April 10, 2008
2008 Hurricane Season Will Be "Well Above Average"
We heard the same thing last year, but the experts are again calling for a pretty severe hurricane season. Only time will tell.
Hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU) predict a "well above average" 2008 hurricane season, with 15 named tropical storms gathering between June 1 and November 30.
December 03, 2007
Average Atlantic hurricane season draws to an end
From AFP:
A total of 14 named storms, including six hurricanes developed in 2007, making it an average season.
Forecasters had initially expected at least 17 named storms, nine of them hurricanes to form during the six-month Atlantic season that officially ends on November 30.
"The reasons for this year's average season are challenging to explain," said Phil Klotzbach of the prominent Colorado State University hurricane forecast team.
"It is impossible to understand how all these processes interact with each other to 100-percent certainty," Klotzbach said in a report published on Tuesday, which looked at vertical wind sheer, sea surface temperatures and other elements that affect the formation of hurricanes.
Last year also had been quieter than initially feared, in sharp contrast with the record-setting 2005 Atlantic hurricane season when Katrina devastated New Orleans and part of the US Gulf coast.
"The seasonal hurricane forecasters certainly have a lot of explaining to do," said Max Mayfield, former director of the National Hurricane Center.
"The last couple of years have humbled the seasonal hurricane forecasters and pointed out that we have a lot more to learn before we can do accurate seasonal forecasts," he told The Miami Herald.
While there were fewer hurricanes than initially anticipated this year, two of those that formed in the Caribbean hit land with rare fury, packing maximum sustained winds of more than 249 kilometers (155 miles) per hour. That marked the first time on record that two Atlantic hurricanes made landfall at the topmost category five on the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale.
In August, Hurricane Dean killed at least 29 people in a rampage through the Caribbean and Mexico. The following month, Hurricane Felix killed about 150 people and wrought a trail of devastation along Nicaragua's impoverished Caribbean coast.
November 27, 2007
Hurricane forecasters see no tropical activity
Well despite the forecasts and the media's help in scaring the hell out of everyone, we just passed another rather mild season (not to discount at all the death and destruction that did occur this year):
No tropical weather is expected today and at least through Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center in Miami reported late Monday.
The weather center in South Florida has been watching the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico since early May, when the first sub-tropical storm was identified and named. That was Andrea.
If no tropical storm develops, the 2007 season will be the second straight without significant hurricane threats to Florida - following two seasons of almost constant threats."
The season officially ends on November 30th, and while it is still possible for storms to crop up, the tropics have been so quiet that it does seem rather unlikely that another major event will occur this year.
Sad news in the world of Hurricanes
Herbert Saffir, co-creator of the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, has died:
Saffir, who lived and worked in Coral Gables, Fla., later talked to the Sun Herald about his post-Katrina visit and his desire to return.
"I'm anxious to go up and see what has been done and see if they're following some of the lessons that they should have learned after Camille. I hate to sound like that, but I think Camille's lessons were wasted, on the Gulf Coast anyway," Saffir said.
"They should have adopted tougher building codes after that. Another point is you have to have rigid enforcement of the codes. You can adopt and write a beautiful building code with all kinds of storm requirements in it. But if you don't have inspection and enforcement of the code, it's wasted."
Sadly, Saffir never got the chance to come back. Owen was trying to schedule a visit for January, but the 90-year-old who originated the Saffir-Simpson scale died Wednesday."
October 28, 2007
Tropical depression forms near Haiti
From the AP:
MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- A tropical depression moved northwest across the Caribbean on Sunday, prompting storm warnings in Haiti and watches in Cuba and Jamaica, where it could bring more than 10 inches of rain, forecasters said.
The depression, the 16th of the Atlantic hurricane system, could strengthen into a tropical storm late Sunday, when it would be named 'Noel,' according to the National Hurricane Center.
A tropical storm warning was in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border westward to Port-au-Prince, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 24 hours.
The governments of Jamaica and Cuba issued tropical storm watches in their countries.
October 09, 2007
NHC watches tropical activity in northwest Caribbean
Reuters is reporting:
An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft, previously scheduled to investigate the system later Monday, was now expected to look at the system on Tuesday if necessary, the NHC said in a tropical weather update.
Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicated that low-level circulation was broad and not well-defined.
October 01, 2007
Westerlies tearing apart potential hurricanes
From the Sun-Sentinel.com:
Called Westerlies, these winds have sheared apart a number of systems and prevented others from becoming full-blown hurricanes. Among them: Tropical Storms Chantal, Gabrielle, Ingrid and Karen.
Indeed, the winds have been so swift and persistent that it's almost as though El Niño has returned. That atmospheric condition, created by a warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, shreds storms with tenacious winds. It helped make the 2006 season relatively calm.
September 25, 2007
Caribbean Tropical Weather Update
There is a lot of tropical weather news out there, but the systems are all outside of the Caribbean and not forecast to threaten the region. Tropical Storm Jerry is far out to sea in the northern Atlantic, and Tropical Storm Karen, while closer to the Caribbean basin, is forecast on a track to remain well wide of the islands.
If you are interested in more information on these storms visit the National Hurricane Center website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.
August 15, 2007
Tropical Depression 5
We also have TD 5 in the Gulf of Mexico now. We don't monitor non-Caribbean storms too closely but we will be providing links and info for this storm should it make it to Tropical Storm status.
...LITTLE CHANGE IN DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
FREEPORT SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO
SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST OR ABOUT
390 MILES...630 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT
410 MILES...665 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOWER OR MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR
TO MAKING LANDFALL.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...24.3 N...91.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM CDT.
August 14, 2007
Little change in TD 4
Good Tuesday morning to you all - we are signing up folks for our email alerts at a record pace and I hope you are finding them useful. TD 4 was little changed according to the NHC's latest update issued at 5 AM EST. It is moving towards the west at about 21 MPH. The NHC still thinks it could become a tropical storm sometime this afternoon, and will most likely be Dean. The graphics as of this morning have it headed pretty much straight for the Antigua/St. Martin/Anguilla area by about 2 AM Sunday. Of course this could change dramatically in the next couple of days, but it seems that the Leeward islands need to start paying close attention. The next advisory is out at 11 AM EST
...LITTLE CHANGE IN DEPRESSION OVER FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.8 WEST OR ABOUT 855
MILES...1375 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1660 MILES...2670 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...12.0 N...36.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CERTAINLY NOT IMPROVED THIS
EVENING. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
ELONGATED EAST TO WEST AS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS. A QUIKSCAT PASS DURING THE
AFTERNOON CAUGHT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND IT
SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT. THE LATEST
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE ALSO SUPPORT 30 KT AND THE
CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR
WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 12.0N 35.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 12.0N 37.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 12.0N 40.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 12.2N 43.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 12.6N 46.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 13.8N 52.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 16.0N 57.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 18.5N 62.5W 90 KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
As of 11 PM EST this storm is still a tropical depression - there was some discussion that it would be a tropical storm by now but it is not organizing that quickly at the moment:
...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.0 WEST OR ABOUT 740
MILES...1190 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1780 MILES...2865 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...35.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
Next update is 5 AM EST.
August 13, 2007
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES RACING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
ATLANTIC...
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.1 WEST OR ABOUT 620
MILES...995 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1900 MILES...3060 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...11.9 N...33.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
Good radar image of the Atlantic
AccuWeather has a good animated radar of the whole Atlantic, so you can see this thing (TD 4) as it is coming across. Click the image below for the animated one from AccuWeather.
Tropical Depression 4
Well the media is already making a big deal out of this one - even though it is days away from being a definitive threat:
...FOURTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 520
MILES...840 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 2000 MILES...3220 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...12.0 N...31.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
We will be keeping a close eye on it and will keep you up to date as best we can.
Tropical storm gathers strength in Atlantic
McClatchy Newspapers is reporting:
Likely to become a tropical depression Monday, the system is an immense distance from land — 2,200 miles from the outermost Caribbean islands — and poses no immediate danger to anyone.
Still, the disturbance is the first noteworthy system to be born this year in what forecasters call the “deep tropics,” where conditions are growing ripe for development and storms have plenty of time to strengthen before they reach land.
Similar systems are lining up behind it, ready to roll off Africa and into the Atlantic, suggesting that a worrisome few weeks are ahead for residents of the hurricane zone.
“It’s a reminder that this is the time of year for things to form out there, and if you’re not ready for hurricane season, now is the time to get ready,” said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County.
Last week, government scientists predicted that the season — which started June 1 and ends Nov. 30 — soon would heat up and become unusually active.
Long-range computerized models suggest that, as the week progresses, the first of these systems will strengthen and march across the Atlantic toward the Caribbean islands, though such forecasts are subject to wide margins of error.
This really isn't a storm yet - that headline is a bit alarmist. The NHC is calling it a "special feature" at present, it is going to take several days to see what this thing turns into.
A 1006 MB LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 26W/27W S
OF 18N...IS LOCATED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12N MOVING
W 15 KT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE E OF THE CONVECTION.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
29W-33W.
August 10, 2007
High pressure keeping the tropics quiet - for now
Still not much going on as the season progresses. Not to say that can't change come September (see chart below):

August 03, 2007
Tropical Depression in Caribbean less likely
Looks like this area of weather is just not going to develop into anything major:
In an outlook issued at 10:30 p.m. EDT (0230 GMT Friday), the NHC said, "Satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with the tropical wave has decreased during the past few hours. This suggests that the system is not developing at this time and the potential for tropical depression formation has diminished."
"The tropical wave is expected to move rapidly westward bringing cloudiness and showers to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Central America during the next couple of days," it said."
The recent imagery does show it as mostly blown apart.
August 02, 2007
Possible system forming
The NHC is still acting like this isn't going to turn into much - but the latest update does make it sound like it has become a bit more organized:
It certainly looks like something in the latest images - but the upper level winds seem to be creating a shearing effect that could hamper development.
If it does develop, it may impact the western half of the Caribbean islands, especially Jamaica and Cuba. Keep an eye on this one if you have travel plans to the region - and don't forget about travel insurance!
August 01, 2007
Tropical depression may form in Atlantic
The NHC is putting out news on a possible tropical depression:
"Environmental conditions do not appear especially favorable for development," the NHC said, but it added that "there is still potential for this system to become a tropical depression during the next day or two" as it moves westward at close to 15 to 20 miles per hour.
Separately, the NHC said another large area of cloudiness and showers developed over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico in association with an old frontal zone. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next day or two as it remains nearly stationary.
The NHC will name the next tropical storm Dean.
More here from Reuters.
July 27, 2007
Hurricane Forecasters Update Predictions
Local Florida television station reporting:
WSI Corporation, a private forecasting firm has adjusted its outlook, lowering the predicted number of named storms from 15 to 14.
WSI also now predicts six of those storms will become hurricanes. Their earlier forecast had eight.
A meteorologist with the company says ocean temperatures are cooler than expected in the tropical Atlantic region, which forced the re-evaluation of their numbers.
Not really much of a dialing back, but I guess some of these private weather firms are trying to cover their tracks a bit since the season has been so quiet up to now. Maybe they will come out looking a little better than the government sources in the end - but you never know with the weather.
July 26, 2007
Worst of Atlantic hurricane season still to come
Despite the quiet out there and the scaling back by some forecasters, USAToday still manages to go with the scary headline "Worst of Atlantic hurricane season still to come":
"There's absolutely nothing out of the ordinary," Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said of the Atlantic season's first two months. "It's not slow. It's not fast."
On average, June and July produce zero to two named storms or hurricanes. So far this year there have been two. Andrea formed in early May, Barry on June 1.
There's plenty of evidence the first two months are meaningless as an indicator for the rest of the season.
July 14, 2007
No hurricanes forming despite ripe conditions
That is a great headline for Caribbean residents and travelers, but it seems that everyone is so afraid of significant storms from the constant media drumbeat hyping the hurricane season that travel to the region during this time of year is very slow. More from Florida Today:
But no weather systems are biting at those ripe conditions.
"There are a couple of tropical waves out there, but nothing of significance," Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said Friday.
The Atlantic typically warms and the air over it moistens during mid- to late summer, which can spark tropical storm activity.
July 12, 2007
Tropics remain peaceful
There have been a few weak tropical waves coming across the Atlantic but overall it is very quiet on the tropical weather front. People are actually starting to dial back their storm predictions for 2007. Here is a little more from a Louisiana newspaper:
But there's plenty of time to go in this hurricane season.
We've been expecting storms early and often over the last several years, but, on average over the long term, the first storm to reach hurricane strength appears on Aug. 14, the second on Aug. 30 and the third on Sept. 9.
There are a few tropical waves out in the Atlantic this morning and they will continue to roll out of Africa in the coming weeks, but there is nothing that is too threatening in the immediate forecast.
July 05, 2007
Tropical wave organizing
It is a way off but I guess everyone is watching very closely:
If the area of showers takes on the properties of a tropical storm - a big "if," forecasters say - it would become the third named storm of the 2007 hurricane season, Chantal.
This season, subtropical storm Andrea formed in early May and Tropical Storm Barry swirled to life in early June. Neither amounted to much.
The area that forecasters are now watching is about 1500 miles east of the Southern Windward Islands. In other words, between Africa and South America.
More here.
June 29, 2007
Tropics still quiet
Good news for Caribbean travelers and residents from the NHC:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
June 26, 2007
Tropics remain quiet
Not much is happening in the tropics, so now after all the hype we are starting to see some news reports wondering if the forecasters are wrong (again - like they were last year). It is a very peculiar thing - everyone should be happy about the lack of potentially life threatening weather... not trying to cheer it on. The Palm Beach Post has a pretty good section for hurricanes, satellite images, links, etc. - here is a recent article:
So, what's it all mean? Put up the shutters now or start drinking those gallon jugs of water? And what does El Niño have to do with it?
"Early-season storms have little or nothing to do with peak-of-season activity," said Richard Knapp, a senior forecaster at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
"Often we've had one June storm and we've had a strong peak season. And we've had Junes without a storm when the peak of the season hasn't been as strong," he said.
June 18, 2007
Tropics remain relatively quiet
Everyone seems to be on edge for this monster storm season to kick in (fueled no doubt by the never ending media accounts of an active season), but the tropics remain quiet:
The Miami center watches the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico during hurricane season from June through November.
So far, this season has been quiet, although forecasters predict an active season of storms affecting the U.S. Two of the last three seasons have seen Florida hit hard by multiple tropical storms and hurricanes.
September is historically the time for more and severe storms so it is not unusual at all to see relatively calm weather now - but the current conditions are good news for the Caribbean islands and we hope it stays this way.
June 15, 2007
Hurricane hunter might check system
From Florida Today:
The system is expected to affect Florida this weekend as the low drifts northward over the Gulf of Mexico.
"Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development, but may become more favorable during the next 48 hours as the system drifts toward the northwest," forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami said today.
This doesn't look like a very big deal at this point, and if it were to develop it wouldn't affect the Caribbean.
June 11, 2007
Hurricane forecasters are watching tropical wave off Cape Verde
Things are relatively quiet out there. The Bradenton Herald notes the following:
Because of this, development of the wave into a tropical storm "is becoming less likely," say the forecasters in Miami.
Other than the wave, the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico appear to be clear of tropical storm precursors over the next two days.
May 31, 2007
Tropical disturbances
There are suddenly two storms active in the Eastern Pacific (Alvin and Barbara), but they do not seem to be any threat to the Caribbean at the moment. The NHC has just issued a SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT for some weather that may affect Cuba and Florida however:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1150 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF COZUMEL MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS
A NON-TROPICAL LOW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
May 25, 2007
How Good Are Hurricane Forecasts?
Slate asks "How Good Are Hurricane Forecasts?" The answer seems to be - not so bad, but last year stunk:
"Not bad at all. In general, the predictions fall within a storm or two of the observed totals. Last season, though, the forecasters had a bad year. 2004's six intense hurricanes doubled most predictions. The seasonal total of nine hurricanes was also significantly higher than expected. Forecasters blamed the poor predictions on a "year [that] did not behave like any other year we have studied."
May 22, 2007
NOAA PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL 2007 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
From the NOAA - full article, with graphics, is here: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2864.htm
"For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13 to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.
Climate patterns responsible for the expected above normal 2007 hurricane activity continue to be the ongoing multi-decadal signal (the set of ocean and atmospheric conditions that spawn increased Atlantic hurricane activity), warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the El Niño/La Niña cycle.
Last year, seasonal hurricane predictions proved to be too high when an unexpected El Niño rapidly developed and created a hostile environment for Atlantic storms to form and strengthen. When storms did develop, steering currents kept most of them over the open water and away from land.
"There is some uncertainty this year as to whether or not La Niña will form, and if it does how strong it will be," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. "The Climate Prediction Center is indicating that La Niña could form in the next one to three months. If La Niña develops, storm activity will likely be in the upper end of the predicted range, or perhaps even higher depending on how strong La Niña becomes. Even if La Niña does not develop, the conditions associated with the ongoing active hurricane era still favor an above-normal season."
Bell also noted that pre-season storms, such as Subtropical Storm Andrea in early May, are not an indicator of the hurricane season ahead. "With or without Andrea, NOAA's forecast is for an above normal season."
May 21, 2007
Caribbean's off-season rates worth risk of hurricane
Article from the Miami Herald, includes the following:
• Make reservations directly with the hotel. Hotels, not Internet agencies, are more likely to negotiate with you in hopes you'll postpone rather than just cancel your trip. Good luck trying to get a real person on the phone who will help with immediate problems at an Internet agency.
• Use a travel agent for cruises, flights and hotels. You will have someone working on your behalf, and they can often arrange what you can't. They can offer immediate assistance and help with alternatives. I was in the Caribbean and had two flights canceled when Miami International Airport closed because of Hurricane Ivan. The travel agent called my hotel with alternative flights and made sure there were no additional fees. If using a travel agent costs $20 more, pay the $20 for peace of mind.
• Use a credit card. In theory, you can't be charged for something you don't receive, such as a hotel room. But this, too, can be tricky when you're trying to get a refund on your non-refundable deposit because you say a hurricane was coming but the hotel said the weather was beautiful. At least, though, you have the credit card company to speak for you.
• Buy travel insurance. Insurance offers some peace of mind, but read the fine print, preferably with Nancy Grace, before you buy. Travel agents can suggest a variety of companies such as Access America, HTH Worldwide, Travelex Insurance Services, TravelGuard and CSA Travel Protection.
May 16, 2007
New computer model gives hope for forecasting hurricane intensity
From the AP:
"The processes at the inner core are not well informed and not well predicted," senior hurricane specialist Richard Pasch said at the National Hurricane Center. "With the HWRF, we're hoping that we can analyze that middle core."
Until now, experts have mostly relied on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model which, like those before it, mainly depended on initial storm information paired with historical data for similar storms. The higher-resolution new model will consider conditions over the oceans that have never been plugged into models before.
It could take years, and some tinkering, for the new model to realize its full potential. But forecasters hope the result will be a greater understanding of storms like hurricanes Charley and Wilma, which grew substantially stronger in a matter of hours. Wilma went from being a tropical storm to the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record in a day.
The hope is that the model will better predict the strength of a hurricane when it eventually makes landfall and ultimately save lives.
The National Hurricane Center has cut its average forecast error on storm tracks in half over the past 15 years. Average track errors last year were about 55 miles on one-day forecasts, about 111 miles on two-day predictions and 169 miles on three days' ahead.
In the same period, two-day forecasts for the intensity of all tropical cyclones improved from an average of about 18 mph to about 17 mph.
"We've made those improvements in track but we've made little improvement in forecasting intensity," Pasch said. "It was what the science allows. We understand more about hurricane track than intensity."
With the HWRF, that should change. Information from hurricane hunter aircraft, satellites and other sources will immediately relay wind conditions in and around the storm, temperature, pressure, humidity and other oceanic and atmospheric conditions and analyze them to better determine the track and intensity.
Naomi Surgi, who coordinates the hurricane modeling program at the National Center for Climate Prediction in Camp Springs, Md., said using real-time data provides the most accurate forecasts.
"You have to with as much accuracy as possible describe what that hurricane is doing now," she said, adding HWRF shows great promise. "It's getting the storm right, it's getting the ocean underneath the storm right, it's getting the environment around the storm right."
The HWRF has been in development since 2001. Surgi said while improvements will begin the day after it goes operational next month, the model is expected to be used for the next 10 to 15 years.
The hurricane center's new director, Bill Proenza, has warned there is at least one major threat to forecasters' accuracy. The QuikScat weather satellite, designed to last five years, is in its seventh year of operation, and it is only a matter of time until it fails. The device gives forecasters basic storm information like wind speed and Proenza has said he is unaware of any plans to allocate an estimated $400 million to replace it.
That aside, even with the expected improvements the HWRF could bring, Surgi said meteorologists still concede they will never deliver error-free hurricane forecasts.
"We have stopped thinking in terms of 100 percent accuracy," she said, "because I don't think it will ever be realistic to expect that."
USAID Prepares for 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season in Latin America and the Caribbean
Miami, FL - The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) held a press conference concerning hurricane preparation for the 2007 season. Senior officials Greg Gotlieb, Tim Callaghan and Rene Carrillo were on-hand to provide an update on USAID's on-going preparations and disaster response capabilities.
In 2006, none of the storms that made landfall caused damage requiring USAID humanitarian assistance, however, in 2005 USAID responded to the effects of five hurricanes and one tropical storm in 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries and provided life-saving humanitarian relief to disaster affected communities. The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service forecasts for the coming season, June 1 - November 30, indicate that above-average tropical activity is expected.
In response, comprehensive preparations by USAID's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) include contingencies for emergencies, direct-action responses, and risk-management training programs for disaster response officials in Latin American and Caribbean countries. Also, a team of USAID advisors based in the San Jose, Costa Rica regional office remains available for immediate deployment throughout the region.
USAID manages a wide network of Latin American and Caribbean-based field staff who serve as direct links to the countries in the hemisphere, increasing the Agency's ability to prepare for and quickly respond to natural disasters.
If the scope of a disaster merits a robust response, a USAID Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) may be deployed to provide life-saving emergency humanitarian assistance, including short-term disaster relief items and assistance with humanitarian coordina





