MIAMI -- Meteorologists have spent decades drastically improving predictions on where a looming hurricane could hit - warnings that potentially drive millions of people from their homes. Now, they aim to better determine how powerful those storms actually will be. Forecasters are debuting their new Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model next month which, for the first time, will take into account most data from within the storm and use it in real time to better determine its strength.

"The processes at the inner core are not well informed and not well predicted," senior hurricane specialist Richard Pasch said at the National Hurricane Center. "With the HWRF, we're hoping that we can analyze that middle core."

Until now, experts have mostly relied on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model which, like those before it, mainly depended on initial storm information paired with historical data for similar storms. The higher-resolution new model will consider conditions over the oceans that have never been plugged into models before.

It could take years, and some tinkering, for the new model to realize its full potential. But forecasters hope the result will be a greater understanding of storms like hurricanes Charley and Wilma, which grew substantially stronger in a matter of hours. Wilma went from being a tropical storm to the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record in a day.

The hope is that the model will better predict the strength of a hurricane when it eventually makes landfall and ultimately save lives.

The National Hurricane Center has cut its average forecast error on storm tracks in half over the past 15 years. Average track errors last year were about 55 miles on one-day forecasts, about 111 miles on two-day predictions and 169 miles on three days' ahead.

In the same period, two-day forecasts for the intensity of all tropical cyclones improved from an average of about 18 mph to about 17 mph.

"We've made those improvements in track but we've made little improvement in forecasting intensity," Pasch said. "It was what the science allows. We understand more about hurricane track than intensity."

With the HWRF, that should change. Information from hurricane hunter aircraft, satellites and other sources will immediately relay wind conditions in and around the storm, temperature, pressure, humidity and other oceanic and atmospheric conditions and analyze them to better determine the track and intensity.

Naomi Surgi, who coordinates the hurricane modeling program at the National Center for Climate Prediction in Camp Springs, Md., said using real-time data provides the most accurate forecasts.

"You have to with as much accuracy as possible describe what that hurricane is doing now," she said, adding HWRF shows great promise. "It's getting the storm right, it's getting the ocean underneath the storm right, it's getting the environment around the storm right."

The HWRF has been in development since 2001. Surgi said while improvements will begin the day after it goes operational next month, the model is expected to be used for the next 10 to 15 years.

The hurricane center's new director, Bill Proenza, has warned there is at least one major threat to forecasters' accuracy. The QuikScat weather satellite, designed to last five years, is in its seventh year of operation, and it is only a matter of time until it fails. The device gives forecasters basic storm information like wind speed and Proenza has said he is unaware of any plans to allocate an estimated $400 million to replace it.

That aside, even with the expected improvements the HWRF could bring, Surgi said meteorologists still concede they will never deliver error-free hurricane forecasts.

"We have stopped thinking in terms of 100 percent accuracy," she said, "because I don't think it will ever be realistic to expect that."

5/11/2007 - KEESLER AIR FORCE BASE, Miss. (AFNEWS) -- Although the 2007 Atlantic Ocean hurricane season officially starts June 1, Keesler Air Force Base's Hurricane Hunters got off to an early start.

Flying a specially equipped WC-130 Hercules, Airmen from the Air Force Reserve Command's 403rd Wing tracked their first tropical disturbance May 9 off the coast of Georgia.

Timing of the mission was reminiscent of the early start of the 2005 record-breaking-hurricane season which stirred up May 20 with Tropical Storm Adrian.

The state-of-the-art WC-130J equipped with a Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer measures surface winds directly below the aircraft.

"The SFMR will be the biggest advance I can think of to improve hurricane intensity forecasts," said Max Mayfield, the former director of the National Hurricane Center.

Data collected by the Hurricane Hunters resulted in the National Hurricane Center naming the storm Subtropical Storm Andrea.

Andrea's minimum central pressure was at 29.62 inches, moving west at 3 mph with sustained winds at 45 mph extending outward up to 115 miles.

The radiometer can also determine rainfall rates within a storm system. This information in addition to wind speeds at flight level provides structural detail of the storm.

Information collected by the Hurricane Hunters increase the accuracy of the National Hurricane Center's forecasts by as much as 30 percent. This data enables the National Hurricane Center to predict more accurately the path of storms in order to save lives and narrow areas of evacuation, center forecasters said. They expect the accuracy of their forecasts to increase with the use of the SFMR.

Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be equipped with the radiometers by the end of June with one added each month until all of the 403rd Wing's 10 WC-130J aircraft are outfitted with the SFMR pod.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007 1100 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

...ANDREA DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

ANDREA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 3 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK THE REMNANT LOW OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...29.3 N...79.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

"The highest area of risk has swung southwest from the Atlantic to Florida and the eastern and central Gulf Coast regions. In past years that exhibited the same climatological patterns we expect this season, these areas were the main target of Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms"

Three weeks before hurricane guides appear in local grocery stores, Subtropical Storm Andrea swirled off the North Florida coast Wednesday, a reminder that Mother Nature is in charge here.

The first named May storm in more than a quarter-century, Andrea isn't expected to strengthen much beyond its current 45 mph winds and may not even strike land, National Hurricane Center forecasters said.

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007 500 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

...SLOW-MOVING ANDREA REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...175 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 125 MILES
...200 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

ANDREA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY BUT GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5
MPH...7 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SLOWER-MOVING RAINBANDS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...30.8 N...80.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

Tropical Storm Sergio May Become Hurricane Off Mexico

Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Sergio grew stronger this morning off Mexico's Pacific Coast and may become the region's 10th hurricane of the season later today, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Sergio, the 19th named storm of the May-to-November Eastern Pacific hurricane season, churned the ocean 430 miles (692 km) south of Manzanillo with winds of 63 miles per hour (102 kilometers per hour), the Miami-based agency said. The storm has had little forward movement, said Alexio Avilla, senior hurricane specialist at the center.

LOS CABOS, Mexico (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Paul lashed Mexico's Baja California peninsula with rain and winds on Tuesday and high waves slamming into a beach resort washed away a U.S. tourist who is presumed dead.

The military, police and civil protection workers began evacuating some 1,500 people from poorly built houses as the storm took aim at the Los Cabos resort, popular with foreign visitors for its golf courses, yachting and sports fishing.

A large wave swept away a U.S. tourist from Washington state who was walking on the beach at Los Cabos. "He is considered missing. It would be very difficult for him to be found alive," said firefighter Gabriel Garcia.

Paul faded to a tropical storm from a hurricane, with winds near 45 mph (75 kph).

The storm was about 130 miles southwest of Los Cabos and was expected on Wednesday to sweep close by the resort, made up of the towns of Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo, before moving across the Sea of Cortez and hitting the mainland state of Sinaloa.

Authorities shut the Cabos San Lucas port, frustrating sports fishermen who converged on the resort this week for a major competition involving up to 200 boats.

"I hope we can fish tomorrow but we probably won't be able to. They don't want anybody getting thrown off their boats," said Dan Helzer, a retiree from California who was part of a fishing team on a boat called Black Gold.

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 500 AM AST FRI SEP 29 2006

...ISAAC SOMEWHAT FARTHER TO THE WEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.6 WEST OR ABOUT 585
MILES...945 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

ISAAC IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...
7 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...29.2 N...55.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.