm Andrea formed in early May and Tropical Storm Barry swirled to life in early June. Neither amounted to much.
The area that forecasters are now watching is about 1500 miles east of the Southern Windward Islands. In other words, between Africa and South America.
More here.
June 29, 2007
Tropics still quiet
Good news for Caribbean travelers and residents from the NHC:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
June 26, 2007
Tropics remain quiet
Not much is happening in the tropics, so now after all the hype we are starting to see some news reports wondering if the forecasters are wrong (again - like they were last year). It is a very peculiar thing - everyone should be happy about the lack of potentially life threatening weather... not trying to cheer it on. The Palm Beach Post has a pretty good section for hurricanes, satellite images, links, etc. - here is a recent article:
So, what's it all mean? Put up the shutters now or start drinking those gallon jugs of water? And what does El Niño have to do with it?
"Early-season storms have little or nothing to do with peak-of-season activity," said Richard Knapp, a senior forecaster at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
"Often we've had one June storm and we've had a strong peak season. And we've had Junes without a storm when the peak of the season hasn't been as strong," he said.
June 18, 2007
Tropics remain relatively quiet
Everyone seems to be on edge for this monster storm season to kick in (fueled no doubt by the never ending media accounts of an active season), but the tropics remain quiet:
The Miami center watches the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico during hurricane season from June through November.
So far, this season has been quiet, although forecasters predict an active season of storms affecting the U.S. Two of the last three seasons have seen Florida hit hard by multiple tropical storms and hurricanes.
September is historically the time for more and severe storms so it is not unusual at all to see relatively calm weather now - but the current conditions are good news for the Caribbean islands and we hope it stays this way.
June 15, 2007
Hurricane hunter might check system
From Florida Today:
The system is expected to affect Florida this weekend as the low drifts northward over the Gulf of Mexico.
"Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development, but may become more favorable during the next 48 hours as the system drifts toward the northwest," forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami said today.
This doesn't look like a very big deal at this point, and if it were to develop it wouldn't affect the Caribbean.
June 11, 2007
Hurricane forecasters are watching tropical wave off Cape Verde
Things are relatively quiet out there. The Bradenton Herald notes the following:
Because of this, development of the wave into a tropical storm "is becoming less likely," say the forecasters in Miami.
Other than the wave, the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico appear to be clear of tropical storm precursors over the next two days.
May 31, 2007
Tropical disturbances
There are suddenly two storms active in the Eastern Pacific (Alvin and Barbara), but they do not seem to be any threat to the Caribbean at the moment. The NHC has just issued a SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT for some weather that may affect Cuba and Florida however:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1150 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF COZUMEL MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS
A NON-TROPICAL LOW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
May 25, 2007
How Good Are Hurricane Forecasts?
Slate asks "How Good Are Hurricane Forecasts?" The answer seems to be - not so bad, but last year stunk:
"Not bad at all. In general, the predictions fall within a storm or two of the observed totals. Last season, though, the forecasters had a bad year. 2004's six intense hurricanes doubled most predictions. The seasonal total of nine hurricanes was also significantly higher than expected. Forecasters blamed the poor predictions on a "year [that] did not behave like any other year we have studied."
May 22, 2007
NOAA PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL 2007 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
From the NOAA - full article, with graphics, is here: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2864.htm
"For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13 to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.
Climate patterns responsible for the expected above normal 2007 hurricane activity continue to be the ongoing multi-decadal signal (the set of ocean and atmospheric conditions that spawn increased Atlantic hurricane activity), warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the El Niño/La Niña cycle.
Last year, seasonal hurricane predictions proved to be too high when an unexpected El Niño rapidly developed and created a hostile environment for Atlantic storms to form and strengthen. When storms did develop, steering currents kept most of them over the open water and away from land.
"There is some uncertainty this year as to whether or not La Niña will form, and if it does how strong it will be," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. "The Climate Prediction Center is indicating that La Niña could form in the next one to three months. If La Niña develops, storm activity will likely be in the upper end of the predicted range, or perhaps even higher depending on how strong La Niña becomes. Even if La Niña does not develop, the conditions associated with the ongoing active hurricane era still favor an above-normal season."
Bell also noted that pre-season storms, such as Subtropical Storm Andrea in early May, are not an indicator of the hurricane season ahead. "With or without Andrea, NOAA's forecast is for an above normal season."
May 21, 2007
Caribbean's off-season rates worth risk of hurricane
Article from the Miami Herald, includes the following:
• Make reservations directly with the hotel. Hotels, not Internet agencies, are more likely to negotiate with you in hopes you'll postpone rather than just cancel your trip. Good luck trying to get a real person on the phone who will help with immediate problems at an Internet agency.
• Use a travel agent for cruises, flights and hotels. You will have someone working on your behalf, and they can often arrange what you can't. They can offer immediate assistance and help with alternatives. I was in the Caribbean and had two flights canceled when Miami International Airport closed because of Hurricane Ivan. The travel agent called my hotel with alternative flights and made sure there were no additional fees. If using a travel agent costs $20 more, pay the $20 for peace of mind.
• Use a credit card. In theory, you can't be charged for something you don't receive, such as a hotel room. But this, too, can be tricky when you're trying to get a refund on your non-refundable deposit because you say a hurricane was coming but the hotel said the weather was beautiful. At least, though, you have the credit card company to speak for you.
• Buy travel insurance. Insurance offers some peace of mind, but read the fine print, preferably with Nancy Grace, before you buy. Travel agents can suggest a variety of companies such as Access America, HTH Worldwide, Travelex Insurance Services, TravelGuard and CSA Travel Protection.
May 16, 2007
New computer model gives hope for forecasting hurricane intensity
From the AP:
"The processes at the inner core are not well informed and not well predicted," senior hurricane specialist Richard Pasch said at the National Hurricane Center. "With the HWRF, we're hoping that we can analyze that middle core."
Until now, experts have mostly relied on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model which, like those before it, mainly depended on initial storm information paired with historical data for similar storms. The higher-resolution new model will consider conditions over the oceans that have never been plugged into models before.
It could take years, and some tinkering, for the new model to realize its full potential. But forecasters hope the result will be a greater understanding of storms like hurricanes Charley and Wilma, which grew substantially stronger in a matter of hours. Wilma went from being a tropical storm to the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record in a day.
The hope is that the model will better predict the strength of a hurricane when it eventually makes landfall and ultimately save lives.
The National Hurricane Center has cut its average forecast error on storm tracks in half over the past 15 years. Average track errors last year were about 55 miles on one-day forecasts, about 111 miles on two-day predictions and 169 miles on three days' ahead.
In the same period, two-day forecasts for the intensity of all tropical cyclones improved from an average of about 18 mph to about 17 mph.
"We've made those improvements in track but we've made little improvement in forecasting intensity," Pasch said. "It was what the science allows. We understand more about hurricane track than intensity."
With the HWRF, that should change. Information from hurricane hunter aircraft, satellites and other sources will immediately relay wind conditions in and around the storm, temperature, pressure, humidity and other oceanic and atmospheric conditions and analyze them to better determine the track and intensity.
Naomi Surgi, who coordinates the hurricane modeling program at the National Center for Climate Prediction in Camp Springs, Md., said using real-time data provides the most accurate forecasts.
"You have to with as much accuracy as possible describe what that hurricane is doing now," she said, adding HWRF shows great promise. "It's getting the storm right, it's getting the ocean underneath the storm right, it's getting the environment around the storm right."
The HWRF has been in development since 2001. Surgi said while improvements will begin the day after it goes operational next month, the model is expected to be used for the next 10 to 15 years.
The hurricane center's new director, Bill Proenza, has warned there is at least one major threat to forecasters' accuracy. The QuikScat weather satellite, designed to last five years, is in its seventh year of operation, and it is only a matter of time until it fails. The device gives forecasters basic storm information like wind speed and Proenza has said he is unaware of any plans to allocate an estimated $400 million to replace it.
That aside, even with the expected improvements the HWRF could bring, Surgi said meteorologists still concede they will never deliver error-free hurricane forecasts.
"We have stopped thinking in terms of 100 percent accuracy," she said, "because I don't think it will ever be realistic to expect that."
USAID Prepares for 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season in Latin America and the Caribbean
Miami, FL - The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) held a press conference concerning hurricane preparation for the 2007 season. Senior officials Greg Gotlieb, Tim Callaghan and Rene Carrillo were on-hand to provide an update on USAID's on-going preparations and disaster response capabilities.
In 2006, none of the storms that made landfall caused damage requiring USAID humanitarian assistance, however, in 2005 USAID responded to the effects of five hurricanes and one tropical storm in 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries and provided life-saving humanitarian relief to disaster affected communities. The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service forecasts for the coming season, June 1 - November 30, indicate that above-average tropical activity is expected.
In response, comprehensive preparations by USAID's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) include contingencies for emergencies, direct-action responses, and risk-management training programs for disaster response officials in Latin American and Caribbean countries. Also, a team of USAID advisors based in the San Jose, Costa Rica regional office remains available for immediate deployment throughout the region.
USAID manages a wide network of Latin American and Caribbean-based field staff who serve as direct links to the countries in the hemisphere, increasing the Agency's ability to prepare for and quickly respond to natural disasters.
If the scope of a disaster merits a robust response, a USAID Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) may be deployed to provide life-saving emergency humanitarian assistance, including short-term disaster relief items and assistance with humanitarian coordination. Relief commodities such as medical supplies, hygiene kits, plastic sheeting, water containers, and blankets are stockpiled in Miami for quick disbursement to affected countries.
In the event of an impending disaster such as a powerful hurricane, USAID may pre-position personnel and relief supplies in order to provide immediate assistance and conduct humanitarian assessments, which are crucial in providing policymakers with the means to respond appropriately to identify needs.
In order to help local and national authorities develop the capabilities needed to respond to natural disasters and to promote their self-sufficiency, USAID offers a year-round Regional Disaster Assistance Program (RDAP) to countries in the region. The course provides instruction in disaster management concepts, training methods, and technical disciplines such as search and rescue and shelter coordination. Participants gain the knowledge and skills required to replicate the training program. Since RDAP was established in 1989, nearly 43,000 people have been trained and more than 4,200 participants certified as active instructors, many of whom have gone on to conduct training in their own countries using their own resources.
For more information on USAID's disaster assistance programs, please visit: www.usaid.gov/our_work/humanitarian_assistance/disaster_assistance/.
May 11, 2007
Air Force's WC-130 crews hunt Atlantic coast hurricanes
From the U.S. Airforce:
Flying a specially equipped WC-130 Hercules, Airmen from the Air Force Reserve Command's 403rd Wing tracked their first tropical disturbance May 9 off the coast of Georgia.
Timing of the mission was reminiscent of the early start of the 2005 record-breaking-hurricane season which stirred up May 20 with Tropical Storm Adrian.
The state-of-the-art WC-130J equipped with a Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer measures surface winds directly below the aircraft.
"The SFMR will be the biggest advance I can think of to improve hurricane intensity forecasts," said Max Mayfield, the former director of the National Hurricane Center.
Data collected by the Hurricane Hunters resulted in the National Hurricane Center naming the storm Subtropical Storm Andrea.
Andrea's minimum central pressure was at 29.62 inches, moving west at 3 mph with sustained winds at 45 mph extending outward up to 115 miles.
The radiometer can also determine rainfall rates within a storm system. This information in addition to wind speeds at flight level provides structural detail of the storm.
Information collected by the Hurricane Hunters increase the accuracy of the National Hurricane Center's forecasts by as much as 30 percent. This data enables the National Hurricane Center to predict more accurately the path of storms in order to save lives and narrow areas of evacuation, center forecasters said. They expect the accuracy of their forecasts to increase with the use of the SFMR.
Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be equipped with the radiometers by the end of June with one added each month until all of the 403rd Wing's 10 WC-130J aircraft are outfitted with the SFMR pod.
May 10, 2007
Bastardi!
My favorite crazy weatherman, Joe Bastardi of Accuweather, says it is going to be rough on Florida this year:
"The highest area of risk has swung southwest from the Atlantic to Florida and the eastern and central Gulf Coast regions. In past years that exhibited the same climatological patterns we expect this season, these areas were the main target of Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms"Andrea rare May tropical storm
The Palm Beach Post is reporting:
The first named May storm in more than a quarter-century, Andrea isn't expected to strengthen much beyond its current 45 mph winds and may not even strike land, National Hurricane Center forecasters said.
May 9, 2007
Hurricane Center To Investigate Possible Storm
Experts agree 2007 to be active hurricane season
Well the AP has a story out today expecting an active hurricane season. Don't forget, they said the same thing last year, and it was a yawner. All we know for sure right now is that Hurricane Season is about 3 weeks away - June 1 is the official start date. We are going to be dusting up around here, adding articles, checking links, etc. from now until then. The article is below the fold...
5/8/2007, 8:58 p.m. CDT
By JOE STINEBAKER
The Associated Press
HOUSTON (AP) — Two national hurricane experts said Tuesday that they expect 2007 to be an especially active season, producing up to 17 tropical storms and hurricanes and a "well above average" possibility of at least one striking the United States.
Philip Klotzbach, a research associate at Colorado State University, and Joe Bastardi, the chief hurricane forecaster for AccuWeather Inc., acknowledged that similar predictions for the 2006 season were wrong but cited a more active storm cycle this year.
Klotzbach and Bastardi were addressing the Second Annual AccuWeather Hurricane Summit, a gathering of more than 100 weather experts and academics to discuss the coming season with members of the energy industry, whose business can be severely affected by storms.
"We didn't predict very well last year," Klotzbach said, noting that 2006 turned out to be an average year with 10 tropical storms and five hurricanes. None made landfall, he said, the first time since 2001 that has happened.
Klotzbach and his renowned colleague at Colorado State, Professor William Gray, issued their annual predictions April 3, forecasting a "very active" season with 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes and five "intense" hurricanes.
Klotzbach said there is a 74 percent chance of a major hurricane striking the United States, with a 49 percent chance it will hit along the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville. Storms reaching Category 3 or greater on the hurricane scale are considered major, with winds up to 130 mph.
Gray and Klotzbach revise their forecast periodically as the nation moves further into the summer hurricane season. The next update is scheduled May 31.
Although Bastardi predicts fewer storms than his counterparts, he agreed 2007 would be more active than usual. Bastardi, who said the nation is in "a very, very volatile" weather period, said he expects 13 or 14 named storms, six or seven of which will strike the U.S. coast. Bastardi said the Texas Gulf coast is twice as likely to be hit as in an average year and Florida appears four times as likely.
"We are living in a time of climatic hardship," Bastardi said. "We're in a cycle where weather extremes are more the norm and not the exception."
Klotzbach acknowledged forecasts made earlier in the hurricane season, such as those in June or July, are less reliable than those in August or later, when the more serious storm season begins.
Bastardi, who forecasts for the world's largest private weather service, said he fears climatic conditions could lead to storms that intensify relatively late in their life when they are closer to landfall.
Gray, a professor of atmospheric science and the nation's best-known hurricane forecaster, focused on what he called the "grossly exaggerated" claims that increased carbon dioxide emissions were leading to global warming and indirectly to more hurricane activity.
"Yes, we've had some global warming, but it's mostly natural," Gray said. "This is not a crisis for us. Even if it was, there's nothing we could do about it."
Gray said a pervasive influence of political correctness had led many weather experts to refrain from criticizing the science of global warming and noted that many experts in the mid-1970s believed the planet was cooling.
He predicted that the "30-year global warming trend" would end in the next five to 10 years and that global mean temperatures in 20 years will be lower than today.
"Hurricanes are not significantly impacted by carbon dioxide increases or by global surface temperature rises," he said.
May 1, 2007
2007 Hurricane Names
Here is the list of Hurricane names for 2007 from the National Weather Center:
• Andrea
• Barry
• Chantal
• Dean
• Erin
• Felix
• Gabrielle
• Humberto
• Ingrid
• Jerry
• Karen
• Lorenzo
• Melissa
• Noel
• Olga
• Pablo
• Rebekah
• Sebastien
• Tanya
• Van
• Wendy
November 15, 2006
Hurricane Season 2006 is over!
Well - that was a very quiet season, thankfully - for most everyone (except for hardcore hurricane junkies I guess). Yes, it may have been "boring" if you are a severe weather fan, but the Caribbean needs some quiet years - both to rebuild (Grenada, Cayman) and to give travelers some confidence back and make the off season months a little easier on all the people throughout the region who depend on tourism to make a living. The Pacific is still brewing up storms (see below), but with the end of the Atlantic season two weeks behind us already, that should be it on named storms in the Caribbean for 2006. We will continue posting anything relevant we come across in the "off" season.
From Bloomberg:
Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Sergio grew stronger this morning off Mexico's Pacific Coast and may become the region's 10th hurricane of the season later today, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
Sergio, the 19th named storm of the May-to-November Eastern Pacific hurricane season, churned the ocean 430 miles (692 km) south of Manzanillo with winds of 63 miles per hour (102 kilometers per hour), the Miami-based agency said. The storm has had little forward movement, said Alexio Avilla, senior hurricane specialist at the center.
October 25, 2006
Tropical storm hits Mexico, U.S. tourist missing
We really only focus on the Atlantic and Caribbean storms on this site, but there is a storm in the Pacific right now, Paul. I really hate to see stories like this:
The military, police and civil protection workers began evacuating some 1,500 people from poorly built houses as the storm took aim at the Los Cabos resort, popular with foreign visitors for its golf courses, yachting and sports fishing.
A large wave swept away a U.S. tourist from Washington state who was walking on the beach at Los Cabos. "He is considered missing. It would be very difficult for him to be found alive," said firefighter Gabriel Garcia.
Paul faded to a tropical storm from a hurricane, with winds near 45 mph (75 kph).
The storm was about 130 miles southwest of Los Cabos and was expected on Wednesday to sweep close by the resort, made up of the towns of Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo, before moving across the Sea of Cortez and hitting the mainland state of Sinaloa.
Authorities shut the Cabos San Lucas port, frustrating sports fishermen who converged on the resort this week for a major competition involving up to 200 boats.
"I hope we can fish tomorrow but we probably won't be able to. They don't want anybody getting thrown off their boats," said Dan Helzer, a retiree from California who was part of a fishing team on a boat called Black Gold.
More here.
September 28, 2006
Tropical depression forms in Atlantic
It has been a quiet season, thankfully. There is a new system in the Atlantic (from the AP):
The storm was expected to strengthen and could become a tropical storm in the next day, the National Hurricane Center said.
If the storm's winds reach 39 mph (63 kph) it would become Tropical Storm Isaac.
At 5 p.m. EDT (0900 GMT), the depression's center was located about 810 miles (1,303 kilometers) east-southeast of Bermuda and moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22.5 kph), forecasters said. It had top sustained winds near 35 mph (56 kph).
The Atlantic hurricane season began June 1 and ends Nov. 30. September is traditionally one of the busiest months of the season.
September 6, 2006
NOAA studies hurricane formation
Interesting new article about hurricane formation:
This earliest stage of intensity change is just one aspect that hurricane researchers with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami are studying this summer.
"Intensity change is NOAA's top tropical cyclone research priority as it is the most difficult component to forecast and can significantly alter how a community prepares for a landfalling storm," said Frank Marks, director of the NOAA Hurricane Research Division.
More here.
September 5, 2006
Tropical depression nears storm strength
From the AP:
"It's right on the cusp of becoming a [tropical] storm, but we don't anticipate significant strengthening," said Jamie Rhome, forecaster with the Miami-based National Hurricane Center.
The sixth depression of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season had top sustained winds near 35 mph, according to the hurricane center. It would be named Florence if it reaches tropical storm strength with winds of at least 39 mph.
At 5 a.m. ET, the depression was centered about 1,030 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and moving west-northwest near 13 mph, a path forecasters said was expected to continue for the next day.
It comes on the heels of Tropical Storm Ernesto, which was briefly the season's first hurricane before hitting Florida and North Carolina last week as a tropical storm.
August 25, 2006
Max Mayfield to retire as director of hurricane center
Big news today in the tropical weather community - Max Mayfield announced his surprise retirement. From the Miami Herald:
''No one event has caused this,'' he told shocked forecasters during the usual afternoon ''map discussion'' to review conditions in the hurricane zone. "'I've been here 34 years and as Forrest Gump said in the movie, 'I'm tired and I want to go home.' ''
The staff expected to hear only about Tropical Storm Debby and Tropical Depression 5, which is expected to grow into Tropical Storm Ernesto as it moves through the Caribbean.
Along with that, they heard the bombshell announcement, which took less than a minute.
''My last day is going to be Jan. 3,'' he told his forecasters and support staff. "Let's give it everything we've got. Now, get back to work.''
More here.
Tropical Depression 5
This thing is starting to look serious and could definitely impact the Caribbean over the next week or so:
...DEPRESSION ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST OR ABOUT 345
MILES...560 KM... SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND A MOTION
GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SHIP OBSERVATIONS IS
1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.4 N...65.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
Tropical Storm May Form Over Caribbean, Center Says
There is a new area of concern that the NHC has their eyes on:
Tropical Depression 5 was about 345 miles (560 kilometers) south of San Juan, Puerto Rico, shortly before 5 a.m. local time, according to an online advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami. The system's maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour were just 4 mph short of tropical-storm strength.
"Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight,'' the center said. "The depression is moving toward the west near 20 mph and a motion generally toward the west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so.'' If it becomes a storm, it will be called Ernesto.
More here from Bloomberg.com
July 18, 2006
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES...355 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. A SLOW TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...32.5 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
July 5, 2006
Tropical storm could form around Florida: NHC
Reuters is reporting the following:
The NHC said showers and thunderstorms were currently located over the Bahamas, central and eastern Cuba and southeastern Florida.
Over the next couple of days, the system could drift slowly westward over the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico where several of the key U.S. oil and natural gas fields and refineries are located.
The NHC said environmental conditions were unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation at this time but may become "somewhat more conducive for some slow development" during the next day or two.
The Center will call the next storm Beryl.
Elsewhere, the NHC did not expect any tropical storms to form through Thursday.
June 29, 2006
Tropical storm threat dies in Atlantic
From the News-Press.com:
The low is expected to merge with a frontal system later today, forecasters said, and will likely cause heavy rains and gusty winds through the mid-Atlantic states and New England.
June 27, 2006
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
The NHC has put out a special statement this morning about the system currently off the Georgia coast. It is not a threat to the Caribbean but we will try to follow it and keep you posted.
SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE.
RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED WITH LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
June 26, 2006
Hurricane Center: lows over Florida and far out in the Atlantic
From the HeraldToday.com:
"A broad and diffuse area of low pressure extends over the Florida Peninsula. This system, coupled with an upper-level low over the northwestern Bahamas, is enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity," said a hurricane center advisory at 5:30 a.m.
Gusty winds and continued heavy rain are possible for several days, the advisory said.
Far out in the Atlantic toward Africa, "significant development...is not expected" from the low pressure area that is east-southeast of the Windward Islands.
"Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Tuesday," the advisory said."
Things have been quiet, which is great news for Caribbean residents and visitors.
June 18, 2006
Best Caribbean options for hurricane season
From the Charlotte Observer:
Finding a dry Caribbean beach in hurricane season is always a gamble, but travelers can greatly sweeten their odds by choosing the right island.The safest bets: Aruba, Bonaire or Curacao, the so-called ABC islands, all located at the southernmost tip of the Lesser Antilles; Trinidad and Tobago, perched beyond the southern end of the Windward chain; and Margarita Island, just off the coast of Venezuela. Visit any of these islands in hurricane season, and you'll face only a 2 percent chance of encountering a serious storm, according to NOAA.
One reason is that the islands' proximity to the equator prevents the wind conditions hurricanes require. Another is that most of the major storm systems, originating in Africa at about 10 degrees north of the equator, head to the northwest across the Atlantic and are usually at a higher latitude than these islands by the time they reach the Caribbean.
And the islands most likely to be hit?
You may want to think twice about heading to Grand Bahama Island in September, the stormiest month of the year in the Caribbean. By the Caribbean Hurricane Network's accounting, that piece of paradise has been hit by 40 hurricanes over the past 150 years, averaging one every four years. That makes it one of the most storm-prone islands and one of the riskiest to visit during hurricane season. Bermuda and the Virgin Islands also frequently affected by heavy storms and hurricanes, particularly in early September to mid-October.
Weather experts are quick to point out that no island is totally hurricane-free.
"The ABCs are not out of the Caribbean hurricane zone," noted Arthur Dania, director of the Curacao-based Meteorological Service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba. "We're at the southern fringe of the zone. Although storms are rare here, they can happen," he added. The last major hurricane to slap this region directly was on Sept. 23, 1877, before storms were given names.
Travelers should also not rule out a summer or fall Caribbean cruise as too risky. Modern cruise ships are equipped with sophisticated storm-warning systems. And they have well-honed procedures in case a storm system gathers while the ship is at sea. They can also outrun hurricanes.
June 11, 2006
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
Technically this storm most likely won't be affecting the Caribbean that much - if it becomes a tropical storm the impact will be to Florida and the east coast:
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...
INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES...465 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST
FLORIDA AND ABOUT 440 MILES...710 KM...SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND
THIS TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
WESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY.
June 10, 2006
Caribbean braced for first storm
From the BBC:
There are warnings of heavy rain, flash floods and mudslides in Cuba, the Cayman Islands and western Florida.
The 2005 season was the most destructive on record with 15 hurricanes including Katrina, blamed for deaths of more than 1,300 people.
The US Climate Agency says this year is expected to be "above normal" but less active than last year.
Between 13 and 16 named storms have been predicted, of which four will be "major storms" of category three or above.
The US hurricane season started on 1 June and lasts until 30 November.
The depression was detected 80km (50 miles) southwest of Cuba's western tip at 1300 GMT, moving northwest at 19km/h.
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.
"Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today," the US National Hurricane Center said in an advisory.
Tropical depression forms in northwest Caribbean
From the AP and the Palm Beach Post:
The depression was expected to become the year's first named storm — Alberto — as it veers toward Florida but was not expected to become a hurricane.
"It will be relatively weak in terms of wind, but that doesn't mean it's going to be weak in terms of rainfall," senior hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart said.
Last year's hurricane season was the busiest and most destructive in recorded history. Hurricane Katrina alone devastated Louisiana and Mississippi and was blamed for more than 1,570 deaths in Louisiana alone.
The depression that formed Saturday, nine days after the official start of the season, had maximum sustained winds near 35 mph, just below the 39-mph threshold for a tropical storm, according to the National Hurricane Center.
At 5 p.m. EDT, the poorly organized depression was centered in the Caribbean Sea about 50 miles west of Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba, forecasters said. It was moving north-northwest near 6 mph.
The hurricane center recommended tropical storm warnings for the Cuban provinces of Pinar Del Rio and the Isle of Youth.
Over the next three days, the system was expected to move through the Yucatan Channel into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, then toward Florida where it could make landfall Monday or Tuesday somewhere between South Florida and the western tip of the Panhandle, forecasters said.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006
1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HONDURAS AND WESTERN
CUBA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BRINGING SQUALLS AND
ADDITIONAL RAINS TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
BECAUSE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR NEAR CUBA AT ANY TIME ON
SATURDAY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA.
Tropical system stirs Web bluster
Interesting article about hurricanes and the web from the St. Petersburg Times:
While meteorologists closely watch a low-pressure system near the Yucatan Peninsula, a growing legion of weather bloggers has posted theories about whether this could become the first hurricane to hit the United States this year.
“They’re all very abuzz about this — maybe out of all proportion to what’s going on,’’ said Jack Beven, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
The low pressure system could become a tropical depression today and bring rainy weather to the Tampa Bay area by Sunday.
Hurricane season started June 1. Anyone familiar with what Hurricane Katrina did to Louisiana and Mississippi last year, or what damage was done by the four hurricanes that hit Florida in 2004, knows to keep an eye on weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico.
Now, besides the usual TV and radio updates, weather blogs such as www.thestormtrack.com and flhurricane.com are blaring out warnings on the Web.
Some of the blogs are put together by qualified meteorologists, while others, such as irishtrojan.com, are the work of amateurs with no formal training. The irishtrojan.com blog is run by a 24-year-old University of Notre Dame law student and self-professed “weather nerd’’ named Brendan Loy.
More here.
First tropical storm may form
From DisasterNews.net:
This system has the potential to become TS Alberto. We will be watching it closely over the weekend.
June 9, 2006
Eight hurricanes forecast for 2006 season
From a Canadian insurance site, CanadianUnderwriter.ca:
• A 74% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 22% probability of a near-normal season and only a 4% chance of a below-normal season.
• An expectation of 14 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole; 8 of these would be hurricanes, including 3 intense hurricanes.
• A 70% probability of above-normal U.S. landfall hurricane activity, a 22% likelihood of a near-normal season and only an 8% chance of a below-normal season.
• Four tropical storm strikes on the U.S., of which 2 will be hurricanes.
TSR is an award-winning consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College London.
Is something brewing?
The latest tropical outlook from the NHC:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND PORTIONS
OF CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERING EASTERN YUCATAN AND THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM LAND.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
May 30, 2006
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
Aletta is moving out to the Pacific:
...ALETTA MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST...TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA
MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST OR ABOUT 120
MILES...195 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.
ALETTA IS MOVING WEST AT 4 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALETTA IS DIMINISHING ALONG THE
COASTLINE.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...101.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST AT 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ON ALETTA ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
May 29, 2006
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
...ALETTA WEAKENS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF THE WARNED AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120
MILES...190 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.
ALETTA IS DRIFTING WESTWARD...AND A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN REGIONS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...101.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
Tropical storm drops rain on Acapulco
From Reuters:
A fierce hurricane season last year devastated New Orleans, ravaged Mexico's Cancun resort and left hundreds of Mayan Indians buried under mud in Guatemala.
Tropical Storm Aletta sat in the Pacific, 135 miles from Acapulco in the western state of Guerrero, with maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, which said the storm could move toward land over the next day."
More here.
Haiti's Storm-Tossed Brace for New Season
Here is a report from Haiti via the Washington Post:
Now, almost two years later, Maitre, a mother of five, still lives in a skeletal dwelling of scrap metal and sticks that won't provide much shelter when the next powerful storm strikes Haiti.
"If we have another storm, I think we're all going to die," she said outside her home in Gonaives, a seaside city of dirt streets and open sewers in a region left vulnerable to storms by decades of deforestation.
Jeanne killed about 3,000 people in Gonaives and displaced many more. Today -- with the start of the new hurricane season just days away -- there is still a large fetid lake formed by floodwaters on the city's outskirts and thousands of people crammed into a shantytown that sprang up to house survivors."
More here.
While I was sleeping... Tropical Storm ALETTA
Technically this isn't a Caribbean storm (it is an Eastern Pacific storm - they have a different set of names), but it is the first named storm of the season, a few days early, and could affect travelers in Mexico:
...ALETTA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TO THE EAST OF ACAPULCO MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
ALETTA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR...AND A
CONTINUED SLOW MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN REGIONS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...16.2 N...101.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.
May 24, 2006
NOAA PREDICTS VERY ACTIVE 2006 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
On Monday the NOAA released their seasonal forecast:
The amount of storms is about the same as the Accuweather forecast. The release also has some good graphics to back up their predictions, and several links to audio files from the presentation including one from Dr. Max Mayfield.
Caribbean region prepares for Hurricane Season
From RadioJamaica.com - a little light on the reporting, but at least there is some pan-Caribbean planning going on apparently:
Representatives of a number of international agencies are also attending the meeting.
The experts say this year's hurricane season could match last year's in the number and intensity of storms.
Joe Bastardi's 2006 Hurricane Forecast
"He's a Bastardi, but he's our Bastardi"
Love him or hate him (I like him, even though he is a bit of a maniac) Joe Bastardi has his 2006 Hurricane forecast out. I think Joe is right most of the time - he is passionate about what he does, and he does it well. Accuweather has a link up to his video forecast but it is not working at the moment - if it comes back we will make a post to it. So, what is Joe saying for 2006?
There is more here, and the new Accuweather hurricane section is here.
May 17, 2006
Forecasters find new hurricane clues
There is a very interesting new article on the MSNBC site up about these "hot towers":
Using a satellite last summer to study Hurricane Rita from above, scientists discovered that towering clouds near the storm's eye were good predictors of future storm strength.
If rain falls from clouds soaring to 9 miles high, and the rain persists, winds at the surface are likely to get stronger, the study concludes."
Follow this link for the full article and graphics.
May 9, 2006
Experts See Weaker 2006 Hurricane Season
Well, I don't think anyone was saying that this coming hurricane season was going to be stronger that last year's - but it seems so far the news has been that it has the potential to be at least as strong or as dangerous. This Discovery Channel article is the first one I can recall seeing that seems to go against that consensus:
The latest hopeful sign is the recent demise of the hurricane-boosting La Niña condition in the Pacific. After that is the storm-fueling sea surface temperature in the Atlantic, which is not so hot this year.
Satellite sensors and ocean buoys show that the La Niña condition — the vast pooling of unusually cool surface water in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean — which formed late last year is now almost entirely gone. And while that does not guarantee a hurricane-free year, it's a good sign that the worst possible hurricane-making scenarios are not in the offing."
There is more here.
May 8, 2006
World's largest hurricane conference to begin Monday in Fort Lauderdale
The Sun-Sentinel.com is reporting:
By Ken Kaye
South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Posted May 7 2006
Fort Lauderdale on Monday will play host to the largest hurricane conference in the world, six months after Hurricane Wilma raked this region.
More than 5,000 people plan to attend the five-day Governor's Hurricane Conference at the Broward Convention Center, including emergency, government, law enforcement and medical workers from scores of Florida cities and counties."
More here.
May 5, 2006
Forecasters Predict an Active Atlantic Hurricane Season
From the Environment News Service:
Their updated forecast, released in late April, projects 17 named storms, of which nine will become hurricanes."
There is more here.
May 3, 2006
Mexico to host first world hurricane conference
From The People's Daily Online (Strange, but I didn't see anyone else pick this story up - this is a English language version of a Chinses news site.)
Pedro Flota Alcocer, who is head of public security in the southeast Mexico state of Quintana Roo, said participants would discuss preventative measures on a hurricane emergency.
In particular, the delegates will discuss the risk to public health and the risk of forest fires following a hurricane.
On the delegate list are representatives from countries close to the Gulf of Mexico, as well as 32 directors of Mexico's civil defense forces, and other specialists from Asia, Europe and Latin America.
Quintana Roo was hit by Hurricanes Gilbert and Wilma last year, with heavy property losses and a small number of people killed."
May 2, 2006
Test storm alert causes stir
The Caymanian Compass is reporting the following:
The false report also made the rounds through email in Grand Cayman.
The alert stated that the Government of Cuba had issued a Tropical Storm Watch for western Cuba. The centre of the storm was reported at 17.2 N 84.0 W, or approximately 230 miles southwest of Grand Cayman, and was heading due north at six knots."
More here. This is the first time I have run across this particular website - does anyone know if it is new or anything else about it?
May 1, 2006
Hurricane forecasters refining ability to make predictions
From the Scripps Howard News Service:
Gert was the product of a prolific tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa in mid-July. The northern half of the wave generated Tropical Storm Franklin near the central Bahamas July 18, with the southern branch moving across the Caribbean Sea and developing into a tropical depression July 23.
A large team of researchers was close by to measure all the ingredients that went into Gert's formation. The Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes Experiment _ which included scientists from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Meteorological Institute of Costa Rica and several universities _ worked out of Costa Rica for most of the month using weather aircraft and satellites to study how cloud formations in Central America interacted with storm systems coming off the Atlantic."
More here.
Cubans feeling vulnerable as another hurricane season approaches
From the Kansas City Star:
Yet for several generations, this coastal pocket on the lee side of the Sierra Maestra seemed immune from harm.
"The mountains protected us," said life-long resident Hector Martinez, 67, recalling how tempest after tempest was either deflected or robbed of its punch.
But last July, for the first time in memory, a major storm roared up the Jamaica Channel, cracked the glass in the Cabo Cruz lighthouse, and raked the promontory with winds as high as 145 mph.
Hurricane Dennis killed 16 people in Cuba, including 13 in Granma province, and destroyed or damaged tens of thousands of homes in a nation already reeling under a housing crisis.
Now, on the cusp of another hurricane season predicted to be as busy as the last, many local residents living in barely patched-up houses admit that last July's Category 4 storm shredded a sense of invulnerability that once sustained them.
More here.
April 3, 2006
Upcoming Hurricane Season Likely Strong
"It would be an unbelievable record to have another season like that, that‘s just not very realistic," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
"I think everybody is going to say we‘re going to have an above-average season here," Mayfield told a news conference at a San Juan hotel, adding: "We don‘t have the numbers worked out yet."
More here.
March 31, 2006
2006 Hurricane names
Here is the list of names for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season:
Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie William
Expert Forecasts Rough Hurricane Season
From the Washington Post:
A record 27 tropical storms formed last year, with seven becoming major hurricanes, including Katrina and three others that hit the United States.
"I think everybody is going to say we're going to have an above-average season here," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
He said the new hurricane season, beginning June 1, would not likely set a new record but the center's scientists were witnessing a trend of stronger and more frequent storms.
March 24, 2006
2004-2005 hurricane seasons 'odd but explainable'
More here.
December 7, 2005
Next Hurricane Season Predicted to Be Milder
Well - how could anyone predict it to be busier than 2005? You would have to be crazy. I just hope the scientists are right:
"It is statistically unlikely that the coming 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons will have the number of United States landfalling major hurricanes we have seen in the past two years," Gray said.
They said they expect 17 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes. They think that five will become major hurricanes with winds over 111 mph.
"The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be an active one with net tropical cyclone activity about 195 percent of the average season," Klotzbach said.
More here.
December 5, 2005
Hurricane rages on
From the AP:
The 26th named storm of a record-breaking hurricane season had top sustained winds near 75 mph, just above the threshold for a hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Epsilon first reached hurricane strength on Friday and is the 14th hurricane of the season.
At 10 p.m. Sunday, Epsilon's eye was about 630 miles west-southwest of the Azores and moving east near 9 mph.
The Atlantic hurricane season began June 1 and officially ended Wednesday.
Epsilon was only the fifth hurricane to form in December in more than 150 years of records, according to the hurricane center. The latest that a hurricane has formed in the Caribbean was Dec. 30, in 1954.
December 3, 2005
Hurricane Season 2005 Finally Ends
From the EmeraldCoast.com:
Although the hurricane season is officially over by standards of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency, Tropical Storm Epsilon continues to gain strength out in the Atlantic. This raises many questions – can a hurricane season go into overtime?
Bermuda may face more damage from Epsilon, but Florida is in a safe zone for the next few months. The waters have cooled and Floridians have already started ripping the plywood from the windows.
Hurricane Season 2005 is definitely the most deadly and destructive hurricane season on record with more than 26 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 1,400 deaths.
More here.
Looking Back at Hurricane Season 2005
From WECT: (includes a video link)
Katrina certainly was the worst storm of the season to make landfall on the morning of August 29 in southeastern Louisiana and the Mississippi coast and becoming the most costly hurricane in U.S. history, with an estimated $80 billion worth of damage.
Locally, Hurricane Ophelia passed just offshore on September 14, with the northern and western eyewall affecting our coastal counties as the center of the storm stayed just offshore.
Two of this year's storms may get a postumous upgrade as well. The National Hurricane Center is looking into whether Cindy was a minimal hurricane at landfall in Louisiana in early July, and whether Hurricane Emily briefly reached category 5 strength in the Caribbean in mid-July.
November 30, 2005
It's over!
Wow - that was a terrible hurricane season. There is going to be a lot written and studied about the 2005 season. Hopefully some lessons were learned and some new scienctific insights were made. The 2006 season is going to be looked at very warily. Epsilon is still kicking around out there in the Atlantic! We will continue to post relative Caribbean hurricane news here throughout the year so keep checking back.
November 6, 2005
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 06 2005
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT.
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH THE SIGNATURE CURVATURE MASKED BY AN
UPPER LOW TO THE N. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 14N MOVING W 15
KT. LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE MOSTLY OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ABC ISLANDS TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 66W-70W.
CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W S OF 18N MOVING
W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH S UPPER FLOW ON THE W EDGE OF AN
UPPER HIGH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
13N-20N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N29W 11N46W 9N57W 10N65W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG ARE FROM
3N-10N BETWEEN 9W-41W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE GULF
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
MOVING OUT OF THE PLAIN STATES TO OVER THE E U.S. WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS TEXAS TO N/CENTRAL MEXICO. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE N GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER REMAINING WELL TO THE N.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS
THE N GULF N OF 24N. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL AMERICA
MOVES W. AT A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N
FLORIDA SW TO THE SW GULF.
CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N82W
COVERING THE THE AREA W OF 75W AND EXTENDS N TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER HIGH IS INTERACTING
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W
OF 80W. A SECOND SMALLER UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR
16N64W EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE W TROPICAL ATLC. THIS
SCENARIO IS LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W DRY WITH ONLY
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN
MOVES OUT AND BEFORE THE TROPICAL W E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MOVES IN.
ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 50W WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW FROM 30N72W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N76W. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N72W N TO BEYOND 32N71W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SECOND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS E OF BERMUDA FROM 33N59W TO 27N61W
WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH N OF
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
28N FROM 56W-60W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLC MAINLY N OF THE REGION ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 25N41W
THROUGH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR 20N45W TO 13N47W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE E TROPICS FROM S OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 11N25W NNW TO 30N31W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE
W OF THE RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N AND GENERATING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-26N BETWEEN 34W-44W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE E TROPICAL ATLC VIRTUALLY CLEAR AND DRY.
ALTHOUGH THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES DO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
AFRICAN DUST OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N30W WITH A BROAD RIDGE
COVERING THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 50W.
September 18, 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005
...DEPRESSION SLOWLY ORGANIZING AS IT NEARS THE BAHAMAS...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AND FOR CUBA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 385 MILES... 625 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE
BAHAMAS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH... 17 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...21.9 N... 72.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.
New Storms
We suddenly have a couple of new storms that have popped up and that we will be tracking this week. Tropical Storm Philippe, which is still out in the Atlantic and appears to be heading north and away from the Caribbean, and Tropical Depression 18 (now named Rita), which is at the moment north of Haiti and forecasted at this point to make it into the Gulf of Mexico.
September 6, 2005
TD Sixteen, Hurricane Maria, TS Nate
There certainly is a lot of tropical weather out there, but the Caribbean itself is remaining out of the spotlight. Maria is gone in the Atlantic, Nate may cause problems for Bermuda, and at the moment TD 16 is dumping quite a lot of rain on the Bahamas. TD 16 could easily become TS Ophelia or Hurricane Ophelia in the coming days. It may cause problems in Florida and perhaps higher up the east coast this week.
August 24, 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY ORGANIZING AND MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA EAST COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND... THE EXUMAS... LONG
ISLAND... RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR... THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND... THE BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA... GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 11 PM EDT... 0300Z... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES... 230 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF CUBA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...23.4 N... 76.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.
August 22, 2005
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
935 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2005
...ELEVENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON IS FORMING OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS FORMING WITHIN THE DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A
SPECIAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
August 19, 2005
Experts predict upsurge in activity as Atlantic Hurricane Season peaks
Everyone has updated their forecasts and is still calling for more activity but things have gotten sort of quiet. From the Caribbean Net News.com:
Historically the 60-day period between August 15 and October 15 is regarded as the peak of the annual Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Season when the most intense activity occurs. According to the latest updated forecast, the rest of the season should see about another 10 storms being formed of which three have been forecast to make landfall in the Lesser Antilles.
In its August update for the season, the forecast team of Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea of the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at the University College of London, has increased the numbers for this season to 22 storms, 11 hurricanes, and seven major hurricanes. The numbers follow the trending from Professor Bill Gray of the Colorado State University, the United States Government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the Meteorological Institute of Cuba.
August 17, 2005
July sets Atlantic tropical storm record
From the AP:
In the United States it was the 12th warmest July on record, with the national average temperature 1.5 degree Fahrenheit above normal for the month.
The West was most affected by the excessive heat in July from the 11th to 27th. More than 200 cities broke daily high temperature records, with Denver, Colo., having its second warmest July since 1872 and equaling the all-time highest daily temperature record of 105 degrees.
Las Vegas, Nev., equaled its all-time record daily maximum temperature of 117 degrees, and had five consecutive days with temperatures exceeding 115.
U.S. rainfall was about average for the country as a whole, with unusually dry conditions across the Rockies, High Plains and the Mid-to-Upper-Mississippi Valley. There was above average wetness in the Southeast, in large part related to landfalling tropical storms.
Tropical Storm Cindy formed early on July 5 and then moved northward to make landfall near Grand Isle, La. Heavy rainfall and inland flooding accompanied Cindy as it tracked northeastward across the eastern U.S.
When Tropical Storm Dennis formed, also on July 5, it was the earliest date on record for a fourth named storm. Dennis grew into the earliest category 4 hurricane on record and made landfall near Pensacola, Fla., on the 10th, spreading heavy rainfall inland.
July also included Emily and Franklin. The formation of Tropical Storm Gert on the 24th made it a record five storms in the month.
Worldwide, the average temperature for July was 1.08 degrees above normal in records dating back to 1880, the second warmest July on record. The warmest was in 1998 with readings 1.17 above average for the month.
Land surface temperatures were warmer than average in Scandinavia, much of Asia, North Africa and the western U.S., while below average temperatures occurred in northern Canada and northern Alaska.
Sea ice across the Northern Hemisphere oceans, as measured by satellites, was lowest on record for July. For the last nine years, sea ice has been below the monthly mean for July. Sea ice generally reaches an annual minimum in September.
For the period January-July the average temperature of the planet was 1.06 degree above average, third warmest on record. The warmest was 1998 at 1.24 degree above normal.
August 15, 2005
Forecasts raised for busy U.S. hurricane season
From Reuters:
Tropical Storm Risk, a London-based storm forecaster, raised its outlook for hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year by 30 percent from its July outlook on the expectation of higher-than-normal sea temperatures and winds in the region.
There is a high probability of an above-average number of tropical storms, which can intensify into hurricanes, making landfall in the United State, the group said.
August 10, 2005
Trees Hold Record of Ancient Hurricane Activity
Interesting article from Live Science:
Further research across the Southeast uncovered a hurricane record stretching back more than two centuries. Even a storm from 1780 was revealed in the wood.
Researchers hope to apply their arboreal archeology to a broader geographic region, and to older trees, to investigate storm frequency over the past 550 years.
Since reliable accounts of historical hurricanes extend back only a century or so, the new technique could be a boon to climate researchers who wonder if global warming is altering the frequency of deadly tropical storms.
August 6, 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT AUG 06 2005
...DEPRESSION RELOCATED NORTHWARD...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 43.2 WEST OR ABOUT
1305 MILES...2100 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...19.0 N... 43.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
This depression survived the night and is becoming a little better organized. Doesn't look like a threat to the Caribbean but could impact Bermuda down the road:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT AUG 06 2005
...DEPRESSION BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1405 MILES...2265 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 41.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.
August 5, 2005
Hurricane Ivan generated monster waves - study
From Reuters:
They may have been the tallest waves ever measured with modern instruments, suggesting that prior estimates for maximum hurricane wave heights are too low, William Teague of the Naval Research Laboratory at the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi and colleagues reported.
August 1, 2005
Hurricane Hunters Investigating Caribbean Storm
From All Headline News:
The system is moving rapidly to the west at 20 mph as forecasters want to make sure that if anything is indeed developing they are prepared as the storm is expected to be near Cuba within 72-hours.
July 31, 2005
Forecasters watch march of tropical waves
From FloridaToday.com :
Currently, the systems have not shown indications of rapid development. However, a hurricane hunter aircraft may be dispatched to one as the waves march westward.
Here, according to a statement from hurricane forecasters, are the waves:
A tropical wave is producing widespread cloudiness and scattered showers from Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the northern Lesser Antilles northward over the Atlantic for a few hundred miles.
Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable and development, if any, should be slow to occur over the next couple of days.
Another tropical wave is moving westward at 20 mph through the central and southern Lesser Antilles. This system remains poorly organized.
Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable for some
slow development to occur. However, an Air Force Reserve unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon, if necessary.
July 30, 2005
Tropical system fails to pick up steam
From FloridaToday.com:
The system, located between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, is drifting westward.
"Upper-level winds are not favorable for significant development," forecasters said in a statement today.
"Although the potential for the formation of a tropical depression has disminished, squalls producing brief periods of heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds ... are possible over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today," forecasters said.
A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
July 29, 2005
Tropical Waves
There are a couple of tropical waves out there right now - the one that is passing by the Virgin Islands today does seem to have the potential to turn into something that may effect the Eastern Caribbean early next week (Jamaica). It will be interesting to see the NHCs take on this and when (if ever) they call it a tropical depression or not. We may get a break for awhile from the Atlantic waves after this one, though tropical weather may pop up in the Gulf of Mexico and the Eastern U.S. coast.
(PS - I am not a weatherman - just someone who is interested in the weather - the above is my opinion only from the reading and watching of the reports of the current conditions).
Image courtesy of http://www.wsi.com
July 28, 2005
Noted forecaster says warm Atlantic could be a hurricane alley
An article about my favorite hurricane forecaster, Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather, from the Herald Tribune (Florida):
AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi is calling for 18 named storms this season, with the United States being hit another six times in the months to come.
He says much of his call for more East Coast action has to do with water temperatures in the Atlantic.
Bastardi leads a parade of long-range hurricane forecast revisions due out at this time each year.
July 11, 2005
The potential Emily & Franklin are on the move...
My favorite hurricane person/weather man Joe Bastardi says that T.D. 5 and what will become T.D. 6 (just rolling off Africa) look like the potential hurricanes Emily and Franklin. It is pretty far out time wise but the European model is showing these two storms making their way through the region as hurricanes. We will keep you posted and look forward to any updates you can send our way as the week progresses.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON JUL 11 2005
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1030 MILES...1655 KM... EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED...BUT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...10.6 N... 46.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON JUL 11 2005
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1120 MILES...1800 KM... EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
ON TUESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...10.3 N... 44.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.
July 5, 2005
Recent Tropical Weather
Tropical Storm Cindy is in the Gulf of Mexico and no threat to the Caribbean. The storm to watch this week will be what is now Tropical Depression Four and could become a Hurricane (probably Dennis) sometime during the week as it nears Cuba.
June 28, 2005
Tropical Storm Calvin
There is another Pacific storm, Calvin, off the coast of Mexico. This poses no threat to the Caribbean.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CALVIN...LOCATED ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
June 18, 2005
NOAA DEPLOYS SEVEN NEW HURRICANE BUOYS
June 17, 2005 — The NOAA National Data Buoy Center launched six new weather data buoy stations designed to enhance hurricane monitoring and forecasting. The buoys have been deployed in key locations in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. The center also deployed a seventh buoy off the coast of Pensacola, Fla., re-establishing a former station. Click here for the full story.
June 15, 2005
Hurricane Center keeping eye on area of thunderstorms southeast of Jamaica
THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISORGANIZED 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 19N81W...ONE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE EASTERN END OF HAITI NEAR 20N76W...AND ANOTHER TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 17N84W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N81W ABOUT 110 NM SOUTH OF CUBA. THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER W CUBA...AND THE RESULTANT WESTERLY SHEAR ARE KEEPING ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM CUBA TO HAITI AND JAMAICA AND ADJACENT WATERS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT YESTERDAY WERE WITHIN 250 NM SOUTH OF HAITI AND IN EASTERN JAMAICA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN HAITI MAY ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE HEAVY RAINS WHICH MAY CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE AT THE COAST OF EASTERN CUBA FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 76W. THE UPPER LOW IS KEEPING MOST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN UNDER AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BECAUSE OF THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS EAST OF THE SFC LOW FROM THE ABC ISLANDS NE ACROSS GUADELOUPE...WHICH IS FUNNELING MOST OF THE MOISTURE N OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE FAVORED AREA OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE W CARIBBEAN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLC.
June 8, 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN...AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO
AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE
83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 340 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND
CAYMAN AND ABOUT 290 MILES... 470 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH
... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY IN RAIN BANDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE DEPRESSION IS PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PARTICULARLY
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N... 83.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.
First tropical depression forms
From CNN:
Wednesday, June 8, 2005 Posted: 8:45 PM EDT (0045 GMT)
MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- The first tropical depression of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season formed Wednesday in the northwest Caribbean, prompting Cuba to issue a tropical storm watch.
Read the rest here.
NOAA UNVEILS ‘STORM TRACKER’ TO FOLLOW TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES
Here is something new from NOAA:
We may have a system brewing...
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING
BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. EVEN IF THE
SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
AFFECTING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
June 6, 2005
Latest Tropical Outlook
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THIS WEATHER
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
June 3, 2005
All quiet
The latest tropical outlook confirms that not much is happening yet:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA...FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.
A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
FORECASTER AVILA
June 2, 2005
Weary Floridians brace for another season of storms
From the Gainesvill Sun:
Last year's lackadaisical attitude early on was somewhat backed up by decades of little inland impact from a hurricane. In Alachua County, for example, it had been 40 years since a hurricane did more than blow loose a shingle here and there.
Today, the 2005 hurricane season begins, and there's a decided difference in the way inland Floridians are approaching this six-month period of anxiety that ends Nov. 30.
June 1, 2005
First Day of Hurricane Season
Today, June 1, marks the first day of hurricane season in the Atlantic. The season runs until the end of November. Here is an article from the St. Thomas Source this morning with more information. We will be keeping you posted here as the season progresses.
Latest Tropical Discussion
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND DIFFLUENCE. AS SUCH...CONVECTION IS RATHER ACTIVE
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 32W-36W.
W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ALONG
82W/83W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION WITH LITTLE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. ANY ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION IS MASKED BY THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND S FLOW AT
THE UPPER LEVELS.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 9N21W 10N35W 6N49W 7N60W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
36W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF
THE AXIS FROM 14W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 41W-47W. CLUSTERS
OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM
51W-60W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA
COURTESY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM AN UPPER
LOW THAT HAS MOVED N INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ACROSS THE N GULF
COAST TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 89W. THE ATTENDANT
STATIONARY FRONT IS MEANDERING ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES ALONG
31N/32N FROM THE W ATLC TO A 1004 MB LOW ALONG THE SE COAST OF
LOUISIANA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW ALONG 25N88W TO A
1006 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 19N93W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FORM 1004 MB LOW W
INTO TO TEXAS. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO IGNITE A STRONG
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH IS BEING PROPAGATED E/NE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS FORMING OVER THE NE GULF WITHIN THE
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT REGION SE OF THE SURFACE LOW. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN OVERALL MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NE AND THIS
AREA OF ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING MOST OF FLORIDA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD INTO THE W ATLC AND THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT PERIODS OF SQUALLS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL N OF CUBA FROM 76W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS BEING RE-ENFORCED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING SE FROM OVER TEXAS WITH A SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE GULF TIL FRI WHEN THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS THE AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID-WEST MOVES TOWARD THE NE UNITED
STATES. THUS...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
AT ANY TIME OVER THE E GULF FOR TODAY. ACTIVITY COULD BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME S
FLORIDA WITH DEEP LAYERED S FLOW AND AN ALREADY MOIST ATMOSPHERE
KEEPING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE AVERAGE...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. W OF THE UPPER TROUGH...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRYING WILL PRODUCE
TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING TEXAS.
CARIBBEAN...
A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NNW OVER CENTRAL CUBA. FURTHER
E...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS S INTO E CARIBBEAN FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO JUST N
OF VENEZUELA. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONFLUENCE
RESULTING IN SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL TO E CARIBBEAN. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE S
OF 15N FROM 75W-82W. AN ACTIVE ITCZ COUPLED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 18NW OF 76W. W OF
82W...DEEP-LAYERED S FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
ENHANCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N
ACROSS W CUBA. ELSEWHERE...HAZY SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH AFRICAN
DUST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN... ESPECIALLY
E OF 75W. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/WET AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER FLOW REGIME
BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT.
ATLANTIC...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS FLORIDA EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS AGAIN MOVING INTO THE W ATLC WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS N OF
23N. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL BE GENERATED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
EXTREME S FLORIDA AS DEEP LAYERED S FLOW AND AN ALREADY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE ARE IN PLACE KEEPING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE AVERAGE... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN MAINLY POLEWARD
OF A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING ALONG 31N/32N E OF BERMUDA.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE W ATLC...AMPLE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ASSIST THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
PROPAGATE OVER THE BAHAMAS FURTHER INTO THE W ATLC. LOOKING
UPSTREAM....THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE NE
UNITED STATES COAST IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE N PORTION OF THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLC...RE-ENFORCING THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL PUSH THE NOW STATIONARY FRONT SE STARTING LATER TODAY
ENTERING THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AS EARLY AS THU WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
THROUGH 30N48W SW INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH ASSOCIATED
DIFFLUENCE GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OF 22N58W. IN THE E ATLC...
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SPAIN SW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR
29N25W AND A SECOND LOW NEAR 23N37W TO WEAK THIRD LOW NEAR
20N41W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING
NE WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ITS WAKE FROM AFRICA
WESTWARD ALONG 10N. UPPER DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE W PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE IS ASSISTING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ. THE
ITCZ...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WAVE ALONG 34W SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD W ACROSS THE ATLC WITH A WELL-DEFINED
AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES SW ALONG 32N35W TO A
1025 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N52W THEN W TO THE
BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
LATER IN THE WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC. FINALLY...AN EXPANSIVE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST
SPANS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...GENERALLY S
OF 25N TO THE ITCZ.
May 19, 2005
Hurricane ADRIAN Special Advisory number 9
WTPZ31 KNHC 191747
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ADRIAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005
...AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATES THAT ADRIAN IS A HURRICANE...
AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENTS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
HAVE UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE EASTWARD TO THE EL
SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA...AND FOR GUATEMALA FROM
SIPACATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT 120
MILES... 195 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.
ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND A
GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ADRIAN WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA LATER TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 70 MILES...110 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND
TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
REPEATING THE 11 AM PDT POSITION...12.6 N... 90.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM
PDT.
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
Tropical Storm ADRIAN Public Advisory
There is a tropical storm/potential hurricane brewing over Central America. This storm was born in the Pacific and has the name Adrian - Arlene is the first Atlantic name for this year. It is not too common for a storm to start in the Pacific and cross over into the Gulf of Mexico but that is what Adrian seems to be doing:
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2005 ...ADRIAN HEADED FOR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS... INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH..LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES... 370 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR. ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ADRIAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVEL IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 11 PM PDT POSITION...11.4 N... 91.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN
