Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



Multiple Hurricane Update

Published on September 7, 2017 6:48 PM | Comments

Hurricanes Irma and Jose continue to threaten the Caribbean region.

Tonight Irma is due north of Hispaniola and looks to blow through the Turks and Caicos overnight and tomorrow.

215356_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Jose, dangerously and cruelly looks like it may impact the northern leeward islands, the islands hardest hit by Irma, on the weekend.

204128_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

The forecast advisories:

HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY... CIEGO DE AVILA... SANCTI SPIRITUS
AND VILLA CLARA. THIS INCLUDES THE CUBAN KEYS ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE OF THESE PROVINCES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA
BEACH
* FLORIDA KEYS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH
HAITI
* HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE
MOLE ST. NICHOLAS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY... CIEGO DE AVILA... SANCTI SPIRITUS
AND VILLA CLARA.
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA
BEACH
* FLORIDA KEYS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO... HOLGUIN... LAS TUNAS AND
MATANZAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI FROM SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO PORT-AU-PRINCE
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO... HOLGUIN... LAS TUNAS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...AS WELL
AS CUBA AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 71.1W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 922 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 210SE 60SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 71.1W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 70.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.6N 73.1W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.2N 75.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.7N 77.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.4N 79.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.2N 80.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 31.5N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 36.0N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 71.1W

And for Jose:

HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST KITTS... AND NEVIS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ST. MARTIN AND SINT
MAARTEN BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 52.4W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..195NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 52.4W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 51.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.0N 54.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.6N 57.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.3N 59.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 15SE 15SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.4N 61.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.9N 65.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 25.5N 67.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.3N 67.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 52.4W



comments powered by Disqus