Caribbean Hurricanes

Tropical Storm Ida

We were sort of lulled into sleep here by the quiet season - sorry for not doing more reporting on Ida - but as you know we really only focus on Caribbean storms. This was pretty much (and is) a Gulf storm, but it looks like some winds did touch the westernmost tip of Cuba. There is more here from the NHC.

Henri devolves into a depression

Henri is weakening:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009 500 AM AST THU OCT 08 2009

ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR THE
ESTIMATED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...THE CONVECTION IS POORLY
ORGANIZED AND PROBABLY TRANSIENT. HENRI HAS A VERY SMALL
CIRCULATION THAT CONTINUES TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DIAGNOSED AT AROUND 20 KT BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS IF NOT SOONER. THE SHEAR IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...
HENRI OR ITS REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
200 MB ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THE
SHEAR OVER HENRI OR ITS REMNANT DISTURBANCE WILL PROBABLY LESSEN
SOMEWHAT IN A DAY OR TWO...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE SHOULD PRODUCE A LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING.

SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION CONTINUES AT AROUND 285/13.
HENRI OR ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR
EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BECOMES
INFLUENCED BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EXTREME
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

New Atlantic storm Henri expected to fizzle out

From Reuters:

MIAMI (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Henri formed in the Atlantic Ocean, east of the Caribbean's Leeward Islands, on Tuesday, but was expected to dissipate within two days, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

The eighth tropical storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season had sustained winds of 40 miles per hour (65 km per hour) and was located about 600 miles east of the northern Leewards at 5 p.m. EDT (2100 GMT), the hurricane center said.

The system was moving to the west-northwest at 18 mph on a path that would keep it well north of the Caribbean islands in the near future, the center added.

Henri was moving through an area with high wind shear, forecasters said. Wind shear is a difference in wind speeds at different altitudes that can tear apart nascent cyclones.

"The cyclone is expected to weaken to a depression over the next 24 hours and most of the global model fields show Henri dissipating by 48 hours," the hurricane center said in a statement.

Computer models disagreed on the future for the remnants of the cyclone. Several took it to the southwest in the direction of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, the island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic. One had it headed out into the open Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Henri

We haven't been paying much attention to Henri because it doesn't seem like it will affect the Caribbean. But the path is fairly close now and the remnants of it may come through the Bahamas and/or the T&C.

]]> TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009 1100 AM AST WED OCT 07 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF HENRI HAS BECOME EXPOSED AGAIN TO THE WEST OF A MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION CENTER LOOKS A LITTLE LESS WELL-DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THE ADVISORY. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT HENRI WILL ENCOUNTER A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...AND THEN COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG...CONVERGENT...NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER HOSTILE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES BY SHOWING THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD FAVOR A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OF HENRI OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED BECOME STRONGER AFTER THAT TIME...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A WESTWARD TURN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANT. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

Tropical Depression 8 forms in the Atlantic

TD 8 has formed but at the moment the forecast has it meandering harmlessly in the open Atlantic. We'll keep an eye on it and send out more alerts if the situation changes.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082009 500 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT CONVECTION AND CIRCULATION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER 12 HR OR SO...WITH THE FORECAST TRACK LIKELY TAKING THE CYCLONE NEAR AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BY 48 HR. THIS...COMBINED WITH A TONGUE OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE ENCOUNTERING CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD CAUSE DISSIPATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12 HR...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 96 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION TOWARD AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAKNESS IN THE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO...THEN TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS BEFORE DISSIPATION.

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Area 2 looking like more of an issue:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED... CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

2. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL SOON BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A little noise to end the week

It has been very quiet this week for the "heart" of hurricane season - but a couple of things have popped back on the radar of the NHC today. Area 1 is the remains of Fred and is outside the Caribbean - area 2 is looking a little better organized though and the track is not really projected as yet. If you are heading to the Caribbean or the Bahamas in the next few days, it probably bears watching:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED IS
CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Vacation

Sorry we were on our own vacation when the last couple of storms kicked through and were not able to update as usual. Thankfully for the region Erika and Fred were both not that big a deal. We are in the heart of the season now, and things are looking relatively quiet at the moment - just the remnants of Fred still far off in the Atlantic are on the radar.

And thanks to the posters who stepped up with some local updates from the US Virgin Islands!

Tropical Storm Erika 5 Day Cone

Tropical Storm Erika Open Thread

Use this post to discuss and ask questions about Tropical Storm Erika.

Tropical Storm Erika forms

Best case scenario for the Caribbean is that the initial track is just north of the region and along a similar route of this years storms - even north of the T&C and The Bahamas.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2009

...ERIKA FORMS EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF ST. MAARTEN.

AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST OR ABOUT 390
MILES...625 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.2N 57.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

Early track of what could be Erika

Notice the disclaimer at the bottom of this image. These are all the computer weather models at the moment. The NHC usually takes a composite view of the various models or the two or three they like best and throw out the outliers.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

This needs to be paid attention to:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COULD BE DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO SEE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR...MORE LIKELY...A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE... GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

Area #1 is looking quite organized at the moment. The NHC definitely thinks this thing has potential and that the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico could be in it's path. Anyone living in the Leeward Islands should be aware of this system - the forward movement has slowed to 10 MPH currently:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT IT
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION
CENTER. HOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

Area 1 is looking better organized and the conditions appear favorable:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

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