Caribbean Hurricane Blog : Tropical Update, Monday September 2, 2008

Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog

Tropical Update, Monday September 2, 2008

Published on September 2, 2008 5:04 AM | Comments

Here is our update on the current named storms:

Gustav is winding down over land - it will probably be a TD when the NHC comes out with their morning update:

THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE THIS EVENING AS THE STORM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. RECENT MAXIMUM DOPPLER VELOCITIES FROM THE LAKE CHARLES RADAR HAVE BEEN AROUND 65-70 KT AT ABOUT 4500 FT. THIS EQUATES TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE...THEREFORE GUSTAV IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. GUSTAV SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY... AND A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

Hanna seems to have drifted to the south a bit - it must be soaking the Turks & Caicos islands. It is also closer to Cuba and Hispaniola which can not be good news for those islands that are already drenched. Max sustained winds are 70 miles an hour. The NHC still has this heading north west at some point soon. Only time will tell.

CONVENTIONAL AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE HANNA HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WHILE MAINTAINING A PRONOUNCED EYE FEATURE IN A 02/203Z AMSU OVERPASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 KT AND T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

Ike is making a brisk move westward:

THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING WITH SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE BANDING EMBEDDED IN A LARGE SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 3.0 OR 45 KT...WHICH IS THE CURRENT INTENSITY.

AN AMSU PASS AT 0020Z PROVIDED SOME CONFIDENCE IN ESTIMATING A TRACK AT 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE MOVING BRISKLY OFF TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.

And... TD 10 (!) has formed way out in the open Atlantic:

ROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2008

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 23.9W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

You can find all the latest NHC updates on these systems in the left hand navigation on the Hurricane blog home page.

In short - the Turks & Caicos, the Bahamas, Cuba, Hispaniola, and the US east coast from Florida to at least South Carolina need to be on alert for these next couple of storms - Hanna and Ike. TD 10 is a little too far out yet but the initial path looks to take it towards Ike's path if not a little more to the north. Again though, it is early and you never know. The NHC didn't have the jog to the south for Gustav that took it to the south coast of Jamaica, and they also had not imagine Hanna stalling around the T&C for a couple of days. The models do what they can - but every scenario is a new one. The only thing we know for sure is that the hurricane season is in full swing. Stay safe.